Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 14, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f71236e591b7d64df6d6fbd01ce2f276c2fe8b24bf442e659892d68de15e3da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,444
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,622
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,444 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 9,296$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.76 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 9c | 9,059$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792.6 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff55…9550backed No | 0c | 7,514$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 15c | 7,498$1,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,155.54 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 76c | 2,477$1,886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.84 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad9…7bf6backed No | 7c | 1,726$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.06 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed No | 15c | 1,657$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.97 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 15c | 889.41$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.73 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 10c | 598$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.84 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 16cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 11c | 439.54$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.51 | 107 | 13.1%14 W · 93 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x648c…09c6backed Yes | 65c | 400$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +4.6wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8d…84bcbacked No | 23c | 400$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +1,065.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 11c | 282.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x355f…0df8backed Yes | 79c | 265.39$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.39 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 77c | 256$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.67 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 67c | 222$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.26 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf75c…0387backed No | 28c | 144.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24c0…4a9cbacked No | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea4…2bd2backed No | 15c | 134$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 13c | 127.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…33e2backed No | 9c | 120$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 21c | 117.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked No | 27c | 84.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f50…56ebbacked No | 32c | 72.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Yes | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 73c | 28.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 72c | 24.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 138 | 29.7%41 W · 97 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…4093backed Yes | 68c | 20.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 14, 2026?this page
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2025?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by January 9, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.