TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe5ac…cb52

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
64
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Boxing, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Boxing at 52 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-47.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+47.8%+$9.57
Will Luigi Mangione be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$250
Will Charlie Kirk be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+76%+$52.16
Will Luigi Mangione rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will Kendrick Lamar rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+170.3%+$34.05
Will Bad Bunny rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+37%+$7.4
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Charlie Kirk rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$291Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$291.17
Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$190
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 14 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST1118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick28cpaid+72.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will Kristi Noem be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will Pam Bondi be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$20
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$248Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$248.47
Will the government shutdown last 6 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$11.84
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$1,475Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$1,474.62
Epstein blackmail evidence released by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$100
House passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will the government shutdown end November 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+203%+$50.76
Will the government shutdown end November 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+1,491.9%+$1,115.87
All 11 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 23, 2026, EST1050%5 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-32%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will PVV be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will any of the stolen Louvre jewels be returned by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+28.2%+$5.64
Will Chan Santokhi be the next president of Suriname after the election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT+27.3%+$13.63
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$13.33
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$5.97
Will the next Pope be from Europe?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$28.21
All 10 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick23cpaid-79%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$514Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$514
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+68.3%+$34.16
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$29.98
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$1,770Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,770
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Will 'Zootopia 2' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will 'Sinners' gross between $44m and $49m on opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 8 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-50.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $12 million?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+132.7%+$26.55
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Makhachev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+35.1%+$17.57
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Dec 3, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$18.62
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jan 26, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.