Movies · resolved market
Will Train Dreams be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e04764ea6c4135e942d918afe75b4a18923894a15dfbcf517366264c319a9c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,034
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,341
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,034 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 185 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9648…6825backed No | 21c | 4,231$889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888.51 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b4…1e3ebacked Yes | 79c | 3,009$2,377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.11 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 24c | 2,118$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.59 | 71 | 25.4%18 W · 53 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb86e…8cfdbacked Yes | 77c | 2,111$1,627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x252b…b46cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,901$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,715.73 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked No | 26c | 1,685$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.99 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 69c | 1,477$1,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.57 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 34c | 1,426$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.65 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd188…d310backed Yes | 59c | 1,418$838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.98 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +143.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58a1…4ceebacked No | 27c | 1,301$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f4…e758backed Yes | 76c | 1,300$988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0306…dcf6backed Yes | 79c | 1,270$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.89 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -31%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19cd…f7ffbacked No | 25c | 1,156$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9334…0138backed No | 39c | 1,033$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5b…b598backed Yes | 77c | 1,000$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 76c | 913$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.88 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 19c | 801.76$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.65 | 55 | 5.5%3 W · 52 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x270e…2930backed Yes | 64c | 794.86$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.86 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 71c | 767.48$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.21 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a45…9d4abacked No | 41c | 758.54$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.62 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | +8.8wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0d…1683backed No | 26c | 695$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.7 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…f285backed Yes | 75c | 689$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.25 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -44%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c22…50e1backed No | 32c | 624$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.68 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ad…4953backed No | 32c | 620$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.4 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed Yes | 14c | 600.71$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.14 | 178 | 21.3%38 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea90…0f8fbacked Yes | 75c | 578$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…7523backed No | 17c | 567$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.39 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadc9…5856backed No | 25c | 556$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a94…7154backed No | 15c | 528$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x367b…48dabacked No | 32c | 501$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.32 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…500cbacked No | 32c | 484$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 60c | 469.95$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.68 | 137 | 40.1%55 W · 82 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked Yes | 75c | 469$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.25 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aca…cad6backed Yes | 74c | 467$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.42 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6e…99eabacked Yes | 80c | 447.33$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f2…1a94backed Yes | 68c | 442$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.44 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf955…bb33backed No | 25c | 441$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.25 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…de60backed No | 18c | 400$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…1e38backed Yes | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked Yes | 66c | 374.09$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.05 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…a0c9backed No | 31c | 373$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.63 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa400…ec34backed Yes | 69c | 373$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.63 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked No | 22c | 372.09$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.2 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3214…f00ebacked Yes | 75c | 361$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.25 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +4.3wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc336…9f48backed No | 25c | 360$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe513…b842backed Yes | 75c | 360$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db2…ebc2backed No | 71c | 357$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.47 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaef9…0acbbacked Yes | 76c | 346$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.04 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +4.7wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +123%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xef29…f7eabacked No | 24c | 346$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.04 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6558…e485backed Yes | 75c | 344$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe433…1700backed No | 71c | 338$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.98 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4657…00d6backed Yes | 55c | 328$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.6 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -42%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…a127backed No | 15c | 308$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5a…779cbacked Yes | 62c | 307$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.45 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6368…d45ebacked Yes | 72c | 303.19$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.89 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…716fbacked Yes | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5374…952abacked Yes | 68c | 293$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.76 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12c2…aa71backed No | 49c | 293$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.96 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed No | 28c | 284.39$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 157 | 39.5%62 W · 95 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b0…f5bebacked No | 25c | 271$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.75 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 21c | 270.41$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.93 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d75…78b9backed Yes | 56c | 270$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.4 | 29 | 79.3%23 W · 6 L | +5.9wins | +0.20per pick | 59cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6278…3a93backed Yes | 74c | 265$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.9 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed No | 26c | 265$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.9 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 68c | 263.77$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.66 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | -9.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…bd71backed No | 14c | 250$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +73%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda64…9bc5backed Yes | 29c | 243$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.53 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa355…a3a2backed Yes | 29c | 238$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.98 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd96e…1ea6backed No | 53c | 232$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.29 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa05d…3e96backed Yes | 75c | 216$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc40a…1f50backed Yes | 29c | 212$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.52 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x647e…88c8backed Yes | 29c | 205$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.55 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 48cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Yes | 70c | 201$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.75 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…ac22backed No | 32c | 187$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.84 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1897…c285backed No | 15c | 187$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb023…6d90backed No | 71c | 176$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.96 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 46c | 172.5$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.15 | 140 | 15%21 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 30c | 171.74$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.13 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbec…8dccbacked Yes | 75c | 169$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafea…230bbacked Yes | 74c | 168$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23e9…109fbacked Yes | 61c | 163.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.76 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x466e…ed99backed No | 71c | 162$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.52 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff92…d07cbacked Yes | 73c | 157$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.07 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 77c | 153.75$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.17 | 131 | 30.5%40 W · 91 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa5…8f79backed No | 33c | 150.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 22c | 147.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e35…384fbacked No | 72c | 144$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.68 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…eae0backed Yes | 28c | 144$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.68 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc8…05b5backed Yes | 79c | 141.85$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.79 | 34 | 73.5%25 W · 9 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f91…d531backed Yes | 50c | 139$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc895…9bfabacked Yes | 51c | 138$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.62 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06a…1dd1backed Yes | 74c | 132.42$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.43 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 79c | 128$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.02 | 130 | 40%52 W · 78 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb890…a592backed No | 53c | 128$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.69 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee4e…aa5abacked Yes | 30c | 127$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.9 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4406…5eafbacked Yes | 47c | 125$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.25 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7c…8356backed No | 26c | 120$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f68…21ecbacked No | 72c | 115$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.8 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf58d…a617backed No | 70c | 112$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.4 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Train Dreams be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
- Will A House of Dynamite be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Anemone be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Avatar: Fire and Ash be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Blue Moon be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Bugonia be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Die My Love be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will F1 be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Frankenstein be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Hamnet be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Highest 2 Lowest be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will It Was Just an Accident be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Jay Kelly be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Marty Supreme be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will No Other Choice be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Nouvelle Vague be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will One Battle After Another be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Rental Family be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Sentimental Value be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Sinners be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Sorry Baby be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Sound of Falling be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will The Life of Chuck be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will The Lost Bus be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will The Secret Agent be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will The Smashing Machine be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will The Testament of Ann Lee be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Thunderbolts be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Warfare be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Weapons be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Wicked: For Good be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.