TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Jamieson Greer be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$96,863
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$65,111

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,863 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd882…2a3cbacked Yes1c5,390$43 inLost-$43.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xede9…4f24backed Yes1c5,390$43 inLost-$43.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes0c4,708$20 inLost-$19.78736.8%5 W · 68 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick3cpaid+36.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked Yes1c4,412$27 inLost-$26.7311031.8%35 W · 75 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…7e65backed Yes1c2,832$17 inLost-$16.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5305…e91bbacked Yes1c2,801$20 inLost-$19.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f7a…65ecbacked Yes1c2,677$27 inLost-$26.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x288b…b5cdbacked Yes1c2,605$16 inLost-$15.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8de…9474backed Yes1c2,537$15 inLost-$15.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8556…fad9backed Yes1c2,394$20 inLost-$20306.7%2 W · 28 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-57.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8646…ed78backed Yes1c1,852$12 inLost-$11.9770%0 W · 7 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Yes1c1,491$13 inLost-$13.114814.6%7 W · 41 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick11cpaid-53.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc030…22e4backed Yes3c671.84$20 inLost-$2090%0 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c490.91$10 inLost-$10.191,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.