World Politics · resolved market
Will any of the stolen Louvre jewels be returned by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4085a5e2d95b0057fd9575369b24e653bce463a1c1e1d861188ce11b7690c9fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $117,068
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $121,557
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $117,068 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 359 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 22c | 5,533$1,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,198.77 | 182 | 16.5%30 W · 152 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x400f…b2d7backed Yes | 46c | 3,430$1,585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,584.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…14f3backed Yes | 35c | 3,187$1,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,110 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 57c | 2,822$1,621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,621.39 | 114 | 28.9%33 W · 81 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 48c | 2,450$1,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,270.56 | 120 | 56.7%68 W · 52 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 5c | 2,295$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.28 | 167 | 6.6%11 W · 156 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed Yes | 30c | 2,243$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.48 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +640.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…7b80backed No | 72c | 1,838$1,324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.1 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +8.1wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8979…f003backed No | 75c | 1,753$1,319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc14…1dd2backed No | 68c | 1,579$1,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.94 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 35c | 1,445$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.44 | 114 | 35.1%40 W · 74 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd7…9c85backed No | 75c | 1,312$983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.71 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 40c | 1,126$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.86 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d07…c976backed No | 52c | 1,120$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 1,112$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.22 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc681…2dc8backed Yes | 57c | 1,109$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 55c | 1,020$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.61 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8926…5aacbacked No | 74c | 1,014$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 166 | 16.9%28 W · 138 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Yes | 35c | 999.97$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f5…e4dabacked No | 66c | 986.81$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 57c | 986.21$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.66 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 61c | 973.82$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.43 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x933f…d300backed No | 56c | 947.76$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.52 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x087a…48c4backed Yes | 41c | 843.63$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a0…c7f2backed Yes | 41c | 830$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcc…12a6backed No | 78c | 810.6$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 70cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19b4…9518backed No | 55c | 788.69$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +61%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8eac…bca8backed Yes | 38c | 780.38$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 749.71$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.34 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74a9…0dc7backed Yes | 69c | 725.91$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a4…996dbacked Yes | 45c | 703$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.5 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -5.4wins | -0.34per pick | 46cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x632e…b293backed Yes | 10c | 681.58$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes | 51c | 665.45$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.48 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8f…162cbacked Yes | 44c | 653.66$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.51 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…7504backed No | 61c | 647.37$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4e…31cbbacked No | 57c | 623.1$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 66c | 621.94$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.69 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 46c | 606.9$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.39 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 45c | 605.98$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.83 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf93…bdc8backed No | 69c | 604.99$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.8 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed No | 67c | 551.85$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.23 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…b2e3backed No | 54c | 539.99$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.39 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 35c | 539.4$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.1 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…eb64backed No | 47c | 537.51$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.51 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…0220backed No | 52c | 530.18$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.87 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67b8…148cbacked No | 58c | 517.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e45…3662backed No | 78c | 515.79$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.38 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed No | 54c | 500$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.66 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…b6e8backed Yes | 20c | 499.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f2c0backed Yes | 53c | 499.99$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb5…ed22backed No | 55c | 499.99$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 42c | 499.97$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.98 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 42c | 499.74$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.76 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce25…4e7dbacked Yes | 16c | 487$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.92 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f21…3d6ebacked Yes | 21c | 479.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.48 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed Yes | 47c | 463.33$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.48 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a54…f7f9backed No | 65c | 458.52$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.52 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c97…1b68backed Yes | 25c | 454.67$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.67 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -4.0wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 22c | 435.94$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.69 | 94 | 18.1%17 W · 77 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed No | 63c | 417.86$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.86 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -6.0wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb8…5e8fbacked Yes | 53c | 415.09$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 50c | 404.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.06 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd199…37a6backed Yes | 28c | 399.97$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 45c | 399.94$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.2 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | -7.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b6…5fbdbacked No | 56c | 395.71$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 73c | 395.55$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.77 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…1602backed No | 77c | 389.61$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…79f4backed No | 52c | 380.99$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 46c | 380.22$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Yes | 26c | 379.26$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.79 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f19…3aedbacked No | 53c | 378.75$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.75 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3f…5425backed Yes | 32c | 371.72$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 7c | 358.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 53c | 355.07$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.64 | 261 | 39.8%104 W · 157 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9f…35e5backed No | 71c | 352.55$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.55 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 7c | 340$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 63 | 11.1%7 W · 56 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +117.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca64…389abacked Yes | 36c | 328.91$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc450…f2f7backed No | 63c | 325.29$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.29 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f8b…9226backed Yes | 62c | 324.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf79…605fbacked No | 59c | 310$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +111%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd1…a18fbacked Yes | 43c | 306.46$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.19 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8a…15c1backed No | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 34c | 299.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd28b…60f0backed Yes | 38c | 299.99$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked No | 54c | 296.4$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.4 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7321…1812backed Yes | 25c | 296$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c94…1f7dbacked No | 59c | 295.51$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 25c | 287.66$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.77 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 24c | 278.64$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.87 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b9…d5eabacked No | 57c | 272.83$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 55c | 271.02$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56c0…26b5backed No | 54c | 268.13$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 23c | 266.68$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.28 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda38…fb7fbacked No | 56c | 266.62$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa318…0c71backed No | 60c | 261.48$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…919bbacked Yes | 9c | 252.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 44c | 250$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52e4…38cabacked Yes | 42c | 239.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will any of the stolen Louvre jewels be returned by December 31?this page
- Will any of the stolen Louvre jewels be returned by October 31No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.