World Politics · resolved market
Will Sanseitō win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c5fd8888091950899b1fff79a649b79ebbee156cc834ab77236e26732fa0911
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,077
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,153
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,077 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 5c | 24,168$1,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,114.56 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed Yes | 3c | 2,025$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.01 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 2c | 1,444$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 166 | 4.2%7 W · 159 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf82a…d221backed Yes | 3c | 1,394$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.38 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 2c | 684.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 149 | 4.7%7 W · 142 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 580.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 254 | 3.5%9 W · 245 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedcd…2081backed Yes | 10c | 575.22$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.86 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 3c | 523.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2265…7392backed Yes | 4c | 507.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 3c | 499.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 80 | 3.8%3 W · 77 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 456.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 234 | 4.3%10 W · 224 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 4c | 445.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 115 | 2.6%3 W · 112 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 4c | 426.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 98 | 22.4%22 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 10c | 377.01$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.62 | 220 | 29.5%65 W · 155 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed No | 76c | 339.42$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.85 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 4c | 308.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 80 | 6.3%5 W · 75 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 19c | 292.13$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 205.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 10c | 199.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 211 | 7.1%15 W · 196 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7775…3bc8backed Yes | 11c | 186.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05f4…9073backed Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.41per pick | 19cpaid | +221.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 10c | 144.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4113…6bfabacked Yes | 57c | 35.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sanseitō win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?this page
- Will Reiwa Shinsengumi win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?No won
- Will Team Mirai win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?No won
- Will the Centrist Reform Alliance win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?No won
- Will the Conservative Party of Japan win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?No won
- Will the Democratic Party for the People win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?No won
- Will the Japan Innovation Party win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?Yes won
- Will the Japanese Communist Party win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?No won
- Will the Liberal Democratic Party win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?No won
- Will the Social Democratic Party win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.