TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Epstein blackmail evidence released by March 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,309,926
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,353,432

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,309,926 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 825 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe598…a0a8backed No3c468,231$14,751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,750.83663.9%23 W · 13 L+3.9wins+0.11per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x357e…2a0cbacked No29c63,280$18,531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,531.032157.1%12 W · 9 L+4.0wins+0.19per pick38cpaid+72.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc851…cd2abacked Yes63c46,196$29,327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,868.914542.2%19 W · 26 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No26c45,447$11,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,727.9344111.3%50 W · 391 L-44.5wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-52.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xee32…463abacked No29c29,260$8,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,358.85333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c14…0869backed No2c29,133$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578.255942.4%25 W · 34 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed No25c27,102$6,662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,662.2614135.5%50 W · 91 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5ad…b0cfbacked No6c22,000$1,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,308.35616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-72.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed No1c21,300$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.9111419.3%22 W · 92 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c1e…bfe7backed No11c20,058$2,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,154.7210127.7%28 W · 73 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No28c19,738$5,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,464.6520446.6%95 W · 109 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d77…b72cbacked Yes69c17,000$11,776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,223.86475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No34c16,627$5,664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,663.7635519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1516…ce23backed No34c14,470$4,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,919.810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes74c14,406$10,697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,709.1617850%89 W · 89 L+8.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No34c14,195$4,812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,812.1769634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed No23c13,706$3,135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,134.9215032.7%49 W · 101 L+7.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-17.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb01…02e5backed No8c13,345$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,079.82040%8 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2592…839abacked No28c13,293$3,690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,689.59633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick21cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e65…e33fbacked Yes78c13,286$10,355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,930.951553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa92d…4e71backed Yes74c13,079$9,741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,337.76450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f6b…267ebacked No2c12,303$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.0913818.1%25 W · 113 L-0.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid-56.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed No27c12,210$3,347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,347.1932626.4%86 W · 240 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb95d…1815backed No22c12,150$2,661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,660.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa72a…93fdbacked Yes73c12,076$8,810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,266.28560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5ad…6065backed No23c11,800$2,749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,749.420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbae2…05f2backed No30c11,581$3,443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,442.9240%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x44c7…62dabacked Yes73c11,022$8,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,021.76742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.22per pick65cpaid-44%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x247c…45a8backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-64.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x751a…9ea1backed Yes70c9,999$6,979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,019.83333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-52.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed No27c9,634$2,644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,643.7316144.7%72 W · 89 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95c8…f511backed No23c9,177$2,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,110.764531.1%14 W · 31 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-23.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb714…a191backed No28c7,269$2,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,006.96560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid-16%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No4c7,159$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.8211010%11 W · 99 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-32%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc913…5966backed No33c7,150$2,381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,380.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes80c7,021$5,584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,436.411090%9 W · 1 L+3.4wins+0.34per pick56cpaid+83.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x418f…44fabacked No29c6,981$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-72.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes72c6,865$4,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,945.354938.8%19 W · 30 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-19.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7816…b85ebacked No30c6,850$2,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,061.110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf397…e1dabacked No37c6,683$2,477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,476.991216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-51.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e80…f694backed No30c6,302$1,872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,871.54560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed No12c6,000$743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.22123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid-44.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe336…44dcbacked Yes70c5,967$4,157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,810.4333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-52.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes74c5,941$4,418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,522.475527.3%15 W · 40 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-49%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd71…d127backed No29c5,837$1,690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,690.191464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick63cpaid-12.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No18c5,705$1,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,022.5856733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7da6…4ff3backed Yes70c5,671$3,991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,680.15333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick58cpaid-52.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a65…25adbacked Yes73c5,486$3,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,506785.7%6 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick73cpaid+15%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad28…1601backed Yes66c5,458$3,614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,843.214731.9%15 W · 32 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-43.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No1c5,125$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4513714.6%20 W · 117 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9d5…6b9abacked No21c5,024$1,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,074.6940%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf98b…bfc5backed No20c5,000$975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$975633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-46.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5078…00e9backed No23c4,943$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,150250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-22.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2917…be8fbacked No26c4,893$1,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,288.131361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick44cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed No28c4,630$1,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,309.6211936.1%43 W · 76 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ae…f471backed Yes77c4,430$3,426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,004.694266.7%28 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-2.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc639…c5a2backed No27c4,389$1,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,196.061154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x991b…f19abacked Yes75c4,319$3,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,090.771127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-55.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xca1e…75edbacked No3c4,300$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.54353.5%23 W · 20 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+24.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1532…4e40backed Yes66c4,066$2,684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,382.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes70c4,022$2,804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,217.9599629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed No25c4,000$985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$984.55832.8%19 W · 39 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Yes74c4,000$2,958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0421136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-42.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3352…46d2backed Yes67c3,950$2,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,315.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2c4…c131backed No21c3,943$826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$825.793231.3%10 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-0.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc66…835ebacked Yes66c3,701$2,443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,258.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa88d…221cbacked No18c3,653$642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641.924136.6%15 W · 26 L+4.3wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+64.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5927…7cacbacked Yes74c3,650$2,714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$935.78366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+27.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5660…e124backed Yes66c3,649$2,408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,240.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed No29c3,508$1,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,017.4110145.5%46 W · 55 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5614…4893backed Yes70c3,500$2,464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0361100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe1a…aceabacked Yes79c3,480$2,765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$714.571729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-59.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed No10c3,398$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.6518425%46 W · 138 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x094e…f10bbacked No26c3,380$888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$888.299347.3%44 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d0c…f852backed Yes69c3,350$2,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,025.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed No17c3,333$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557.7221634.3%74 W · 142 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked No16c3,303$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.3233313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x833d…c788backed Yes71c3,288$2,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$957.96666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.38per pick28cpaid+275%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4936…d146backed Yes78c3,250$2,538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$711.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fa6…401cbacked No3c3,205$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca06…3de6backed Yes67c3,200$2,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,065.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa461…182dbacked Yes77c3,200$2,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cd1…969ebacked Yes78c3,200$2,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$700.82100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5682…97afbacked Yes73c3,162$2,324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$838.71250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb44f…20d6backed Yes77c3,100$2,378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$722.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed No28c3,067$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$849.568453.6%45 W · 39 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbec7…22efbacked No33c3,063$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3e4…4882backed Yes66c3,054$2,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,038.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4fc…a926backed No39c3,047$1,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,174.51540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98c3…a6a2backed Yes72c3,045$2,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$853.53333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-53.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes64c3,000$1,913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,087.311747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+18.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d98…0a43backed Yes78c3,000$2,343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6571100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed No5c3,000$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.786230.6%19 W · 43 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick35cpaid+29.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x60d1…0c8fbacked Yes75c2,996$2,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$755.61837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7255…67e0backed No19c2,941$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546.62742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-40.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed No21c2,940$629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.273435.3%12 W · 22 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-26.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc96a…702cbacked Yes78c2,924$2,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$644.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf603…82f1backed No28c2,880$801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801.16825%2 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-60%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6b4…6709backed Yes77c2,868$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$667.51250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-34.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No17c2,864$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.561,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.