Us Politics · resolved market
Will Kristi Noem be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x811ef98759f89d150a405423de39b9f718cc0bee61cca8d1b151de5ce73fe888
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $299,942
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $241,284
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $299,942 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 443 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x27e6…c8dcbacked Yes | 24c | 13,650$3,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,234.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0873…09e8backed Yes | 0c | 13,332$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0349…66fcbacked Yes | 22c | 12,231$2,740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,739.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fa…c5cdbacked Yes | 21c | 11,750$2,503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,502.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x916a…ace1backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked No | 65c | 5,098$3,315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,782.29 | 110 | 31.8%35 W · 75 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x327c…86efbacked Yes | 25c | 4,862$1,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,238.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 25c | 4,383$1,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,089.76 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48d6…dc85backed No | 70c | 4,000$2,808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,192 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb988…a50bbacked Yes | 29c | 3,999$1,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,146.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1767…bd5bbacked No | 76c | 3,800$2,899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8026…2f99backed Yes | 27c | 3,762$1,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,030.05 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x358e…835abacked No | 76c | 3,600$2,743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$856.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2629…4aaabacked No | 78c | 3,485$2,704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26c1…00dcbacked No | 78c | 3,400$2,638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb84b…4f75backed No | 77c | 3,400$2,601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 77cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda49…20babacked No | 79c | 3,300$2,597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 42c | 3,184$1,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,338.52 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 31c | 3,104$969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$968.52 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5018…6108backed No | 65c | 3,064$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,063.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73c0…26afbacked No | 79c | 2,950$2,322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b9d…b546backed No | 79c | 2,900$2,282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73c9…8b7dbacked No | 76c | 2,850$2,172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked No | 73c | 2,790$2,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744.47 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | +12.8wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa002…e840backed Yes | 1c | 2,750$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -71%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a53…dcaebacked No | 78c | 2,737$2,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.09 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed0…f77ebacked No | 78c | 2,609$2,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd753…3783backed No | 79c | 2,600$2,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8a…daf0backed Yes | 29c | 2,400$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d3…4782backed Yes | 30c | 2,200$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 63c | 2,003$1,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.7 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 41c | 2,000$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810.09 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 26c | 1,924$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.49 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 30c | 1,900$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561 | 166 | 43.4%72 W · 94 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa439…85efbacked Yes | 30c | 1,800$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca7…a76abacked Yes | 27c | 1,774$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +289.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 74c | 1,734$1,281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.81 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8045…5b8fbacked No | 77c | 1,712$1,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.19 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde37…b2cdbacked Yes | 13c | 1,698$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e41…8265backed Yes | 29c | 1,600$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 65c | 1,549$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.46 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | -13.0wins | -0.28per pick | 55cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 22c | 1,417$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.79 | 94 | 3.2%3 W · 91 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb438…f5f1backed Yes | 39c | 1,295$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…b9bebacked No | 57c | 1,282$737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.26 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…fbdabacked Yes | 39c | 1,272$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b44…264ebacked Yes | 23c | 1,221$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.67 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +7.5wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 23c | 1,210$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.69 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 71c | 1,173$831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.02 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed Yes | 39c | 1,151$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.01 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb905…1640backed Yes | 17c | 1,092$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 13c | 1,039$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.33 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 33c | 1,024$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.02 | 101 | 35.6%36 W · 65 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed No | 76c | 1,022$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.38 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecb…514cbacked No | 59c | 1,000$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.59 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a3…c2f9backed Yes | 41c | 999.98$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309f…b99cbacked Yes | 20c | 995.85$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed No | 73c | 989$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.2 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +9.9wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x023e…4f21backed Yes | 33c | 983.57$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3945…2fa3backed No | 72c | 972.94$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x539d…0213backed Yes | 11c | 968$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.96 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…d949backed Yes | 16c | 958.48$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa75f…433abacked No | 70c | 922.2$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 65c | 914.42$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.39 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x108d…f80fbacked Yes | 22c | 838.66$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf6…8efabacked Yes | 37c | 800$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 16c | 788.56$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.23 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e7…8c77backed Yes | 29c | 772.19$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff49…2f07backed Yes | 20c | 732.54$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 19c | 704.71$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.29 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1056…5b18backed Yes | 16c | 686$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 30c | 685.67$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.64 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -4.3wins | -0.21per pick | 31cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd9…1dc7backed Yes | 29c | 683.23$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 73c | 652.27$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.64 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x466a…c444backed No | 61c | 627.75$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.94 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8151…3421backed Yes | 16c | 618$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b98…5cfabacked Yes | 13c | 612.87$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.18 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 61c | 599.98$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.39 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 26c | 597.91$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.37 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd87d…816abacked Yes | 39c | 586.76$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcd…e98bbacked Yes | 16c | 584$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad87…6a86backed Yes | 30c | 579.13$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 15c | 562.34$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.59 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 6cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…3f1bbacked Yes | 13c | 554.14$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2abd…74ebbacked Yes | 16c | 529.78$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…8218backed Yes | 43c | 524.14$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.32 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ab…d0a0backed Yes | 16c | 524$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 62c | 507.82$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.13 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes | 26c | 500$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.48 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 58c | 500$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.5 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5974…1ac7backed Yes | 24c | 490.85$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 28c | 489.46$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.11 | 115 | 29.6%34 W · 81 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 6c | 467.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.15 | 111 | 20.7%23 W · 88 L | +10.9wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +212.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 77c | 462.29$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.14 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6506…aa79backed Yes | 22c | 457.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 69c | 433.48$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.37 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 76c | 421.86$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.33 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4c…c9c9backed Yes | 24c | 415$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71fc…4ff0backed Yes | 24c | 408$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…3da2backed Yes | 25c | 406.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed No | 76c | 400$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.4 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kristi Noem be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?this page
- Will Brooke Rollins be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No won
- Will Chris Wright be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No won
- Will Doug Burgum be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No won
- Will Doug Collins be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No won
- Will Howard Lutnick be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No won
- Will J.D. Vance be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No won
- Will Jamieson Greer be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No won
- Will John Ratcliffe be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No won
- Will Kelly Loeffler be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No won
- Will Lee Zeldin be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No won
- Will Linda McMahon be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No won
- Will Lori Chavez-DeRemer be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No won
- Will Marco Rubio be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No won
- Will Mike Waltz be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No won
- Will Pam Bondi be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No won
- Will Pete Hegseth be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No won
- Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No won
- Will Russell T. Vought be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No won
- Will Scott Bessent be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No won
- Will Scott Turner be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No won
- Will Sean Duffy be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No won
- Will Stephen Miran be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?Yes won
- Will Susie Wiles be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No won
- Will Tulsi Gabbard be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No won
- Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.