TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Pete Hegseth be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$156,483
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$147,369

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $156,483 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes2c10,497$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.9711010%11 W · 99 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-32%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3a5…5f3cbacked Yes3c10,156$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.683043.3%13 W · 17 L+4.9wins+0.16per pick27cpaid+91.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x46fb…2b75backed Yes4c3,500$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1542133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-46%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes1c2,700$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.858015%12 W · 68 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-54.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked Yes1c1,838$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.711031.8%35 W · 75 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x26b1…c3ddbacked Yes3c1,582$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b11…28a1backed Yes3c1,477$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Yes4c1,300$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.974814.6%7 W · 41 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick11cpaid-53.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c1,275$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.831,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb747…3f1bbacked Yes4c1,204$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-23.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d20…07ecbacked Yes6c1,155$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.14250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-28.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f20…4948backed Yes6c1,145$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8715…37f0backed Yes6c1,120$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb13…a48abacked Yes6c1,054$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes6c1,022$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.183912.8%5 W · 34 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-27.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4d4…de0cbacked Yes6c1,014$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.83250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-28.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd677…f89fbacked Yes6c978.34$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc637…ab8fbacked Yes6c957.74$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.5120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8556…fad9backed Yes3c896.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.12306.7%2 W · 28 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-57.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6782…8f58backed Yes6c892$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b89…99c9backed Yes5c844.64$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-68.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8026…2f99backed Yes11c837.6$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.942343.5%10 W · 13 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+8.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1ef7…b515backed Yes6c781$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes3c642.35$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.915710.5%6 W · 51 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick5cpaid+75.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa883…31fbbacked Yes7c600$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-48.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ceb…e961backed Yes3c599.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ff3…009cbacked Yes6c598.92$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11a4…6667backed Yes9c598.52$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes12c576.2$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.4933313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5688…9f32backed Yes4c518.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes3c502.06$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.28372.7%1 W · 36 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-68.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x155e…0e7fbacked Yes7c500$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbee9…12b7backed Yes21c487.07$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes4c481.01$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.59943.2%3 W · 91 L-8.3wins-0.09per pick12cpaid-69.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes4c425.95$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.374311.6%5 W · 38 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick6cpaid+61.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4cb2…4954backed Yes5c417.29$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b13…5957backed Yes5c400$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick24cpaid-60.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes12c388.69$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5315227.6%42 W · 110 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+3.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes4c385$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.03765.3%4 W · 72 L-0.2wins0.00per pick5cpaid-25.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x539d…0213backed Yes4c384$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-53.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9ff…f3f3backed Yes20c373.02$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b35…4a36backed Yes5c367.7$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c338.78$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.161343.7%5 W · 129 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-52.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f9a…6242backed Yes5c304.92$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes17c299.96$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.9919638.8%76 W · 120 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes4c295.78$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.991513.3%2 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick6cpaid+41.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff24…c91ebacked Yes18c281.32$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0983…5703backed Yes23c278.1$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes13c248.1$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2556733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x309f…b99cbacked Yes12c243.13$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7630%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38fa…d9cabacked Yes4c228.97$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2970%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a55…b053backed Yes17c210$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bc7…e411backed Yes15c204.87$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.782445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-35.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103638.9%14 W · 22 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick30cpaid+20.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes10c170.79$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7433618.5%62 W · 274 L-46.5wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-60%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x4405…6a37backed Yes60c166.66$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+283.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb40…3612backed Yes15c142.97$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.354814.6%7 W · 41 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x908d…1d99backed Yes9c142.55$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.83540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes8c139.31$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7933627.4%92 W · 244 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-14.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b98…5cfabacked Yes12c136$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.07933.3%3 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-46.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e8f…a6bbbacked Yes17c125$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.25650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+25.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2edf…6957backed Yes17c117.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c8f…2268backed Yes14c107.14$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe958…3a47backed Yes20c101.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed No80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.513455.2%74 W · 60 L+0.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8697…190dbacked Yes17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-74%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5c0…bbe8backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-54.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc25…eb62backed Yes17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea28…3a0bbacked Yes13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x098f…47cdbacked Yes18c97.49$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.122646.2%12 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2968…530ebacked Yes21c95.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b34…87febacked Yes21c95.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe41…f735backed Yes18c83.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32c3…5dc5backed Yes30c78.53$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.211533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-44.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2e3…88a7backed Yes19c70$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc0c…04cbbacked No80c60.2$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.293100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77ff…3b59backed Yes19c60$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.430%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bf2…c41bbacked Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6747…a64fbacked No80c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4580%4 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick70cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.