Us Politics · resolved market

Will Howard Lutnick be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x340ca86ffb1b02761b89b7b908ad895c766fb79329721f50dc4a2f61c9e10773

Rebuilt 22 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 3, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $142,348
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $124,206

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $142,348 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd98f…5d9abacked Yes	10c	5,169$499 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$498.74	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.17per pick	33cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5416…3a8bbacked Yes	1c	3,994$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.96	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked Yes	1c	3,817$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.94	110	31.8%35 W · 75 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes	0c	3,250$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.5	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	+0.8wins	+0.06per pick	9cpaid	-71%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91c7…ab6dbacked Yes	1c	2,679$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.75	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes	1c	2,185$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.66	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	+44.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc3de…e227backed Yes	1c	2,174$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.34	78	30.8%24 W · 54 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	1,993$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.71	1,136	6.3%72 W · 1,064 L	-25.9wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-55.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Yes	2c	1,686$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.47	48	14.6%7 W · 41 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	-53.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes	2c	1,587$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.89	73	6.8%5 W · 68 L	+3.1wins	+0.04per pick	3cpaid	+36.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8646…ed78backed Yes	1c	1,426$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.98	7	0%0 W · 7 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	1c	1,267$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.85	122	7.4%9 W · 113 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-63.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaba5…a69ebacked Yes	2c	1,241$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	+1.4wins	+0.08per pick	9cpaid	+72.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd6b…44d8backed Yes	8c	1,045$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.86	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes	1c	999.99$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	86	15.1%13 W · 73 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	-39.1%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xd9f6…4790backed Yes	3c	948.05$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.28	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.34per pick	16cpaid	+70.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No	73c	804.52$586 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$218.02	165	35.8%59 W · 106 L	+18.3wins	+0.11per pick	25cpaid	+86.2%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9a64…9f01backed Yes	7c	731.95$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	16	50%8 W · 8 L	+2.5wins	+0.15per pick	35cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes	2c	638.27$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.32	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	+1.1wins	+0.07per pick	6cpaid	+41.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes	3c	467$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.03	26	26.9%7 W · 19 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	22cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4c1…7324backed Yes	5c	410.2$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x180f…9286backed Yes	3c	355.83$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+1.9wins	+0.23per pick	27cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1435…c15dbacked Yes	6c	348.83$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	4c	279.21$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.54	94	3.2%3 W · 91 L	-8.3wins	-0.09per pick	12cpaid	-69.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8026…2f99backed Yes	6c	265.99$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.99	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	+2.7wins	+0.12per pick	32cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	6c	223.02$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.47	82	7.3%6 W · 76 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b74…9a30backed Yes	5c	210$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94db…7c5abacked Yes	15c	132.42$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.19per pick	31cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf03…3f1dbacked Yes	10c	109.5$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.15	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-1.7wins	-0.12per pick	41cpaid	-43.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Howard Lutnick be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event