World Politics · resolved market
Will any of the stolen Louvre jewels be returned by October 31
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2b82841abdb071a6dc74f6168af95511180761bf648d7457b32d82465ca57c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $100,646
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $99,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,646 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 178 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6775…c73bbacked Yes | 15c | 9,336$1,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,397.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +368.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf23c…ad58backed Yes | 28c | 4,265$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 3,712$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.18 | 167 | 6.6%11 W · 156 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 14c | 2,622$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.43 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc4…7bb2backed Yes | 20c | 2,014$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda47…f40abacked No | 79c | 2,000$1,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…eb64backed No | 68c | 1,475$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.48 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 3c | 1,423$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1804…bd47backed No | 78c | 1,319$1,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.53 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 69cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 79c | 1,277$1,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.07 | 120 | 56.7%68 W · 52 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 24c | 1,263$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…776ebacked No | 77c | 1,133$877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 67cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb74b…f6b7backed No | 63c | 1,106$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes | 21c | 1,095$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.5 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce7…7fd9backed Yes | 36c | 1,005$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 13c | 974.95$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.98 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41eb…da1dbacked Yes | 28c | 944.37$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f21…3d6ebacked Yes | 33c | 910.08$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed No | 76c | 899.99$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.3 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8f…162cbacked Yes | 9c | 871.58$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.77 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82a…be8cbacked No | 80c | 799.47$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b44…264ebacked Yes | 12c | 738.86$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.58 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +335.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 61c | 713.11$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.4 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 650.85$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.54 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 15c | 605.43$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | -7.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 10c | 546.05$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.99 | 114 | 35.1%40 W · 74 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d92…e287backed Yes | 31c | 532.18$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45cd…26a5backed Yes | 19c | 523.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 73c | 519.99$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.88 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02a…8edbbacked Yes | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd74d…ff5ebacked Yes | 31c | 452.83$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3701…ce16backed No | 74c | 444.67$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.7 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Yes | 7c | 438.34$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 27c | 425.2$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.06 | 261 | 39.8%104 W · 157 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…14f3backed Yes | 12c | 418.77$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.46 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda15…3dfabacked Yes | 10c | 410.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1410…a67dbacked No | 75c | 395$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 12c | 388.23$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.42 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +168.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 15c | 358.04$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.87 | 94 | 18.1%17 W · 77 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 12c | 357.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.58 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c2b…aa95backed No | 72c | 339.33$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68df…d099backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3cc…65c7backed Yes | 33c | 331.61$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd1…a18fbacked Yes | 18c | 320.25$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.08 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 10c | 319.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa99c…3070backed Yes | 7c | 297.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…b9e3backed Yes | 30c | 295.49$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Yes | 12c | 287.51$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9403…7361backed Yes | 7c | 286.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4c…8138backed No | 76c | 284.06$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.18 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ef…996ebacked Yes | 10c | 280.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32db…fcdcbacked Yes | 7c | 280.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 12c | 274.12$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 7c | 262.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4180…84dbbacked Yes | 31c | 261.54$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3b…b968backed No | 79c | 252.21$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 79c | 250$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes | 20c | 249.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…b63dbacked Yes | 8c | 228.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -46%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d52…f88abacked Yes | 9c | 226.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b7…f9e3backed No | 71c | 225.06$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.89 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1886…d87fbacked Yes | 23c | 210.06$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.48 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd08…28ddbacked Yes | 19c | 208.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f5…e4dabacked No | 72c | 207.76$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x065d…f0f1backed No | 74c | 200.78$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.78 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…c066backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6127…27debacked No | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bc…026cbacked Yes | 28c | 199.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…b2e3backed No | 65c | 199.99$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.4 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 14c | 195.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 172 | 27.9%48 W · 124 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8049…b09dbacked Yes | 27c | 186.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa988…3ef0backed Yes | 11c | 184.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 39c | 182.3$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.96 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5d…eb37backed Yes | 23c | 175.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…190cbacked Yes | 27c | 174.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebae…881fbacked No | 75c | 170.99$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6556…ee64backed No | 74c | 166.95$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.95 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 24cpaid | +2,860.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5832…f585backed Yes | 33c | 165.11$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180f…19d2backed Yes | 13c | 163.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb92…7ba6backed Yes | 24c | 158.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe959…6a17backed No | 77c | 158.65$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51bf…4706backed Yes | 13c | 156.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03c8…0e01backed Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a4…996dbacked Yes | 35c | 150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -5.4wins | -0.34per pick | 46cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cc…0540backed Yes | 13c | 148.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 71c | 146.14$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.51 | 168 | 34.5%58 W · 110 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…c2f4backed Yes | 21c | 146.03$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c97…1b68backed Yes | 8c | 139.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -4.0wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6a19…d9cebacked No | 72c | 139.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d57…b2abbacked Yes | 36c | 139.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 15c | 138.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59b3…1d98backed Yes | 25c | 138.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb5…7588backed Yes | 29c | 136.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +247.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08aa…b124backed No | 76c | 132.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.19 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8689…b1d6backed Yes | 22c | 130.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaecd…de9abacked Yes | 32c | 128.53$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 71c | 126.98$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.29 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe89a…cab3backed Yes | 21c | 120.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9d…e979backed Yes | 22c | 111.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will any of the stolen Louvre jewels be returned by October 31this page
- Will any of the stolen Louvre jewels be returned by December 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.