Us Politics · resolved market
Will Lori Chavez-DeRemer be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2db26e7381782f51db317cce497d859e9165a02713117222d9d8e4bda10dadf7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $131,650
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $123,753
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $131,650 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc39b…e8fbbacked Yes | 1c | 3,996$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 9c | 3,043$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.29 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes | 4c | 2,568$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.46 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | +12.8wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa002…e840backed Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -71%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0661…d210backed Yes | 7c | 2,295$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 76c | 1,982$1,506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.85 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d7…23b6backed Yes | 4c | 1,392$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd47b…5a9ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,370$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf53c…bf8fbacked Yes | 21c | 1,348$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 14c | 1,242$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.08 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…4e12backed Yes | 13c | 1,229$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8715…37f0backed Yes | 13c | 1,217$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x669a…9f3fbacked Yes | 13c | 1,216$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0068…12d2backed Yes | 6c | 1,150$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9142…22c0backed Yes | 13c | 1,121$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb3c…0f07backed Yes | 10c | 1,109$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70e4…c76abacked Yes | 9c | 1,080$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb102…b9febacked Yes | 9c | 1,061$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63bb…bff0backed Yes | 13c | 1,056$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…eb1dbacked Yes | 19c | 1,040$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb4c…7469backed Yes | 12c | 1,012$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd98f…5d9abacked Yes | 14c | 982.99$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…93c6backed Yes | 13c | 890$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x064b…0996backed Yes | 6c | 854.71$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…c501backed Yes | 12c | 838$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2693…1781backed Yes | 12c | 829$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 11c | 783.43$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.96 | 94 | 3.2%3 W · 91 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47c1…825fbacked Yes | 2c | 778.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe869…c67abacked Yes | 12c | 770$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 636.44$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.74 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb781…a6c0backed Yes | 41c | 554.71$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e7…9de7backed Yes | 10c | 460$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…e6c6backed Yes | 9c | 420$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a8…f4ebbacked Yes | 6c | 391$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6643…bdddbacked Yes | 10c | 390$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 29cpaid | +404%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8026…2f99backed Yes | 10c | 383.1$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d3…ff72backed Yes | 3c | 369.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4252…4a6ebacked Yes | 7c | 361.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 10c | 349.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.13 | 336 | 18.5%62 W · 274 L | -46.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf1…c04bbacked Yes | 30c | 329.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc241…1487backed Yes | 8c | 328.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 12c | 297.87$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.94 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 7c | 289.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 6cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92e7…3ba9backed Yes | 12c | 268.61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc030…22e4backed Yes | 8c | 266.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes | 10c | 241.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…d61cbacked Yes | 12c | 223.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffdd…c06fbacked Yes | 5c | 204.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71cc…9144backed Yes | 12c | 203.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 79c | 188.25$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.35 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea1a…5e64backed Yes | 24c | 185.34$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd80…b4e8backed Yes | 12c | 171.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 167.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…d9cabacked Yes | 6c | 157.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 11c | 155$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6565…4255backed Yes | 11c | 135.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 11c | 130.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…2093backed Yes | 9c | 126.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2b…c35dbacked Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e61…19bdbacked Yes | 20c | 118$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 28cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…a487backed Yes | 14c | 116$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd91…6262backed Yes | 11c | 105.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…0220backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5602…c12bbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeea0…5adfbacked Yes | 12c | 91.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb43f…8368backed Yes | 37c | 85.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96d3…784dbacked Yes | 29c | 70.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 25c | 59.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 152 | 43.4%66 W · 86 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5090…249cbacked Yes | 36c | 55.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fdf…cc33backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7131…fb57backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lori Chavez-DeRemer be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?this page
- Will Brooke Rollins be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No won
- Will Chris Wright be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No won
- Will Doug Burgum be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No won
- Will Doug Collins be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No won
- Will Howard Lutnick be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No won
- Will J.D. Vance be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No won
- Will Jamieson Greer be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No won
- Will John Ratcliffe be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No won
- Will Kelly Loeffler be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No won
- Will Kristi Noem be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No won
- Will Lee Zeldin be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No won
- Will Linda McMahon be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No won
- Will Marco Rubio be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No won
- Will Mike Waltz be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No won
- Will Pam Bondi be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No won
- Will Pete Hegseth be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No won
- Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No won
- Will Russell T. Vought be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No won
- Will Scott Bessent be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No won
- Will Scott Turner be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No won
- Will Sean Duffy be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No won
- Will Stephen Miran be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?Yes won
- Will Susie Wiles be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No won
- Will Tulsi Gabbard be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No won
- Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.