TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7775…3bc8

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
92
Categories scored
20
Categories below 50
15

Best Category: Commodities, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Commodities at 54 out of 100; worst Middle East at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-54.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.81
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.3
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.1
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$26.79
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+400%+$84
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$63
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$42
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by January 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$74.28
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$29.4
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$65.1
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$71.4
All 11 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick20cpaid+11.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$94.5
Will PLC win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.9
Will CD win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.1
Will Sanseitō win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$20.5
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$94.14
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$32.86
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by less than 1%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST+900%+$93.6
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$56.58
Will Chile Grande y Unido hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST-100%-$10.5
All 9 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 29, 2026, EDT812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick23cpaid-55.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 24, 2026, EDT812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick27cpaid-40.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.04
Grok 5 released by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.72
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$95.82
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$69.3
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10.71
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+376.2%+$82.95
Will Google have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$10.5
Will Jimmy Kimmel rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$48.51
All 8 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT80%0 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2026, EDT714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-60.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2026, EST633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-51.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST60%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Lol — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Mar 9, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick18cpaid+90.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick21cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+455.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+455.6%+$354.24
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Nov 14, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+113%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST+113%+$55.17
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Jan 25, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Diplo run the 5k in under 23 minutes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$13.65
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 9, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ole Miss win the 2026 College Football National Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$11.99
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Oliver Glasner be appointed as manager of Manchester United?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.91
All 1 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Nov 19, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$35.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.76
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.