World Politics · resolved market
Will the Democratic Party for the People win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe16a1f04bb797e82b38284c98d77c804ee5cf0da780850a6726e0f6605644e1f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,417
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,878
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,417 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2265…7392backed Yes | 33c | 2,129$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d01…1645backed Yes | 42c | 958$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.32 | 120 | 29.2%35 W · 85 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed Yes | 20c | 763.28$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.92 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 34c | 717.7$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.18 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81a4…0697backed Yes | 19c | 668.28$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.19 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked Yes | 23c | 662.75$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbae7…80fcbacked Yes | 36c | 617.78$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.59 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 7c | 593.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 101 | 27.7%28 W · 73 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf5…95adbacked Yes | 43c | 527.8$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.6 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 55c | 480.26$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.11 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 56c | 441.93$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.16 | 98 | 22.4%22 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1d…8a73backed Yes | 37c | 400.09$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.07 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 62c | 356.76$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.25 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07fa…74efbacked Yes | 35c | 294.12$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 34cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f8…8520backed Yes | 49c | 290.2$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.81 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 58c | 251.61$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.48 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 58c | 250.02$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.44 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 66c | 224.3$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.86 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 205.54$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.26 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a8…285ebacked Yes | 48c | 199.73$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 70c | 195.54$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.46 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 16c | 190$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 56c | 159$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.81 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08a6…aa97backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x151c…87b2backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ec…4155backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0748…103bbacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6135…d290backed Yes | 23c | 91.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e4…c4d6backed Yes | 43c | 88.65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…3d55backed Yes | 45c | 73.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 56c | 63.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 63c | 56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…4863backed No | 60c | 55.8$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde8d…1e96backed Yes | 40c | 52.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5403…edd5backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed Yes | 38c | 43.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e5…633fbacked Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 68c | 39.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1e…0a48backed Yes | 44c | 36.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 54c | 29.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3089…a0d9backed Yes | 47c | 21.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7e…32ffbacked No | 60c | 18.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed No | 70c | 17.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Democratic Party for the People win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?this page
- Will Reiwa Shinsengumi win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?No won
- Will Sanseitō win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?No won
- Will Team Mirai win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?No won
- Will the Centrist Reform Alliance win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?No won
- Will the Conservative Party of Japan win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?No won
- Will the Japan Innovation Party win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?Yes won
- Will the Japanese Communist Party win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?No won
- Will the Liberal Democratic Party win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?No won
- Will the Social Democratic Party win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.