Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69b7dca69efadef48c5fb13417a3fb5d6cef85eb4f4af07fbb7e6065cab8b1a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,858
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,442
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,858 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77a0…8f62backed Yes | 7c | 1,448$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.87 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc269…dc49backed Yes | 11c | 801.53$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9292…2cd1backed Yes | 15c | 700$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…f74dbacked Yes | 12c | 307.88$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.88 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -84%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x680a…1a1abacked Yes | 15c | 265.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 5c | 217.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 16c | 213.1$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dd…903fbacked Yes | 47c | 212.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 77c | 205$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x731b…90dfbacked No | 68c | 172$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.3 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 27c | 92.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 23c | 87.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.55 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +5.4wins | +0.49per pick | 23cpaid | +236.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 27c | 80.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 138 | 29.7%41 W · 97 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe74a…8d5ebacked No | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4e…57febacked No | 80c | 28.89$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9d…ea34backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2025?this page
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 14, 2026?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by January 9, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.