Us Politics · resolved market
Will Scott Turner be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e2aef240bbd28efbbf25463542d3d9bf4ec47dfac199b5e015c433235ed4b79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $137,970
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $117,390
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $137,970 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2917…7c48backed Yes | 1c | 5,205$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff0b…f952backed Yes | 1c | 5,205$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c8…2d06backed Yes | 1c | 4,908$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc29…bb98backed Yes | 0c | 4,908$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc123…0608backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x233b…6ddfbacked Yes | 1c | 3,997$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc030…22e4backed Yes | 1c | 3,895$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55f9…6350backed Yes | 1c | 3,708$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,169$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 110 | 31.8%35 W · 75 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8646…ed78backed Yes | 1c | 3,076$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10c2…daedbacked Yes | 1c | 2,782$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e75…5878backed Yes | 1c | 2,738$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,686$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8556…fad9backed Yes | 1c | 2,395$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeae3…4743backed Yes | 1c | 1,290$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d3…ff72backed Yes | 3c | 382.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Scott Turner be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?this page
- Will Brooke Rollins be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No won
- Will Chris Wright be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No won
- Will Doug Burgum be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No won
- Will Doug Collins be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No won
- Will Howard Lutnick be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No won
- Will J.D. Vance be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No won
- Will Jamieson Greer be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No won
- Will John Ratcliffe be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No won
- Will Kelly Loeffler be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No won
- Will Kristi Noem be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No won
- Will Lee Zeldin be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No won
- Will Linda McMahon be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No won
- Will Lori Chavez-DeRemer be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No won
- Will Marco Rubio be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No won
- Will Mike Waltz be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No won
- Will Pam Bondi be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No won
- Will Pete Hegseth be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No won
- Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No won
- Will Russell T. Vought be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No won
- Will Scott Bessent be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No won
- Will Sean Duffy be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No won
- Will Stephen Miran be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?Yes won
- Will Susie Wiles be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No won
- Will Tulsi Gabbard be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No won
- Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.