TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will any of the stolen Louvre jewels be returned by October 31

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$100,646
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$99,589

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,646 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 178 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6775…c73bbacked Yes15c9,336$1,397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,397.37250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick13cpaid+368.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf23c…ad58backed Yes28c4,265$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes6c3,712$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.181676.6%11 W · 156 L-0.2wins0.00per pick7cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes14c2,622$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.431,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fc4…7bb2backed Yes20c2,014$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda47…f40abacked No79c2,000$1,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick74cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f40…eb64backed No68c1,475$1,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471.486250%31 W · 31 L+7.9wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+16.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x950a…b380backed Yes3c1,423$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1804…bd47backed No78c1,319$1,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.531758.8%10 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick69cpaid-19.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No79c1,277$1,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.0712056.7%68 W · 52 L+11.9wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+26.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes24c1,263$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003417.6%6 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick18cpaid+42.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad8e…776ebacked No77c1,133$877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.03425%1 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.42per pick67cpaid-67.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb74b…f6b7backed No63c1,106$702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-47.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes21c1,095$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.58231.7%26 W · 56 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ce7…7fd9backed Yes36c1,005$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes13c974.95$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.983826.3%10 W · 28 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick28cpaid+1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41eb…da1dbacked Yes28c944.37$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.02450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-31.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f21…3d6ebacked Yes33c910.08$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30050%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe071…f836backed No76c899.99$684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.3666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick64cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e8f…162cbacked Yes9c871.58$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.771450%7 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa82a…be8cbacked No80c799.47$638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-37.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b44…264ebacked Yes12c738.86$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.58955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick40cpaid+335.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed No61c713.11$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.43148.4%15 W · 16 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+2.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes6c650.85$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.541,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes15c605.43$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$897317.8%13 W · 60 L-7.7wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-56.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes10c546.05$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.9911435.1%40 W · 74 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d92…e287backed Yes31c532.18$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.19540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-42.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45cd…26a5backed Yes19c523.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No73c519.99$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.8811454.4%62 W · 52 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf02a…8edbbacked Yes21c476.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd74d…ff5ebacked Yes31c452.83$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3701…ce16backed No74c444.67$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.71546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-29%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa966…208bbacked Yes7c438.34$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes27c425.2$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.0626139.8%104 W · 157 L+16.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+32.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb042…14f3backed Yes12c418.77$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.462138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-40.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xda15…3dfabacked Yes10c410.6$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1410…a67dbacked No75c395$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes12c388.23$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.425149%25 W · 26 L+6.9wins+0.13per pick36cpaid+168.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes15c358.04$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.879418.1%17 W · 77 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick13cpaid+40.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes12c357.98$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5845723.2%106 W · 351 L-15.8wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c2b…aa95backed No72c339.33$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.33250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-31%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68df…d099backed Yes6c333.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3cc…65c7backed Yes33c331.61$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-52.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0cd1…a18fbacked Yes18c320.25$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.08633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-20.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes10c319.24$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.562536%9 W · 16 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+27.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa99c…3070backed Yes7c297.73$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+32%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x17ed…b9e3backed Yes30c295.49$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.74366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+20.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4cb9…3783backed Yes12c287.51$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.840%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9403…7361backed Yes7c286.67$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a4c…8138backed No76c284.06$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.181020%2 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc4ef…996ebacked Yes10c280.11$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32db…fcdcbacked Yes7c280.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes12c274.12$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7388448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes7c262.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.641,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4180…84dbbacked Yes31c261.54$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a3b…b968backed No79c252.21$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No79c250$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5211039.1%43 W · 67 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes20c249.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick36cpaid+22.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x72a1…b63dbacked Yes8c228.83$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.431625%4 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-46%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d52…f88abacked Yes9c226.57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4b7…f9e3backed No71c225.06$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.893100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+49.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1886…d87fbacked Yes23c210.06$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.48616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-78.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd08…28ddbacked Yes19c208.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7f5…e4dabacked No72c207.76$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.762100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x065d…f0f1backed No74c200.78$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.78650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd687…c066backed Yes16c200$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick26cpaid-80.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6127…27debacked No68c200$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bc…026cbacked Yes28c199.99$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.4933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-49.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x581d…b2e3backed No65c199.99$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.41650%8 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes14c195.27$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3317227.9%48 W · 124 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8049…b09dbacked Yes27c186.52$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick27cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa988…3ef0backed Yes11c184.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes39c182.3$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.966622.7%15 W · 51 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-58.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9a5d…eb37backed Yes23c175.95$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d87…190cbacked Yes27c174.99$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebae…881fbacked No75c170.99$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6556…ee64backed No74c166.95$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.95742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick24cpaid+2,860.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5832…f585backed Yes33c165.11$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-60.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x180f…19d2backed Yes13c163.17$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xeb92…7ba6backed Yes24c158.98$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe959…6a17backed No77c158.65$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51bf…4706backed Yes13c156.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+18.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce3f…67c9backed Yes8c150$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125032%16 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03c8…0e01backed Yes14c150$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213721.6%8 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9a4…996dbacked Yes35c150$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.51612.5%2 W · 14 L-5.4wins-0.34per pick46cpaid-82.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xf5cc…0540backed Yes13c148.15$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No71c146.14$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.5116834.5%58 W · 110 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf02f…c2f4backed Yes21c146.03$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c97…1b68backed Yes8c139.73$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.51110%0 W · 11 L-4.0wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x6a19…d9cebacked No72c139.32$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d57…b2abbacked Yes36c139.07$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes15c138.9$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.837123.9%17 W · 54 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick16cpaid+86.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x59b3…1d98backed Yes25c138.25$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4eb5…7588backed Yes29c136.7$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+247.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x08aa…b124backed No76c132.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.19560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.23per pick37cpaid+12.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8689…b1d6backed Yes22c130.53$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid+23.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaecd…de9abacked Yes32c128.53$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa314…5ba7backed No71c126.98$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.299248.9%45 W · 47 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe89a…cab3backed Yes21c120.75$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d9d…e979backed Yes22c111.49$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+71.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.