Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 6, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99674ed5ce26fff39aba7287b3f710189cfe1145f227d8f2b3a6ff2c542c2b59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $151,307
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $157,011
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $151,307 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 145 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 68c | 17,170$11,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,510.11 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95ba…6a41backed Yes | 45c | 10,800$4,860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,940 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +98.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48f8…7febbacked No | 55c | 10,800$5,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,940 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17ce…beecbacked No | 28c | 10,000$2,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,799.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9488…d531backed Yes | 77c | 9,600$7,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,190.29 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b3…fa72backed No | 19c | 8,934$1,726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,726.21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 6,505$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.08 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 37c | 5,900$2,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,183 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad9…7bf6backed No | 21c | 4,881$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,009.76 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed No | 28c | 4,790$1,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,364.84 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57c8…69ebbacked No | 1c | 4,097$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.97 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed No | 21c | 4,003$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855.23 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 20c | 4,000$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$814.42 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed Yes | 60c | 3,367$2,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350.04 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7485…d9f3backed No | 4c | 2,500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 80c | 2,500$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b40…8ab4backed Yes | 55c | 2,414$1,338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,075.22 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +89.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…581ebacked No | 1c | 2,216$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e62…ef0fbacked No | 25c | 2,161$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cbd…3d51backed No | 24c | 2,097$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed No | 19c | 2,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2db1…df10backed No | 20c | 1,711$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.57 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 21c | 1,623$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.86 | 107 | 13.1%14 W · 93 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked No | 37c | 1,500$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 2c | 1,448$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 72c | 1,362$986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.62 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes | 79c | 1,212$957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.91 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +115.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…6dffbacked Yes | 50c | 1,202$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.4 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd265…82afbacked No | 2c | 1,200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9634…bd44backed No | 5c | 1,144$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.33 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…454dbacked Yes | 61c | 1,112$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.5 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 44cpaid | +103.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5049…ae27backed No | 24c | 1,098$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.8 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…511bbacked No | 3c | 1,030$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde7d…499ebacked Yes | 72c | 1,030$737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.43 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e46…7075backed No | 2c | 1,010$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33dc…bb81backed Yes | 43c | 925.41$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.74 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 52c | 919.35$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.01 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8d…84bcbacked No | 22c | 900$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +1,065.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 2c | 714.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 16c | 677.57$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.18 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 2c | 637.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 64 | 3.1%2 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked No | 56c | 535.61$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe598…a0a8backed No | 24c | 500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 78c | 491.45$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.11 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 76c | 459.48$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.48 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9995…d0d3backed No | 23c | 407.57$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.09 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2af3…e58bbacked No | 21c | 405.88$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf75c…0387backed No | 40c | 360.05$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb97c…9982backed No | 22c | 356.84$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa142…375abacked No | 57c | 352.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 70c | 346.67$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.42 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes | 65c | 345.56$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed No | 30c | 300$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.56 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0554…579fbacked No | 35c | 285.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 41c | 281.11$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.26 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 16cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…1bdbbacked No | 42c | 264.33$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6978…08d8backed Yes | 76c | 250$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b19…83c4backed No | 19c | 233.68$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be5…c1b3backed Yes | 46c | 199.99$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34e8…a6e4backed No | 43c | 194.4$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65a4…8b0bbacked No | 29c | 182.53$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac51…3f9ebacked Yes | 53c | 179.42$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x648c…09c6backed Yes | 54c | 176$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.96 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +4.6wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb675…3d65backed Yes | 58c | 171.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.19 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 25c | 163.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.13 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…462ebacked Yes | 60c | 163.37$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 30c | 158.21$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.75 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -46%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…cb10backed Yes | 70c | 156$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ee…1f06backed No | 20c | 150.72$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…d4a9backed No | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cc…72afbacked No | 34c | 147.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 60c | 133.33$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 48c | 132.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf50e…e8edbacked No | 23c | 132.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66dc…6562backed No | 56c | 130.36$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa894…53dabacked No | 63c | 127.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd5…b7a8backed Yes | 47c | 126.39$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +338.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc639…c5a2backed Yes | 80c | 125.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc934…5551backed No | 18c | 123.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44e4…f624backed No | 9c | 122.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 70c | 105.38$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.38 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x412f…019dbacked Yes | 67c | 105.21$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed No | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed No | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb169…b67abacked Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe7…03e0backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…398ebacked No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a74…49e7backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 20cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea4…2bd2backed No | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x628e…1d80backed No | 27c | 87.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8986…b357backed Yes | 68c | 84.31$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb51…359dbacked Yes | 72c | 80.5$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…cbd5backed Yes | 80c | 80$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b04…6274backed No | 40c | 75.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45cd…33d4backed Yes | 75c | 74.98$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 46c | 73.78$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.84 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 18c | 73.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1e…4a65backed No | 27c | 72.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 65c | 71.92$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.41 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ac…cb52backed No | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 6, 2026?this page
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2025?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 14, 2026?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by January 9, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.