Movies · resolved market

Will No Other Choice be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73b65af199505537a0a8bab3e75b07cd468c0e13c5c7df506e0ae361597f3c21

Rebuilt 11 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 22, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $53,823
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $53,113

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,823 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Movies
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xde04…fa37backed No	72c	2,746$1,965 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$780.82	299	26.4%79 W · 220 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No	74c	2,175$1,605 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$570.28	482	36.3%175 W · 307 L	+8.4wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2c3…4d61backed Yes	9c	1,600$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No	76c	1,509$1,140 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$368.88	130	40%52 W · 78 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x191a…9506backed Yes	32c	1,278$407 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$407.49	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc363…9fd8backed Yes	36c	1,144$415 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$415	35	22.9%8 W · 27 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	26cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes	24c	1,084$261 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260.83	365	38.1%139 W · 226 L	-19.8wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes	9c	1,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	294	23.5%69 W · 225 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-43%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe335…cd12backed Yes	19c	934$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.46	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	+1.8wins	+0.10per pick	48cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4346…2241backed Yes	12c	838$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.56	32	50%16 W · 16 L	+2.3wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+15.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x02f1…bc37backed Yes	36c	822$296 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$295.92	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.21per pick	54cpaid	-53%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4041…6f52backed Yes	30c	804.24$238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$238.24	170	17.1%29 W · 141 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes	18c	799.98$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	285	28.8%82 W · 203 L	-8.3wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed No	76c	774.42$588 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$186.77	71	36.6%26 W · 45 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x252b…b46cbacked No	67c	740.4$495 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$245.58	31	41.9%13 W · 18 L	+3.6wins	+0.12per pick	30cpaid	+77.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x90ec…62aabacked No	80c	700$560 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$140.12	38	47.4%18 W · 20 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	53cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5518…1211backed Yes	17c	697$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.49	23	47.8%11 W · 12 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	-4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked Yes	13c	652.43$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.19	131	30.5%40 W · 91 L	-7.2wins	-0.05per pick	36cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2798…5362backed Yes	8c	646.12$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	19cpaid	-80.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1f3…09e0backed Yes	19c	631$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.89	25	40%10 W · 15 L	-1.8wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7f2…1a94backed Yes	18c	600$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+1.9wins	+0.14per pick	43cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x22ec…4477backed Yes	19c	549$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.31	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes	20c	537.14$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.94	90	21.1%19 W · 71 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x671a…ee5abacked Yes	19c	513$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.47	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	33cpaid	-46.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda64…9bc5backed Yes	26c	486$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.36	18	50%9 W · 9 L	+1.9wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	+16.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe379…3c98backed Yes	11c	454$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.94	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-43.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x385f…3c30backed Yes	19c	446$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.51	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-2.3wins	-0.20per pick	36cpaid	-77.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc7c2…fcbebacked No	74c	446$330 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$115.96	10	70%7 W · 3 L	+1.4wins	+0.14per pick	56cpaid	+15.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc6cb…bbf0backed No	79c	415$328 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$86.86	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed No	74c	414.32$307 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$107.61	27	59.3%16 W · 11 L	+2.9wins	+0.11per pick	48cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd7d…5bc1backed No	79c	405$320 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84.75	24	66.7%16 W · 8 L	+4.4wins	+0.18per pick	48cpaid	+37.2%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2247…96e8backed Yes	16c	404$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.64	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	43cpaid	-24.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No	43c	372$160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$212.24	237	51.9%123 W · 114 L	+16.9wins	+0.07per pick	45cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	28c	349.57$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.51	672	32%215 W · 457 L	+14.4wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-30%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2db…9070backed Yes	20c	347.8$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	+1.0wins	+0.06per pick	22cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a3a…ca4cbacked No	68c	308$208 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$99.56	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4aab…14f4backed Yes	12c	302.25$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.8	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe918…d166backed Yes	25c	288$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	30	63.3%19 W · 11 L	+2.1wins	+0.07per pick	56cpaid	+8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes	8c	276.34$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.37	55	5.5%3 W · 52 L	-3.4wins	-0.06per pick	12cpaid	-86.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes	8c	264.56$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.64	111	4.5%5 W · 106 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06cd…e124backed Yes	22c	257$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.54	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-2.6wins	-0.18per pick	40cpaid	-64.4%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes	30c	251.83$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.74	140	15%21 W · 119 L	-6.2wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa0d9…ce11backed Yes	6c	250$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab72…b70dbacked Yes	33c	250$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.5	29	31%9 W · 20 L	-2.1wins	-0.07per pick	38cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c12…d725backed Yes	12c	245$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.4	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-1.2wins	-0.10per pick	35cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa667…84febacked No	44c	240.12$106 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$134.12	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	+0.7wins	+0.05per pick	28cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes	30c	240$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.6	80	30%24 W · 56 L	-9.2wins	-0.12per pick	42cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes	32c	235.06$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	157	39.5%62 W · 95 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2abd…74ebbacked Yes	19c	224$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.56	28	28.6%8 W · 20 L	-3.0wins	-0.11per pick	39cpaid	-53%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	30c	221$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.71	1,394	8%111 W · 1,283 L	-47.9wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-50%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6499…a5fdbacked Yes	34c	220$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.8	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c0c…6825backed Yes	32c	200.1$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.03	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.12per pick	37cpaid	-55.