Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by January 16, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfea033f199d44cfab8b9588e7b92fedaf2c546cb77a14f608403f5cb9f448dd1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,191
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,269
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,191 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes | 8c | 5,800$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 2,589$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -77%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 65c | 2,057$1,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.16 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 76c | 1,871$1,414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.1 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe688…7118backed Yes | 31c | 1,649$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb675…3d65backed Yes | 7c | 1,524$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 5c | 1,437$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.36 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 5c | 1,230$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.02 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,084$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 9c | 1,033$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.92 | 123 | 22.8%28 W · 95 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 872.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 72 | 2.8%2 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 27c | 800$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 31c | 766.05$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.18 | 66 | 16.7%11 W · 55 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x036f…31a9backed No | 66c | 580$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d2…6698backed Yes | 34c | 535$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7775…3bc8backed Yes | 19c | 386.69$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.28 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4366…c73ebacked Yes | 26c | 369.65$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.41 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 23c | 348.8$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.66 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Yes | 42c | 345$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd497…29f1backed No | 60c | 330$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…f511backed Yes | 25c | 275.53$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…ff23backed Yes | 15c | 250$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 11c | 211.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 76c | 210.15$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.93 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -5.6wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d35…f929backed Yes | 30c | 201$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 200.1$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.03 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.25 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfd…f0b5backed Yes | 39c | 198.68$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 9c | 185.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 66 | 4.5%3 W · 63 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x370b…5f2cbacked Yes | 31c | 159.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…3c30backed Yes | 8c | 155.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e3…545dbacked Yes | 33c | 121.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 30c | 104.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 107 | 13.1%14 W · 93 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd036…a17cbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0457…a43cbacked No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2978…f839backed Yes | 36c | 94.72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 76c | 94.68$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 17c | 89.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb1…276cbacked No | 69c | 84.1$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf964…6e97backed Yes | 30c | 83.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x714e…beeebacked Yes | 31c | 80.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 42c | 76.15$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 138 | 29.7%41 W · 97 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8986…5631backed Yes | 19c | 70.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed No | 62c | 65.79$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbb…8e46backed Yes | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed Yes | 26c | 58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 37c | 52.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 62c | 45.97$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88f1…8e46backed Yes | 34c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c22…70a0backed Yes | 33c | 39.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…8ea6backed No | 75c | 33.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8df5…e945backed Yes | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf626…f9f0backed No | 66c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 63c | 23.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67f8…265dbacked No | 73c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5768…d11dbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce99…dfa8backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by January 16, 2026?this page
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2025?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 14, 2026?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by January 9, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.