Movies · resolved market
Will It Was Just an Accident be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d50e48a8fdf485089e1366b003841b49426b03251a375bb22472b9bbcc48dc1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,857
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,516
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,857 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x961a…73acbacked No | 8c | 6,419$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,915.72 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +57%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 70c | 2,824$1,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,979.9 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked No | 6c | 2,630$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,478.82 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x454e…62b9backed Yes | 64c | 2,000$1,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,279.99 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked No | 31c | 1,618$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,113.83 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 8c | 1,593$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,460.8 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes | 70c | 1,100$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.6 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x270e…2930backed No | 27c | 1,056$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$772.01 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 7c | 894.2$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$830.75 | 89 | 4.5%4 W · 85 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed No | 8c | 867$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$793.79 | 131 | 50.4%66 W · 65 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaef9…0acbbacked No | 11c | 827$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.03 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +4.7wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +123%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa05d…3e96backed No | 25c | 769$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.29 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 38c | 760.99$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.33 | 129 | 23.3%30 W · 99 L | -7.3wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 76c | 731.03$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.25 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…d77dbacked No | 12c | 613$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.99 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7c…8356backed No | 10c | 600$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.48 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa57…86f5backed No | 7c | 600$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +406%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8393…f0aebacked Yes | 65c | 582.4$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed No | 13c | 575.62$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.92 | 170 | 17.1%29 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755e…7b04backed No | 9c | 563$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.33 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked No | 40c | 512$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.2 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eae…3562backed No | 14c | 503$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.58 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 63c | 450$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.76 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6787…8884backed No | 9c | 450$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d3…53dcbacked Yes | 75c | 424$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.85 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 61c | 400$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.4 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed No | 38c | 397$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.81 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 30c | 364.27$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.34 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 8c | 355.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 55 | 5.5%3 W · 52 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6951…cb02backed Yes | 75c | 345$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.44 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa5…8f79backed Yes | 66c | 331.15$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.44 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…5f7fbacked Yes | 50c | 322.05$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.03 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd44…f151backed Yes | 65c | 290.5$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54d5…b5cebacked Yes | 62c | 289$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.18 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes | 68c | 288.29$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.4 | 157 | 39.5%62 W · 95 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 67c | 287.9$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.19 | 130 | 40%52 W · 78 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…305bbacked Yes | 70c | 285$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.5 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed No | 27c | 282.78$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.45 | 178 | 21.3%38 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc886…696fbacked Yes | 64c | 279$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.56 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafea…230bbacked No | 9c | 272$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.52 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5880…a675backed No | 25c | 255$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.51 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed No | 43c | 255$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +103.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e35…384fbacked No | 30c | 212$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.38 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 50c | 207.27$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.95 | 162 | 37.7%61 W · 101 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed Yes | 59c | 201.01$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.48 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed No | 11c | 199.28$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.38 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…01a3backed No | 38c | 195$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.9 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…8adebacked No | 36c | 184$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.76 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 23c | 180.26$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.13 | 90 | 21.1%19 W · 71 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e46…e68dbacked No | 11c | 180$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.2 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b82…1712backed Yes | 75c | 177$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.93 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22eb…ad17backed Yes | 73c | 171.14$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +34%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed No | 30c | 171$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.7 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fae…6853backed Yes | 72c | 167$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.24 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…c913backed No | 31c | 165$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.85 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 50c | 157.58$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.79 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 65c | 156.43$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.3 | 206 | 68.9%142 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252b…b46cbacked Yes | 66c | 149.32$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.05 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…33c9backed Yes | 66c | 144.17$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 23c | 139.31$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.9 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f85…e5a3backed No | 27c | 134$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.48 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15e5…9749backed No | 38c | 130.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x607b…f9b5backed No | 8c | 125.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 4cpaid | +151.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…f4d1backed No | 14c | 125$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.5 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 64c | 125$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 237 | 41.4%98 W · 139 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 65c | 124.62$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 26c | 120.35$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.53 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 49c | 120$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.77 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…3ab2backed No | 15c | 117.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.1 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked Yes | 62c | 114$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.68 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…758bbacked No | 28c | 112$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.64 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea6…32d9backed Yes | 69c | 106$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.14 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…9f70backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 66 | 6.1%4 W · 62 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ee…421bbacked No | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…10eabacked Yes | 75c | 98.85$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fb…3e92backed No | 36c | 98.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.04 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…93f7backed No | 36c | 95$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc802…3570backed No | 43c | 92.38$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.38 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 65c | 91.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.21 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…8c45backed Yes | 65c | 90$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.59 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -3.3wins | -0.24per pick | 67cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9be1…cb56backed No | 14c | 89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.54 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +65%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…2a4ebacked No | 38c | 84$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.08 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab72…b70dbacked Yes | 64c | 78.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed No | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 198 | 36.4%72 W · 126 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea1…6487backed Yes | 75c | 78$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.58 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -6.1wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d54…8d9abacked Yes | 66c | 77.27$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.41per pick | 66cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…8085backed Yes | 69c | 73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.37 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 62c | 71.39$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.36 | 71 | 25.4%18 W · 53 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd302…39f0backed Yes | 60c | 70.09$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x253f…e642backed Yes | 69c | 68$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.92 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf298…12f8backed No | 30c | 67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd091…e046backed Yes | 69c | 66.07$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.59 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -64%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb88…6b99backed No | 31c | 64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -5.4wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 24c | 64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.68 | 140 | 15%21 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…44adbacked No | 38c | 62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.44 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will It Was Just an Accident be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
- Will A House of Dynamite be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Anemone be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Avatar: Fire and Ash be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Blue Moon be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Bugonia be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Die My Love be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will F1 be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Frankenstein be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Hamnet be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Highest 2 Lowest be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Jay Kelly be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Marty Supreme be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will No Other Choice be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Nouvelle Vague be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will One Battle After Another be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Rental Family be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Sentimental Value be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Sinners be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Sorry Baby be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Sound of Falling be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will The Life of Chuck be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will The Lost Bus be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will The Secret Agent be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will The Smashing Machine be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will The Testament of Ann Lee be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Thunderbolts be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Train Dreams be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Warfare be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Weapons be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Wicked: For Good be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.