World Politics · resolved market
Will the Japan Innovation Party win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8807b81bf0be73b9b7ed7f4d0bcda2508101a3aefa4b344d03bbaa4586c17a6e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,810
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,774
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,810 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed No | 16c | 1,812$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.93 | 101 | 27.7%28 W · 73 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3587…23adbacked Yes | 63c | 1,696$1,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.84 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8661…3f45backed Yes | 55c | 1,141$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16fa…6d0dbacked Yes | 46c | 1,088$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.26 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d01…1645backed Yes | 47c | 1,070$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.62 | 120 | 29.2%35 W · 85 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f8…8520backed Yes | 70c | 808.59$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 41c | 700$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf82a…d221backed No | 3c | 591.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf5…95adbacked Yes | 44c | 559.02$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.71 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 166 | 16.9%28 W · 138 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 47c | 484$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.48 | 123 | 32.5%40 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 27c | 396.82$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.07 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…6c15backed No | 17c | 365.9$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.89 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08a6…aa97backed Yes | 64c | 360.94$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a8…285ebacked Yes | 45c | 360.63$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 29c | 347.34$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.08 | 98 | 22.4%22 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5b…5fb8backed Yes | 44c | 338.64$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 53c | 326.17$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.87 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed Yes | 44c | 280.58$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.79 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d8…825ebacked Yes | 75c | 276.13$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefbe…19b2backed Yes | 44c | 227.94$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.94 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 47c | 221.39$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.57 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a17…c14dbacked Yes | 77c | 218.14$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed No | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 45c | 188.1$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.92 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 47c | 179.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.29 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 53c | 177.92$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.36 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa75…a864backed No | 28c | 174$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -47%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6660…c786backed No | 19c | 159.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x266d…083fbacked Yes | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc12d…babbbacked Yes | 80c | 130$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…b103backed Yes | 75c | 120$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 205 | 38%78 W · 127 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 57c | 116.36$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.04 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 52c | 111$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.72 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x151c…87b2backed No | 18c | 110$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0748…103bbacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa38b…6481backed Yes | 46c | 95.74$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…3d55backed Yes | 43c | 76.07$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 56c | 71.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfab5…690dbacked No | 17c | 70.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90b…0643backed Yes | 72c | 64.2$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 19c | 55.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 29c | 44.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6368…eea5backed No | 35c | 42.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9835…6d8ebacked Yes | 43c | 39.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 44c | 34.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cba…ae95backed Yes | 75c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 46c | 31.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a6…8bc8backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea6…b729backed Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3089…a0d9backed Yes | 41c | 28.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 63c | 24.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf347…9e9dbacked No | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f9…2673backed Yes | 68c | 22.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 56c | 20.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aca…3293backed No | 57c | 19.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Japan Innovation Party win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?this page
- Will Reiwa Shinsengumi win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?No won
- Will Sanseitō win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?No won
- Will Team Mirai win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?No won
- Will the Centrist Reform Alliance win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?No won
- Will the Conservative Party of Japan win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?No won
- Will the Democratic Party for the People win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?No won
- Will the Japanese Communist Party win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?No won
- Will the Liberal Democratic Party win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?No won
- Will the Social Democratic Party win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.