Us Politics · resolved market

Will Chris Wright be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbfd4bb8d6a1e16404dd95d2e5c4af005f11f07d37da91f1e9e442e4dd9878e6d

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 3, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $49,351
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $21,589

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,351 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes	0c	3,599$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.6	73	6.8%5 W · 68 L	+3.1wins	+0.04per pick	3cpaid	+36.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes	1c	2,406$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.23	109	50.5%55 W · 54 L	+12.8wins	+0.12per pick	39cpaid	+30.7%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	2,105$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.69	1,136	6.3%72 W · 1,064 L	-25.9wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-55.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Yes	2c	1,208$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.87	48	14.6%7 W · 41 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	-53.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8556…fad9backed Yes	1c	999.97$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.99	30	6.7%2 W · 28 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-57.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x32ec…8692backed Yes	3c	951.49$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.06per pick	28cpaid	-52%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc030…22e4backed Yes	2c	859.84$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.6wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes	3c	673.35$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	146	6.2%9 W · 137 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes	7c	530.16$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.06	333	13.2%44 W · 289 L	+9.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	2c	505.42$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.12	78	7.7%6 W · 72 L	+2.5wins	+0.03per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	5c	395.35$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.99	94	3.2%3 W · 91 L	-8.3wins	-0.09per pick	12cpaid	-69.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes	3c	395.32$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.32	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	+1.1wins	+0.07per pick	6cpaid	+41.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd8d3…ff72backed Yes	3c	382.19$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.47	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-2.8wins	-0.15per pick	25cpaid	-83.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x137e…5292backed Yes	6c	317.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.10per pick	23cpaid	+56.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ea4…2bd2backed Yes	3c	301.21$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.12per pick	29cpaid	-78.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8045…5b8fbacked Yes	6c	242.3$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.31	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+1.1wins	+0.13per pick	21cpaid	+82.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Chris Wright be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event