AI · resolved market
Grok 4.20 released by January 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec5dc3a416ebcf198eb7341937c53f80fc64533d6a54f70c6cb1ba7ba7520181
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,082
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,156
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,082 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc22c…bfc7backed Yes | 2c | 8,561$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.07 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc76…0ad0backed No | 79c | 6,867$5,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,467.5 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6d…b3febacked Yes | 2c | 2,497$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.58 | 43 | 4.7%2 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeed…7718backed Yes | 2c | 2,277$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.54 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d7…1b55backed Yes | 2c | 2,151$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 5c | 1,900$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…1713backed Yes | 8c | 1,731$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd7…9c85backed Yes | 65c | 1,419$918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$917.84 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 1,274$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.91 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,263$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.66 | 55 | 3.6%2 W · 53 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x409d…8e77backed Yes | 14c | 1,086$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…369fbacked No | 41c | 1,067$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.51 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3bf…1c60backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5354…710dbacked Yes | 6c | 988.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes | 21c | 986.07$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.16 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 6c | 945.82$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.39 | 72 | 4.2%3 W · 69 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x749f…9501backed Yes | 18c | 885.36$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc7…68a3backed Yes | 18c | 822.87$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd2…1f27backed Yes | 9c | 673.15$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca88…efb2backed No | 76c | 654.8$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 618.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 117 | 5.1%6 W · 111 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…a25ebacked Yes | 10c | 607.6$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1605…43bfbacked Yes | 21c | 532.32$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.83 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 18c | 529$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.28 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 31c | 499.99$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 18c | 438.78$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.19 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53b4…0139backed Yes | 23c | 421.36$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.34 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94fe…eff9backed Yes | 8c | 400$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +140.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffef…d7dbbacked Yes | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4448…8e94backed Yes | 8c | 374.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a80…729cbacked Yes | 9c | 349.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 332.91$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x844a…5f53backed Yes | 15c | 318.43$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.46 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63a4…9281backed No | 79c | 286.66$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Yes | 9c | 278.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Yes | 4c | 277.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 6c | 272.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 7c | 270$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 15cpaid | -92.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc462…c00ebacked Yes | 10c | 256.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f2d…ddc1backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9604…fc1dbacked No | 66c | 248.63$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7c…4ce2backed Yes | 18c | 244.12$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7619…6ee7backed Yes | 9c | 225$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe73b…b1e9backed Yes | 8c | 218.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4703…ce7fbacked Yes | 14c | 218.54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 46c | 216.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.8 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf84…703cbacked Yes | 11c | 210.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc736…1fc2backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…e84dbacked No | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x706a…d524backed Yes | 8c | 199.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7914…d719backed Yes | 12c | 170.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b3…6193backed Yes | 27c | 159.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc7…0a2bbacked Yes | 33c | 149.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc39d…ef20backed No | 76c | 147.34$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe765…603cbacked No | 79c | 127.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cad…d35cbacked Yes | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa249…12fabacked Yes | 10c | 113.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b5…6562backed No | 78c | 108.97$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 34c | 107.8$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.17 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa7af…1283backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd4…d37abacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5569…648abacked Yes | 27c | 84.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb37f…fdcfbacked No | 74c | 81.2$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65fe…4953backed No | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…d453backed Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 143 | 39.2%56 W · 87 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 76c | 54.98$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 139 | 71.9%100 W · 39 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84fa…1327backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x757b…a0e2backed Yes | 46c | 47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…2bc2backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1df7…8dd0backed No | 67c | 29.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85a1…f54bbacked No | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7063…b177backed No | 71c | 17.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grok 4.20 released by January 9?this page
- Grok 4.20 released by December 31?No won
- Grok 4.20 released by February 14?No won
- Grok 4.20 released by February 28?Yes won
- Grok 4.20 released by January 15?No won
- Grok 4.20 released by January 31?No won
- Grok 4.20 released by March 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.