TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xc736…1fc2

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
70
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Tweets, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Tweets at 56 out of 100; worst Premier League at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jan 28, 2026, EST4731.9%15 W · 32 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick24cpaid+75.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Tweets — the 47 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$36.97
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST+78.5%+$81.69
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$49.65
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$36.61
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST+73.6%+$47.52
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$66.45
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$75.09
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$53
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$147Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+65.6%+$96.62
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$118.52
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+851%+$246.8
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$69.77
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+164.5%+$83.38
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$30.48
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+28.2%+$9.69
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$13.37
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+127%+$121.37
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+74.3%+$111.55
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$72
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$26.36
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+118.6%+$78.42
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$31
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST+130%+$143.09
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Showing 25 of 47 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+48.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jan 21, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+96.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 28, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jan 24, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Grok 4.20 released by January 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST-100%-$61.19
All 2 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 5, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.45
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$37.54
All 2 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Jan 23, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-01-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST+46.1%+$36.9
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Jan 23, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will AJ Auxerre vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$36.11
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.