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No	72c	199$143 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.35	137	40.1%55 W · 82 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-23%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9081…0b1ebacked No	70c	195$136 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.83	23	52.2%12 W · 11 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	33c	185$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.13	506	33.4%169 W · 337 L	-30.0wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1ea6…32d9backed Yes	23c	172$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.56	29	34.5%10 W · 19 L	-2.7wins	-0.09per pick	44cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xabe7…129ebacked Yes	9c	160.56$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.11	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9fa5…8f79backed Yes	33c	151.79$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	74	50%37 W · 37 L	+4.8wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x22eb…ad17backed Yes	33c	151.52$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	69	55.1%38 W · 31 L	+5.8wins	+0.08per pick	47cpaid	+34%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2a10…e442backed No	75c	151$113 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.75	20	60%12 W · 8 L	+2.7wins	+0.13per pick	47cpaid	+37.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5927…672bbacked No	70c	149$105 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.33	33	66.7%22 W · 11 L	+3.1wins	+0.09per pick	57cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes	12c	144$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.99	194	40.2%78 W · 116 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4984…69d2backed No	66c	134$88 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.56	36	38.9%14 W · 22 L	-2.9wins	-0.08per pick	47cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x96e9…4b32backed No	71c	133.15$95 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.17	30	66.7%20 W · 10 L	+3.9wins	+0.13per pick	54cpaid	+52.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdb6a…f116backed No	76c	131.11$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.11	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.24per pick	76cpaid	+31.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x672b…68d2backed Yes	32c	128$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.96	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-1.1wins	-0.10per pick	46cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc802…3570backed Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	-71.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1612…eb3abacked Yes	33c	121.3$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.33per pick	33cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae9…2923backed No	73c	121$88 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.71	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	58cpaid	-11%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2c1…54d3backed Yes	33c	120$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xa7ee…421bbacked Yes	53c	119.47$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.32	16	62.5%10 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	64cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47eb…8195backed No	72c	119$85 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.88	16	62.5%10 W · 6 L	+1.7wins	+0.10per pick	52cpaid	+38.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb07…3ab2backed Yes	25c	118$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.5	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	+20.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54af…415ebacked Yes	27c	117$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.59	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f2f…a8aabacked No	78c	116$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.52	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x326e…c7b9backed No	77c	115$89 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.45	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	+1.8wins	+0.12per pick	41cpaid	+124.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xee6b…167dbacked Yes	29c	112.9$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.99	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.2wins	-0.17per pick	46cpaid	-57.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa0f5…b750backed No	78c	108$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.76	20	50%10 W · 10 L	+2.2wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x46f5…b461backed Yes	34c	104$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.36	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	64c	102$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.72	870	33.3%290 W · 580 L	-77.0wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x520d…babebacked Yes	34c	100.18$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.8	113	52.2%59 W · 54 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d6d…c063backed Yes	32c	100$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	26	42.3%11 W · 15 L	+1.4wins	+0.05per pick	37cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed No	57c	100$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43	184	44%81 W · 103 L	+7.4wins	+0.04per pick	40cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9228…e41abacked Yes	33c	100$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	28	28.6%8 W · 20 L	-1.8wins	-0.07per pick	35cpaid	-53.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed No	72c	100$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28	125	39.2%49 W · 76 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03ad…ca86backed Yes	20c	95$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x270e…2930backed Yes	43c	92.61$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	48	29.2%14 W · 34 L	+2.4wins	+0.05per pick	24cpaid	-13%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c07…0cbcbacked No	70c	88$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.4	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	-2.2wins	-0.12per pick	43cpaid	-51%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8624…b484backed Yes	30c	81$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.3	45	42.2%19 W · 26 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-18%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48f5…9dd3backed No	77c	80$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.55	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+0.8wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5374…952abacked Yes	32c	80$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.6	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	20c	79$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.94	484	14%68 W · 416 L	-39.3wins	-0.08per pick	22cpaid	-43.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xff92…d07cbacked No	76c	78.73$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.03	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	52cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9464…b4cbbacked Yes	22c	75$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	46cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes	36c	72.22$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.79	1,218	17.8%217 W · 1,001 L	-124.0wins	-0.10per pick	28cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe8fb…3fadbacked Yes	17c	70$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.9	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	32cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x21d2…3e62backed Yes	22c	68$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.96	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+1.9wins	+0.13per pick	44cpaid	+25.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x76f8…5145backed Yes	22c	66$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.52	37	43.2%16 W · 21 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac4…53c9backed Yes	37c	65$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.95	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-2.8wins	-0.14per pick	24cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5880…a675backed Yes	28c	63$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.64	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will No Other Choice be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event