TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$209,248
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$185,111

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $209,248 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0873…09e8backed Yes0c15,554$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.55130%0 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe598…a0a8backed Yes9c14,584$1,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,288.043663.9%23 W · 13 L+3.9wins+0.11per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x245e…183cbacked Yes10c10,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96080%0 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6348…0fafbacked Yes1c10,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a56…adabbacked Yes13c9,226$1,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,230.082147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes10c5,440$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.573912.8%5 W · 34 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-27.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43b8…2bcdbacked Yes10c2,389$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x47c1…825fbacked Yes10c2,382$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.372516%4 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8026…2f99backed Yes10c2,185$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.042343.5%10 W · 13 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+8.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked Yes8c1,860$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.0611031.8%35 W · 75 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes11c1,646$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.9333313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes2c1,250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2013216.7%22 W · 110 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid+19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff4b…d019backed Yes7c1,200$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.44634.8%16 W · 30 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes11c1,086$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.42943.2%3 W · 91 L-8.3wins-0.09per pick12cpaid-69.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x33e0…7d46backed Yes16c1,030$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.771353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+23.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b7a…4817backed Yes16c1,028$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.931428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.5wins-0.18per pick47cpaid-46.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes4c1,000$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.813714.6%20 W · 117 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4faa…1a5cbacked Yes9c999.99$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9360%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x355e…a038backed Yes10c999.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.48250%41 W · 41 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Yes10c996.31$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.754814.6%7 W · 41 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick11cpaid-53.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad79…7abbbacked Yes11c958.52$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10430%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes8c910.54$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.73787.7%6 W · 72 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c17…6a7ebacked Yes6c770.4$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.26785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.5wins+0.35per pick51cpaid+101.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes15c754.88$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.234436.4%16 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c03…604ebacked Yes10c717.85$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.973043.3%13 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes11c643.11$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.2211529.6%34 W · 81 L-5.8wins-0.05per pick35cpaid+4.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes10c626.24$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.18765.3%4 W · 72 L-0.2wins0.00per pick5cpaid-25.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7651…b077backed Yes10c545.76$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes9c544.26$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.551343.7%5 W · 129 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-52.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes8c536.28$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.015710.5%6 W · 51 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick5cpaid+75.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes10c527.26$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.753920.5%8 W · 31 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+87%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c28…fdd9backed Yes10c510$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d08…3defbacked Yes10c506$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.93650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+18.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6cbe…5323backed Yes10c502.78$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cf8…042fbacked Yes10c499.7$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.163138.7%12 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x553a…177fbacked Yes24c464.99$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-12.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Yes15c450$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.513455.2%74 W · 60 L+0.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes14c446.69$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.9339522.8%90 W · 305 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad87…6a86backed Yes11c424$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.221838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-19.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes12c410.49$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.431,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes8c406.32$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.02372.7%1 W · 36 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-68.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes8c405.56$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.964311.6%5 W · 38 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick6cpaid+61.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes10c394.58$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.51513.3%2 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick6cpaid+41.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e6c…4d67backed Yes11c376.69$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes10c353.39$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.585322.6%12 W · 41 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-28.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x612f…aa53backed Yes6c345.04$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.841546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x198a…3ca3backed Yes9c320.06$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-39.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes12c300$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362941.4%12 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick36cpaid-12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes10c299.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.23330.3%10 W · 23 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd85c…f69cbacked Yes7c276.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-18.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc95…5584backed Yes9c274.73$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes10c269.62$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0344111.3%50 W · 391 L-44.5wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-52.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa98a…e546backed Yes9c259.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.24100%0 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes9c230.24$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7796319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc9cd…e436backed Yes5c207.55$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick3cpaid+248.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2bae…ec80backed Yes10c202.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes16c200$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3215227.6%42 W · 110 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+3.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a26…de59backed Yes11c197.27$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes10c197.08$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4133618.5%62 W · 274 L-46.5wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-60%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x1705…ed3dbacked Yes11c190.15$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc413…3204backed Yes11c186.21$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92e7…3ba9backed Yes12c181.16$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-49.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36a8…10c4backed Yes11c180.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0341…3ff3backed Yes11c180.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41c1…e027backed Yes10c178.32$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x591d…8c39backed Yes15c166.67$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25aa…e3d3backed Yes10c145.63$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1540%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe450…419abacked Yes10c143.1$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes8c140.48$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.01419.8%4 W · 37 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick5cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c4e…eda6backed Yes15c139.96$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes10c128.9$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.291816.7%3 W · 15 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick6cpaid+84.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes17c125$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2510035%35 W · 65 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecf8…603bbacked Yes17c117.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick30cpaid+3.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8bc…1d6cbacked Yes18c111.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38fa…d9cabacked Yes10c110.51$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5670%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c23…8c71backed Yes18c105.56$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfef…bfffbacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x388f…9854backed Yes11c99.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2892…71ddbacked Yes14c96.79$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143030%9 W · 21 L-4.6wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-38.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xebb0…dd1abacked Yes12c94.08$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed No78c76.66$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6737844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.