TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Train Dreams be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$66,034
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$68,341

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,034 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 185 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9648…6825backed No21c4,231$889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$888.51128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-68.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5b4…1e3ebacked Yes79c3,009$2,377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$632.111457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed No24c2,118$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.597125.4%18 W · 53 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-50.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb86e…8cfdbacked Yes77c2,111$1,627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.51457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x252b…b46cbacked Yes10c1,901$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,715.733141.9%13 W · 18 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick30cpaid+77.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc981…a75dbacked No26c1,685$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.995726.3%15 W · 42 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes69c1,477$1,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.5748236.3%175 W · 307 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb410…7736backed No34c1,426$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.6510244.1%45 W · 57 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd188…d310backed Yes59c1,418$838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$579.981643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+143.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x58a1…4ceebacked No27c1,301$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1f4…e758backed Yes76c1,300$988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3121100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0306…dcf6backed Yes79c1,270$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.891050%5 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-31%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x19cd…f7ffbacked No25c1,156$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2892540%10 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-22.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9334…0138backed No39c1,033$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f5b…b598backed Yes77c1,000$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2308536.5%31 W · 54 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked Yes76c913$697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.8824634.6%85 W · 161 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed No19c801.76$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.65555.5%3 W · 52 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick12cpaid-86.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x270e…2930backed Yes64c794.86$509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.864829.2%14 W · 34 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes71c767.48$544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.2129926.4%79 W · 220 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a45…9d4abacked No41c758.54$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.626541.5%27 W · 38 L+8.8wins+0.13per pick28cpaid+68.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7f0d…1683backed No26c695$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.71844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdb8…f285backed Yes75c689$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.253836.8%14 W · 24 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-44%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c22…50e1backed No32c624$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.68933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-50.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd7ad…4953backed No32c620$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.44930.6%15 W · 34 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick36cpaid+21.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed Yes14c600.71$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516.1417821.3%38 W · 140 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea90…0f8fbacked Yes75c578$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.51353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d94…7523backed No17c567$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.393141.9%13 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xadc9…5856backed No25c556$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1392152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a94…7154backed No15c528$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.22343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x367b…48dabacked No32c501$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.323145.2%14 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f47…500cbacked No32c484$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.8840%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed Yes60c469.95$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.6813740.1%55 W · 82 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd622…defcbacked Yes75c469$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.254348.8%21 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aca…cad6backed Yes74c467$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.422646.2%12 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e6e…99eabacked Yes80c447.33$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.47250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7f2…1a94backed Yes68c442$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.441457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf955…bb33backed No25c441$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.252326.1%6 W · 17 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-48.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x188a…de60backed No18c400$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$723411.8%4 W · 30 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick10cpaid+11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bef…1e38backed Yes75c400$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1001850%9 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked Yes66c374.09$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.0513650%68 W · 68 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x451a…a0c9backed No31c373$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.633641.7%15 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-24.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa400…ec34backed Yes69c373$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.632147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c7d…d6ebbacked No22c372.09$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.233123.9%79 W · 252 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick20cpaid-15%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3214…f00ebacked Yes75c361$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.252965.5%19 W · 10 L+4.3wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+26.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc336…9f48backed No25c360$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903148.4%15 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe513…b842backed Yes75c360$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$903246.9%15 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-23.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1db2…ebc2backed No71c357$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.471346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+42.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaef9…0acbbacked Yes76c346$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.041866.7%12 W · 6 L+4.7wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+123%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xef29…f7eabacked No24c346$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.04757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6558…e485backed Yes75c344$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$863432.4%11 W · 23 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-44.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe433…1700backed No71c338$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.982040%8 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4657…00d6backed Yes55c328$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.61435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-42%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x98cb…a127backed No15c308$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-31%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a5a…779cbacked Yes62c307$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.455345.3%24 W · 29 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6368…d45ebacked Yes72c303.19$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.892556%14 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+30.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b29…716fbacked Yes70c300$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$903100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+36%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5374…952abacked Yes68c293$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.76944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-33.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12c2…aa71backed No49c293$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.962835.7%10 W · 18 L-3.2wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-38.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6bcc…f8b2backed No28c284.39$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8015739.5%62 W · 95 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36b0…f5bebacked No25c271$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.752161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.8wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No21c270.41$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.9320841.8%87 W · 121 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d75…78b9backed Yes56c270$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.42979.3%23 W · 6 L+5.9wins+0.20per pick59cpaid+36.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x6278…3a93backed Yes74c265$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.9771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+16.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe87e…4f70backed No26c265$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.93652.8%19 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-8.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked No68c263.77$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.668030%24 W · 56 L-9.2wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-39.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdaee…bd71backed No14c250$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351266.7%8 W · 4 L+3.2wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+73%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xda64…9bc5backed Yes29c243$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.531850%9 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+16.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa355…a3a2backed Yes29c238$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.982250%11 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd96e…1ea6backed No53c232$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.2950%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa05d…3e96backed Yes75c216$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543151.6%16 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+16.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc40a…1f50backed Yes29c212$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.521729.4%5 W · 12 L-3.5wins-0.21per pick50cpaid-46.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x647e…88c8backed Yes29c205$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.551573.3%11 W · 4 L+3.7wins+0.25per pick48cpaid+46.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed Yes70c201$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.752759.3%16 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+10.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes75c200$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5028528.8%82 W · 203 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc94a…ac22backed No32c187$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.842142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1897…c285backed No15c187$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.051353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb023…6d90backed No71c176$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.962437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-6.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes46c172.5$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.1514015%21 W · 119 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-25.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No30c171.74$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.131,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbec…8dccbacked Yes75c169$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.251770.6%12 W · 5 L+3.1wins+0.18per pick53cpaid+42.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xafea…230bbacked Yes74c168$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.681346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+56.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23e9…109fbacked Yes61c163.76$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.762642.3%11 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+31.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x466e…ed99backed No71c162$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.523138.7%12 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-31.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xff92…d07cbacked Yes73c157$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.071346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-28.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked Yes77c153.75$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.1713130.5%40 W · 91 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-41.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9fa5…8f79backed No33c150.39$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507450%37 W · 37 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+9.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No22c147.6$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8436538.1%139 W · 226 L-19.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3e35…384fbacked No72c144$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.682853.6%15 W · 13 L+3.4wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+23.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x993c…eae0backed Yes28c144$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.681741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6cc8…05b5backed Yes79c141.85$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.793473.5%25 W · 9 L+4.4wins+0.13per pick61cpaid+22.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9f91…d531backed Yes50c139$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.51258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc895…9bfabacked Yes51c138$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.621650%8 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-22%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd06a…1dd1backed Yes74c132.42$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.431127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-52.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes79c128$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.0213040%52 W · 78 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-13.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb890…a592backed No53c128$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.692142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-16.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xee4e…aa5abacked Yes30c127$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.91942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4406…5eafbacked Yes47c125$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.251866.7%12 W · 6 L+3.2wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+31.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbe7c…8356backed No26c120$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.63013.3%4 W · 26 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-48.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f68…21ecbacked No72c115$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.82832.1%9 W · 19 L-4.6wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-50.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf58d…a617backed No70c112$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.42055%11 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.