AI · resolved market
Grok 4.20 released by January 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19e8f46e754b1f235585c29a76000d0f227517a9dcb44f56877f10bb32c7203c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $125,560
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $104,896
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $125,560 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 158 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfc76…0ad0backed No | 49c | 19,345$9,404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,940.55 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 17c | 9,635$1,601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,601.46 | 631 | 1.3%8 W · 623 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a7…9e54backed Yes | 3c | 7,197$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.11 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53b4…0139backed Yes | 58c | 4,314$2,503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,502.89 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes | 79c | 3,200$2,528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,528 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6df1…ea12backed Yes | 36c | 3,148$1,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,126.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes | 2c | 1,827$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.41 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed No | 58c | 1,805$1,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.58 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x409d…8e77backed Yes | 31c | 1,780$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd2…1f27backed Yes | 8c | 1,710$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 3c | 1,627$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.61 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -89.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b7…297bbacked Yes | 31c | 1,614$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63a4…9281backed Yes | 8c | 1,528$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.91 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc128…20d1backed Yes | 3c | 1,465$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6d…b3febacked Yes | 8c | 1,446$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.07 | 43 | 4.7%2 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,416$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 55 | 3.6%2 W · 53 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…369fbacked No | 16c | 1,361$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,146.43 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…495abacked Yes | 15c | 1,330$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,295$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.81 | 117 | 5.1%6 W · 111 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 2c | 1,253$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 86 | 5.8%5 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 1,220$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e96…6373backed Yes | 17c | 1,182$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7800…eae9backed Yes | 24c | 1,152$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.84 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c86…a4edbacked Yes | 11c | 1,096$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09d7…1b55backed Yes | 8c | 1,081$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…dc58backed No | 11c | 1,063$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$947.75 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5354…710dbacked Yes | 11c | 1,053$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked No | 72c | 976.23$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.51 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked No | 28c | 971.94$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.6 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2257…31adbacked Yes | 21c | 931.42$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 70c | 892.32$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.5 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f83…6cd9backed Yes | 16c | 840.79$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.53 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 47c | 836.9$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.69 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffef…d7dbbacked Yes | 11c | 778.9$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.26 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc22c…bfc7backed Yes | 6c | 679.75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.38 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcce5…5672backed Yes | 7c | 671.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4020…11d1backed Yes | 60c | 660.45$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 14c | 658.25$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.44 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cde…a9d2backed Yes | 20c | 644.65$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…202dbacked No | 52c | 631.39$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.9 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…5df9backed No | 16c | 609.33$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.62 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +157.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…8bc8backed Yes | 12c | 584.31$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x467c…b348backed Yes | 45c | 564.53$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.85 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca9…a291backed Yes | 9c | 549.97$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +129.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee8…79dfbacked No | 64c | 500$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes | 38c | 500$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2f…b226backed No | 69c | 499.98$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfda…9be3backed Yes | 70c | 469.68$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.53 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bac…8769backed Yes | 3c | 427.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed No | 73c | 411.67$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.67 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 17c | 407.67$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.41 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 19c | 400$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.17 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2015…3ddcbacked No | 38c | 392.75$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed No | 13c | 387.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +287.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x749f…9501backed No | 77c | 379$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.17 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 11c | 352$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe637…48ecbacked Yes | 15c | 340.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 7c | 332.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.99 | 298 | 30.5%91 W · 207 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9982…23c1backed Yes | 11c | 324.04$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 5c | 317.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 372 | 44.9%167 W · 205 L | +28.8wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8330…b88fbacked No | 69c | 300.01$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 62c | 300$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94fe…eff9backed Yes | 16c | 300$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +140.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0049…6034backed Yes | 80c | 296.4$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.05 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60a2…9d26backed Yes | 18c | 276.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 38cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4703…ce7fbacked Yes | 20c | 267.08$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.72 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa79f…53b7backed No | 13c | 260.17$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +276%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 11c | 252.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 28c | 242.22$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.09 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaadb…85f9backed Yes | 17c | 235.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…de8dbacked Yes | 38c | 234.83$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22b3…62e0backed Yes | 32c | 227.92$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 23c | 210.69$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18be…88a1backed Yes | 24c | 210.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 16c | 207.13$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 736 | 35.6%262 W · 474 L | -58.5wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 47c | 206.92$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.16 | 899 | 17%153 W · 746 L | -146.2wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…2700backed No | 33c | 200$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeed…7718backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ce…54a5backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 60c | 190$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.88 | 91 | 57.1%52 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed No | 12c | 182.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.55 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3606…4e08backed Yes | 6c | 180$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49b1…0f4dbacked No | 75c | 179.09$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.49 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0764…6e11backed No | 78c | 178.96$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.35 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +123.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…084ebacked Yes | 22c | 178.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Yes | 25c | 157$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71d…3f27backed Yes | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bc…15fdbacked Yes | 9c | 150.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc14…2e9bbacked Yes | 28c | 150$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.75 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a80…729cbacked Yes | 22c | 150$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ba…f14fbacked No | 73c | 143.17$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae5c…347fbacked No | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +368.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f9…9de0backed No | 78c | 141.44$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +91.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24f4…0f4abacked Yes | 29c | 139.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…9c6dbacked No | 15c | 136.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.62 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.9wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +310%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xab00…3c39backed No | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.89per pick | 11cpaid | +809.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef0b…10f5backed No | 78c | 127.66$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 23c | 125.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17b9…cad6backed No | 16c | 122.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +273.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grok 4.20 released by January 15?this page
- Grok 4.20 released by December 31?No won
- Grok 4.20 released by February 14?No won
- Grok 4.20 released by February 28?Yes won
- Grok 4.20 released by January 31?No won
- Grok 4.20 released by January 9?No won
- Grok 4.20 released by March 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.