Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by January 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9ab7fbd7284908c277844aaeb70cdd48aad889908b366cbf0c8ecd2b1f03c5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $865,457
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $859,087
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $865,457 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 451 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 19c | 43,999$8,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,537.79 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 60c | 33,120$19,982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,982.33 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 14c | 23,073$3,283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,283.42 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed No | 58c | 21,876$12,697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,697.42 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57c8…69ebbacked No | 0c | 21,275$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.45 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked Yes | 2c | 19,000$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,715 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 23cpaid | +456.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57ae…e386backed No | 5c | 16,665$883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$883.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0bf…2032backed No | 54c | 16,014$8,714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,714.42 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 32cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x053f…2c01backed Yes | 16c | 15,993$2,575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,418.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 22c | 15,351$3,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,019.81 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9488…d531backed Yes | 16c | 14,937$2,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,576.7 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 68c | 13,053$8,874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,179.14 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c1…825fbacked No | 8c | 11,757$957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$957.38 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…9024backed Yes | 5c | 11,259$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,679.71 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 10cpaid | +220.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…473bbacked No | 8c | 11,120$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 6c | 11,024$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.16 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48e1…10cfbacked No | 7c | 10,538$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 47c | 8,563$4,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,057.66 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad9…7bf6backed No | 9c | 7,504$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.82 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 22c | 7,123$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,560.41 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 6,717$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.35 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44b3…28a1backed No | 19c | 6,710$1,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,248.28 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 55c | 6,188$3,429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,759.02 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45db…8f65backed Yes | 33c | 6,090$2,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,056.55 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c9…afe7backed Yes | 50c | 5,974$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,973.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5973…5e13backed Yes | 5c | 5,903$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,584.63 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +168.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes | 77c | 5,332$4,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,244.53 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e0…7d46backed No | 22c | 5,043$1,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,086.07 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc86d…c53fbacked No | 7c | 4,770$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2db1…df10backed No | 6c | 4,443$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.64 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 62c | 4,336$2,679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,657.3 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…f9babacked No | 14c | 4,318$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b24…2605backed Yes | 47c | 4,260$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,259.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +113%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked No | 39c | 4,171$1,621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,620.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +115.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 31c | 3,715$1,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,580.81 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 2c | 3,362$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,301.48 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +211.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8b…350bbacked No | 7c | 3,083$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf635…82b4backed No | 7c | 3,006$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 2c | 3,000$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,949 | 66 | 16.7%11 W · 55 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e30…1e50backed Yes | 57c | 2,864$1,637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,226.68 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed Yes | 73c | 2,804$2,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.16 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…999ebacked No | 11c | 2,686$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.87 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6e…0617backed No | 40c | 2,600$1,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,047 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked No | 2c | 2,519$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.9 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b0…000dbacked Yes | 14c | 2,500$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,147.74 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb86a…81b8backed No | 51c | 2,417$1,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,221.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x645e…d120backed Yes | 61c | 2,318$1,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$905.99 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 57c | 2,216$1,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$942.82 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -71%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 56c | 2,170$1,209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.73 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed No | 19c | 2,156$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.48 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7db8…dee4backed No | 19c | 2,152$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 68c | 2,138$1,451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,451.33 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cc…72afbacked No | 28c | 1,999$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.69 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe179…1edebacked No | 12c | 1,949$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed No | 16c | 1,898$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.53 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -76%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcc…0694backed No | 18c | 1,862$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b3…fa72backed No | 6c | 1,810$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04e8…a0bfbacked Yes | 53c | 1,800$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe102…71dfbacked Yes | 64c | 1,772$1,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b40…8ab4backed Yes | 18c | 1,723$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,414.93 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +89.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07ec…0ec4backed No | 26c | 1,676$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.89 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed No | 10c | 1,598$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.36 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6768…692dbacked No | 16c | 1,589$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.48 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 16c | 1,566$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.19 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 22c | 1,500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,169.99 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x541c…c462backed No | 16c | 1,500$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.98 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…2202backed No | 75c | 1,471$1,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,106.18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 27c | 1,425$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.82 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 58c | 1,388$809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.18 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -46%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 50c | 1,380$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.53 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb938…6f03backed Yes | 38c | 1,330$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$824.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7485…d9f3backed No | 8c | 1,308$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f1…6cfbbacked No | 32c | 1,281$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 39c | 1,274$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.02 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea7…79acbacked No | 8c | 1,265$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.46 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5049…ae27backed No | 24c | 1,233$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.52 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed No | 65c | 1,233$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.05 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…511bbacked No | 6c | 1,212$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.21 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae15…5b25backed No | 46c | 1,197$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 20c | 1,190$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.97 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -96.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed No | 22c | 1,162$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.34 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked No | 41c | 1,153$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.27 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1edd…be0fbacked No | 5c | 1,150$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde7d…499ebacked Yes | 31c | 1,143$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792.82 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d60…03d8backed Yes | 69c | 1,140$782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…693fbacked Yes | 35c | 1,140$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.89 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 11c | 1,138$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.33 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 11c | 1,123$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +214.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…cb10backed Yes | 62c | 1,082$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.91 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c0…b79fbacked No | 6c | 1,050$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…668ebacked No | 6c | 1,050$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe598…a0a8backed No | 15c | 1,011$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 51c | 1,000$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.72 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes | 79c | 1,000$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf603…82f1backed No | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c64…348fbacked No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 35c | 999.99$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.29 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x575f…9287backed No | 4c | 999.92$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x687d…e28bbacked Yes | 66c | 992.53$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by January 31, 2026?this page
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2025?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 14, 2026?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by January 9, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.