Us Politics · resolved market

Will Stephen Miran be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4cc2861671375aa645e6be21fa0c3bcf4124e78f7f2f10310ad7c578156a0e6e

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 3, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $107,487
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $112,547

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,487 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe598…a0a8backed Yes	68c	12,546$8,547 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,998.99	36	63.9%23 W · 13 L	+3.9wins	+0.11per pick	53cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3b44…264ebacked Yes	56c	5,720$3,225 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,495.65	35	60%21 W · 14 L	+7.5wins	+0.22per pick	38cpaid	+85.7%equal weight	64+0.13 edge/pick
0x49ba…40febacked No	0c	5,028$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No	35c	3,227$1,126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,126.22	165	35.8%59 W · 106 L	+18.3wins	+0.11per pick	25cpaid	+86.2%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x856f…e1d7backed Yes	4c	1,413$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,359.32	33	33.3%11 W · 22 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	29cpaid	+56.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Yes	44c	1,411$628 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$783.55	24	54.2%13 W · 11 L	+1.9wins	+0.08per pick	46cpaid	+6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x853c…bd03backed Yes	3c	1,267$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,230.38	29	34.5%10 W · 19 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	+88.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes	4c	1,127$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,082.09	73	6.8%5 W · 68 L	+3.1wins	+0.04per pick	3cpaid	+36.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	1,046$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,004.82	1,136	6.3%72 W · 1,064 L	-25.9wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-55.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8196…ab69backed Yes	60c	921.97$550 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$372.45	55	32.7%18 W · 37 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes	56c	609.4$341 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$268.82	412	38.8%160 W · 252 L	+11.6wins	+0.03per pick	36cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes	4c	486.11$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$466.11	133	41.4%55 W · 78 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	5c	472.55$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$446.84	94	3.2%3 W · 91 L	-8.3wins	-0.09per pick	12cpaid	-69.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6643…bdddbacked Yes	7c	450$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$417.15	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+1.1wins	+0.38per pick	29cpaid	+404%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeee9…6e94backed Yes	6c	416.75$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$389.79	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+2.2wins	+0.56per pick	19cpaid	+1,415.6%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes	6c	383.61$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$358.89	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	+1.1wins	+0.07per pick	6cpaid	+41.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x539d…0213backed No	30c	377$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.29	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-53.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	4c	299.99$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$288.29	57	10.5%6 W · 51 L	+2.9wins	+0.05per pick	5cpaid	+75.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked No	29c	299.61$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87	48	14.6%7 W · 41 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	-53.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No	42c	285.12$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.77	336	18.5%62 W · 274 L	-46.5wins	-0.14per pick	32cpaid	-60%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes	8c	262.56$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$241.16	333	13.2%44 W · 289 L	+9.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No	15c	250$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.5	132	16.7%22 W · 110 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	+19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c16…4890backed No	24c	224.99$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.67	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…f17abacked No	32c	200$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.9	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	29cpaid	+21.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	8c	199.99$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$184.59	38	13.2%5 W · 33 L	+3.2wins	+0.08per pick	5cpaid	+47.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xab8a…c806backed Yes	55c	177.18$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79.55	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.7wins	+0.37per pick	63cpaid	+62%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked No	30c	133.33$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	39	30.8%12 W · 27 L	+2.1wins	+0.05per pick	25cpaid	+30.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa95d…6a82backed Yes	48c	129.06$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.28	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	+36.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes	30c	128.71$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$89.71	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	+2.0wins	+0.11per pick	37cpaid	+19.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x50bd…962abacked Yes	52c	128.62$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.17	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.0wins	+0.19per pick	61cpaid	+37.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No	33c	128.15$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.32	122	7.4%9 W · 113 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-63.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5bd…ceaabacked Yes	54c	121.88$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.19	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	+2.5wins	+0.15per pick	38cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb2f4…1c9cbacked No	29c	100$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.39	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73ca…055abacked No	35c	75$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.18	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.31per pick	31cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No	20c	71.3$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.48	441	11.3%50 W · 391 L	-44.5wins	-0.10per pick	21cpaid	-52.5%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x58b3…fe06backed Yes	75c	60.42$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.1	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-0.9wins	-0.06per pick	28cpaid	-71.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe634…cad8backed Yes	56c	44.34$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.34	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.15per pick	60cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb88…9226backed Yes	56c	37.84$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.8	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.44per pick	56cpaid	+79.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50a3…0a78backed Yes	65c	32.65$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.43	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-23%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2f4f…728abacked Yes	65c	30$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.5	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+2.3wins	+0.32per pick	39cpaid	+89.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2ca0…2983backed No	35c	30$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.35per pick	35cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3494…04f4backed Yes	55c	26.36$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.94	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.08per pick	33cpaid	-54.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a99…7059backed Yes	55c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.18per pick	68cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Stephen Miran be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event