TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Epstein blackmail evidence released in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,257,040
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,101,454

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,257,040 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 264 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc5ad…b0cfbacked No6c920,791$54,435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54,434.81616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-72.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No0c348,333$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.3320446.6%95 W · 109 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5e4…28aabacked No0c288,889$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.89520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-59.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fef…0cc5backed No0c204,423$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.182425%6 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc690…0decbacked No0c200,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90b6…a1b0backed No0c200,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001822.2%4 W · 14 L-3.9wins-0.21per pick44cpaid-69.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x699a…8e8abacked No0c145,312$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x294d…b362backed No0c133,000$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.49per pick17cpaid+231.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0ead…9572backed No3c131,831$3,751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,751.22425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-67.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadc1…8431backed No0c121,000$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15f3…5844backed No0c120,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd205…5e07backed No0c116,000$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No3c109,896$3,632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,631.9135519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe9f…8522backed No0c107,290$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a14…ce1fbacked No0c103,000$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8406…b962backed No0c103,000$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed No3c101,445$2,565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,564.766230.6%19 W · 43 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick35cpaid+29.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x060a…e99abacked No0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x694c…2945backed No0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c64…5199backed No0c100,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b1b…fa1dbacked No0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda16…8e5abacked No0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked No0c85,200$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.45111.8%6 W · 45 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-42.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e9a…f3bbbacked No1c81,175$992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991.811957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.14per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x36da…8218backed No0c80,000$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1153721.6%8 W · 29 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f85…8693backed No0c70,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702615.4%4 W · 22 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-69.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1eaf…c10fbacked No0c63,540$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No26c58,262$15,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,255.912871.4%20 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8455…7315backed No0c56,300$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No0c51,000$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51610%0 W · 61 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3806…f4c4backed No5c42,800$2,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,096.9440%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed No3c42,000$1,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,132.7511936.1%43 W · 76 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c1e…bfe7backed No2c39,547$716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$716.4610127.7%28 W · 73 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9bb…93c2backed No0c36,667$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3838…2c6fbacked No0c36,185$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.87911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.17per pick28cpaid-85.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdaad…69ccbacked No3c35,360$1,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,002.19933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick20cpaid-20.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x79ad…a9f1backed No3c34,517$1,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,041.346038.3%23 W · 37 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-34%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x874b…90cbbacked No0c34,000$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb876…a86bbacked No0c31,000$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-37.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5244…83bcbacked No0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e45…09e5backed No0c24,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b3b…2959backed No0c23,000$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3475…eea8backed No1c22,838$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.623141.9%13 W · 18 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+31.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7e41…e46cbacked No0c22,000$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8208…1742backed No0c22,000$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a05…c170backed No0c21,540$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54f0…7a91backed No0c21,325$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.65323.1%1 W · 31 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-77.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a72…6ef8backed No0c21,110$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.11366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd331…7b24backed No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd82b…8d25backed No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe624…c78abacked No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x517a…6491backed No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-54.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4d3…03b5backed No0c18,880$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f6b…267ebacked No3c17,474$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.0213818.1%25 W · 113 L-0.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid-56.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0836…5a7abacked No0c16,370$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b1a…b7ecbacked No0c16,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc487…005fbacked No0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f5b…b993backed No3c15,000$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4351010%1 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick32cpaid-87.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb6b4…6709backed No0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-34.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa81e…03dcbacked No38c14,738$5,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,660.04540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+66.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x166f…6e2dbacked No0c13,990$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.99333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick15cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bab…1292backed No5c13,808$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$686.776546.2%30 W · 35 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+29.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbae2…05f2backed No7c13,376$957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$956.9140%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b19…c1f1backed No0c13,333$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed No0c12,434$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.743221.9%7 W · 25 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-57.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfff1…9c26backed No0c11,980$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad4d…06bcbacked No0c11,760$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74f1…dc99backed No0c11,500$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x103b…33d6backed No0c11,331$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0668…7349backed No0c11,250$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60a8…ab1fbacked No0c11,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4595…b2e1backed No0c10,780$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed No4c10,779$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.7232626.4%86 W · 240 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd241…78b0backed No1c10,697$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64f3…5505backed No0c10,500$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc736…1fc2backed No0c10,250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.25812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+48.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb132…2143backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b75…ad3ebacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb735…e499backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bac…8684backed No4c10,000$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.68911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-78.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf32a…06fdbacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-53.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc981…a75dbacked No0c10,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303928.2%11 W · 28 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-28.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd760…178bbacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7223…89e3backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60b4…c103backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2ac…67b8backed No0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1580…e76bbacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f98…542ebacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3d…f572backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-30.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc709…2123backed No0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-67.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94d2…9ccabacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3578…4277backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x751a…9ea1backed No7c9,999$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$670.21333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-52.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98c3…a6a2backed No0c9,593$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.52333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-53.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8733…931cbacked No0c9,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe598…a0a8backed Yes55c8,375$4,608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,767.413663.9%23 W · 13 L+3.9wins+0.11per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbb01…02e5backed No6c8,351$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.082040%8 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4044…8de5backed No4c8,100$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.081861.1%11 W · 7 L+4.7wins+0.26per pick35cpaid+62.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xa6ea…b2b9backed No0c8,000$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x614e…4f1bbacked No2c7,888$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.6650%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.