Us Politics · resolved market

Will Susie Wiles be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb189fb5dbf237c4646ee5ea7c083786e42f91aa71cf0fb737c189cc3513a126a

Rebuilt 24 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 3, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $66,208
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $49,177

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,208 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0db5…40ffbacked Yes	1c	3,709$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.25	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked Yes	1c	3,007$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.08	110	31.8%35 W · 75 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e59…aa0dbacked Yes	5c	1,997$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes	1c	1,679$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.98	73	6.8%5 W · 68 L	+3.1wins	+0.04per pick	3cpaid	+36.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Yes	1c	1,271$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.39	48	14.6%7 W · 41 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	-53.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes	17c	1,201$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201.47	556	18.5%103 W · 453 L	+8.0wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	1,100$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.01	1,136	6.3%72 W · 1,064 L	-25.9wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-55.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes	3c	1,000$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.59	187	25.1%47 W · 140 L	+10.5wins	+0.06per pick	20cpaid	-14%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc3de…e227backed Yes	2c	854.22$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.42	78	30.8%24 W · 54 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes	3c	852.57$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.55	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	+1.1wins	+0.07per pick	6cpaid	+41.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc25…eb62backed Yes	17c	710$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.55	4	25%1 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84ea…17ebbacked Yes	4c	672.31$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.29	87	39.1%34 W · 53 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes	5c	635.42$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.84	333	13.2%44 W · 289 L	+9.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ffb…751cbacked Yes	4c	582.42$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.98	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8f…eab4backed Yes	10c	514.61$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a57…b867backed Yes	4c	504.92$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.77	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x514c…0c04backed Yes	15c	503$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.95	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes	4c	500$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.8	146	6.2%9 W · 137 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes	16c	477.93$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77	318	40.3%128 W · 190 L	-9.7wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-26%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	4c	477.69$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.58	94	3.2%3 W · 91 L	-8.3wins	-0.09per pick	12cpaid	-69.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf9ff…f3f3backed Yes	15c	434.19$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bea…d593backed Yes	13c	427$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.5	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes	12c	423.62$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.76	567	33.2%188 W · 379 L	-40.9wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4dbd…bc10backed Yes	18c	330$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	27cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b98…5cfabacked Yes	9c	315.01$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.85	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3ccb…3135backed Yes	16c	300$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.2	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.7wins	+0.09per pick	16cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9ff…e17ebacked Yes	4c	250$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c01…30d5backed Yes	9c	225.23$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab88…e0a4backed Yes	12c	219$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.5	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf25b…82d0backed Yes	17c	200$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.2	31	9.7%3 W · 28 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb11e…84c5backed Yes	9c	156$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.06	32	31.3%10 W · 22 L	+2.2wins	+0.07per pick	25cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x50ef…c6b5backed Yes	18c	120$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa87…2716backed Yes	19c	106$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.1	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-50.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7063…9b11backed Yes	20c	99.88$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.05per pick	20cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe53d…8ab8backed Yes	12c	97$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.74	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.14per pick	36cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95f6…dd39backed Yes	19c	90$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.1	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.13per pick	46cpaid	-51%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x58e1…a5cdbacked Yes	12c	89$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.77	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xf049…29fdbacked Yes	12c	86$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.41	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe361…bf48backed Yes	21c	85.63$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.7wins	+0.09per pick	16cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Susie Wiles be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event