TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will It Was Just an Accident be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$58,857
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$57,516

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,857 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x961a…73acbacked No8c6,419$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,915.721030%3 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+57%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes70c2,824$1,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,979.929926.4%79 W · 220 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc981…a75dbacked No6c2,630$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,478.825726.3%15 W · 42 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x454e…62b9backed Yes64c2,000$1,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,279.991136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-28.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c7d…d6ebbacked No31c1,618$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,113.8333123.9%79 W · 252 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick20cpaid-15%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb410…7736backed No8c1,593$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,460.810244.1%45 W · 57 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes70c1,100$769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$768.62857.1%16 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x270e…2930backed No27c1,056$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$772.014829.2%14 W · 34 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked No7c894.2$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$830.75894.5%4 W · 85 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-42.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x033d…af05backed No8c867$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$793.7913150.4%66 W · 65 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+18.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaef9…0acbbacked No11c827$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$736.031866.7%12 W · 6 L+4.7wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+123%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xa05d…3e96backed No25c769$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$578.293151.6%16 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+16.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No38c760.99$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.3312923.3%30 W · 99 L-7.3wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-57.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes76c731.03$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.2536538.1%139 W · 226 L-19.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa647…d77dbacked No12c613$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$536.995046%23 W · 27 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe7c…8356backed No10c600$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$537.483013.3%4 W · 26 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-48.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa57…86f5backed No7c600$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$560450%2 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick13cpaid+406%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8393…f0aebacked Yes65c582.4$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.6540%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4041…6f52backed No13c575.62$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.9217017.1%29 W · 141 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x755e…7b04backed No9c563$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512.331931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick37cpaid+2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked No40c512$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.224634.6%85 W · 161 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7eae…3562backed No14c503$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.581353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+35.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes63c450$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.762857.1%16 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+13.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6787…8884backed No9c450$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.51540%6 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+51.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45d3…53dcbacked Yes75c424$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.851844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes61c400$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.428528.8%82 W · 203 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed No38c397$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.811625%4 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-53.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No30c364.27$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.341,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes8c355.56$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.16555.5%3 W · 52 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick12cpaid-86.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6951…cb02backed Yes75c345$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.441952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fa5…8f79backed Yes66c331.15$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.447450%37 W · 37 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+9.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e9e…5f7fbacked Yes50c322.05$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.033253.1%17 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd44…f151backed Yes65c290.5$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1907839.7%31 W · 47 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-16.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54d5…b5cebacked Yes62c289$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.182450%12 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+26.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes68c288.29$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.415739.5%62 W · 95 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes67c287.9$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.1913040%52 W · 78 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-13.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0d05…305bbacked Yes70c285$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.53748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed No27c282.78$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.4517821.3%38 W · 140 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc886…696fbacked Yes64c279$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.561656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xafea…230bbacked No9c272$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.521346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+56.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5880…a675backed No25c255$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.511442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2bb…ae21backed No43c255$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.882100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+103.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e35…384fbacked No30c212$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.382853.6%15 W · 13 L+3.4wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+23.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No50c207.27$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.9516237.7%61 W · 101 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5903…f218backed Yes59c201.01$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.481435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-32.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6149…8a58backed No11c199.28$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.382433.3%8 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+35.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3734…01a3backed No38c195$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.92441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c55…8adebacked No36c184$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.761540%6 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No23c180.26$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.139021.1%19 W · 71 L0.0wins0.00per pick21cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e46…e68dbacked No11c180$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.22544%11 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b82…1712backed Yes75c177$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.931233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-36.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x22eb…ad17backed Yes73c171.14$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1256955.1%38 W · 31 L+5.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+34%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xec92…1214backed No30c171$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.74645.7%21 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fae…6853backed Yes72c167$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.243145.2%14 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe54d…c913backed No31c165$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.85837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No50c157.58$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.7950633.4%169 W · 337 L-30.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed Yes65c156.43$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.320668.9%142 W · 64 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x252b…b46cbacked Yes66c149.32$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.053141.9%13 W · 18 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick30cpaid+77.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x72fe…33c9backed Yes66c144.17$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No23c139.31$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.920841.8%87 W · 121 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f85…e5a3backed No27c134$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.481346.2%6 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15e5…9749backed No38c130.36$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.36450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+44.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x607b…f9b5backed No8c125.97$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.97520%1 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick4cpaid+151.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9720…f4d1backed No14c125$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.53243.8%14 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes64c125$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8023741.4%98 W · 139 L-0.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes65c124.62$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8126431.1%82 W · 182 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No26c120.35$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.531,21817.8%217 W · 1,001 L-124.0wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No49c120$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.7787033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfb07…3ab2backed No15c117.63$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.1933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd622…defcbacked Yes62c114$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.684348.8%21 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88c4…758bbacked No28c112$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.642343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ea6…32d9backed Yes69c106$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.142934.5%10 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-19.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed No10c100$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90934.3%4 W · 89 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-20.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x557a…9f70backed No10c100$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick56cpaid+67.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed No10c100$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90348.8%3 W · 31 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No10c100$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$902042.9%6 W · 198 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-51.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes62c100$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.65831%18 W · 40 L+0.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked No10c100$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90666.1%4 W · 62 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7ee…421bbacked No34c99.99$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$661662.5%10 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa79a…10eabacked Yes75c98.85$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7420%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd4fb…3e92backed No36c98.04$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.04742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b74…93f7backed No36c95$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.82937.9%11 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc802…3570backed No43c92.38$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.38219.5%2 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-71.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x401e…6fc9backed Yes65c91.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.2117540%70 W · 105 L-0.9wins0.00per pick40cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9551…8c45backed Yes65c90$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.591442.9%6 W · 8 L-3.3wins-0.24per pick67cpaid-40.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9be1…cb56backed No14c89$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.542060%12 W · 8 L+3.4wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+65%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xe4d9…2a4ebacked No38c84$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.082050%10 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab72…b70dbacked Yes64c78.66$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502931%9 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc0a6…2ab9backed No51c78.43$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.4319836.4%72 W · 126 L-11.1wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9ea1…6487backed Yes75c78$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.584025%10 W · 30 L-6.1wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-37.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8d54…8d9abacked Yes66c77.27$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51425%1 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.41per pick66cpaid-68.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xda77…8085backed Yes69c73$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.372650%13 W · 13 L+2.7wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+9.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Yes62c71.39$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.367125.4%18 W · 53 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-50.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd302…39f0backed Yes60c70.09$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.3620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x253f…e642backed Yes69c68$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.922437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf298…12f8backed No30c67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.92352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+15.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd091…e046backed Yes69c66.07$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.591225%3 W · 9 L-2.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-64%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcb88…6b99backed No31c64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.163327.3%9 W · 24 L-5.4wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-36.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked No24c64$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.6814015%21 W · 119 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-25.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x90ae…44adbacked No38c62$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.443951.3%20 W · 19 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.