Movies · resolved market
Will The Secret Agent be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa09b2390a2718a48b9f137d6155bc9a166ef16b120b810a9f39d445583827cdc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,163
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,312
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,163 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 14c | 7,408$1,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,061.99 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 20c | 5,501$1,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,117.63 | 71 | 25.4%18 W · 53 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed No | 18c | 4,345$782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$782.1 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked No | 27c | 2,703$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.77 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 78c | 2,555$1,993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.1 | 129 | 23.3%30 W · 99 L | -7.3wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed Yes | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x225b…422abacked Yes | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb86e…8cfdbacked No | 22c | 660$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.2 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 79c | 541.09$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.52 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 19c | 423.32$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.15 | 55 | 5.5%3 W · 52 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 16c | 414$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.24 | 194 | 40.2%78 W · 116 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes | 78c | 360$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.6 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9270…7c9ebacked Yes | 79c | 322$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.62 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +106.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed No | 20c | 155$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Yes | 79c | 145$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fb…3e92backed No | 26c | 135.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 23c | 103.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 131 | 30.5%40 W · 91 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a98…7c69backed Yes | 80c | 100.21$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88bb…8d2cbacked No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc8…bd8abacked No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7c…8356backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2100…2e40backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3903…e027backed No | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 21c | 83.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8490…ecfabacked No | 37c | 59.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes | 75c | 29.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +25%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Yes | 79c | 17.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4113…6bfabacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will The Secret Agent be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
- Will A House of Dynamite be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Anemone be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Avatar: Fire and Ash be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Blue Moon be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Bugonia be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Die My Love be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will F1 be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Frankenstein be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Hamnet be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Highest 2 Lowest be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will It Was Just an Accident be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Jay Kelly be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Marty Supreme be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will No Other Choice be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Nouvelle Vague be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will One Battle After Another be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Rental Family be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Sentimental Value be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Sinners be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Sorry Baby be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Sound of Falling be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will The Life of Chuck be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will The Lost Bus be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will The Smashing Machine be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will The Testament of Ann Lee be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Thunderbolts be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Train Dreams be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Warfare be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Weapons be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Wicked: For Good be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.