AI · resolved market
Grok 4.20 released by February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b26eaf5b136347982958d999553283b5062ff6ed7e2a07cc7aedeee755d0839
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $198,915
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $186,372
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $198,915 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 140 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90a7…9e54backed No | 8c | 53,718$4,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,213.08 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc76…0ad0backed Yes | 62c | 16,025$9,963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,062.38 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e44…edabbacked No | 1c | 13,333$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9982…23c1backed No | 27c | 11,067$3,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,020.92 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…084ebacked No | 7c | 8,342$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.15 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes | 73c | 7,034$5,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,914.57 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc72b…c108backed No | 0c | 6,063$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1b…1419backed No | 7c | 3,366$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.86 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8500…3988backed No | 9c | 3,242$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 41c | 2,780$1,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140.89 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 5c | 2,323$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.62 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 3c | 2,272$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.93 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 19c | 2,171$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.59 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -89.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…dc58backed No | 17c | 2,040$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.55 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked No | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 5cpaid | +100.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79a8…44c4backed No | 1c | 1,830$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cf…1e59backed No | 3c | 1,820$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.41 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09e6…24a1backed No | 9c | 1,570$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.44 | 109 | 33.9%37 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c73…44f4backed No | 55c | 1,530$844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$843.54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 1c | 1,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 44c | 1,171$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.89 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed Yes | 68c | 1,163$787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.89 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e6…9767backed No | 13c | 1,153$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.11 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6768…692dbacked No | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14a1…ab45backed No | 1c | 1,034$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x131e…b41bbacked No | 6c | 999.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 4c | 946.38$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x659d…a037backed Yes | 51c | 883.99$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.15 | 46 | 13%6 W · 40 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf26f…fa14backed No | 5c | 841.21$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 37c | 741.24$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.08 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1767…964ebacked No | 9c | 707$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.23 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed No | 3c | 642.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -82.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…331abacked No | 51c | 600$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b37…c799backed No | 51c | 597.29$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.89 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…4682backed Yes | 46c | 565.8$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.92 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 54c | 525.51$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.95 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedca…c2a8backed No | 58c | 513.08$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked No | 19c | 440$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.4 | 143 | 39.2%56 W · 87 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82e4…1d09backed No | 55c | 425.62$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.08 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01fe…79f4backed No | 8c | 423.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x864b…dfedbacked No | 7c | 413.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef1a…2289backed No | 8c | 405.03$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd3…d749backed No | 9c | 379.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 21c | 376.32$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.02 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +19.9wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x2179…2fe8backed No | 8c | 375$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a3…169dbacked No | 14c | 360$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.4 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5e…4fecbacked No | 57c | 351.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed No | 9c | 342.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3cc…447cbacked No | 7c | 340.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…369fbacked No | 6c | 340$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e47…a510backed No | 9c | 333.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 6c | 311.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb19…a046backed No | 9c | 309.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5742…5e12backed Yes | 47c | 303.51$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.5 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 53c | 295.55$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.94 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…a75fbacked Yes | 43c | 280$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.6 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x372b…347cbacked No | 7c | 278.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f86…fea9backed No | 54c | 255.84$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.39 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c55…5dc2backed No | 8c | 253.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 51c | 244.18$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.74 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98eb…75a4backed No | 8c | 240.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…5e33backed No | 52c | 230$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.6 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7815…5400backed No | 47c | 228.66$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.98 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…bf4dbacked No | 55c | 228.48$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f35…7428backed No | 9c | 223.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5216…a91dbacked No | 51c | 223.26$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 76c | 218.29$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.57 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 62c | 210.15$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.98 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +16.6wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7525…1ab3backed No | 8c | 208.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x841e…90fcbacked Yes | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.42per pick | 25cpaid | +706.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 41c | 200$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.3 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…24ffbacked No | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d80…ee14backed No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72cf…09bbbacked Yes | 62c | 195$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170a…1db9backed No | 7c | 186.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc8…8f53backed No | 10c | 175.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b7…f543backed No | 8c | 169.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 53c | 164.71$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.08 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9985…6afabacked No | 9c | 156.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04bd…f2f3backed No | 18c | 151.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8296…fecabacked No | 28c | 150.39$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.65 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…6fa5backed No | 65c | 149$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.85 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed No | 39c | 126.07$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.04 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x236e…bc2ebacked No | 8c | 125.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd74a…2d72backed No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 21c | 122.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50ad…846fbacked No | 9c | 122.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9039…d819backed No | 67c | 118.77$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked No | 9c | 115.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2997…63fdbacked Yes | 49c | 108.93$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.74 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49d7…1635backed No | 10c | 108.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 53c | 103.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.56 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x87c1…d49bbacked Yes | 49c | 102.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.55 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 25c | 100.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4a…6cb1backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…2bc2backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd983…ac11backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grok 4.20 released by February 28?this page
- Grok 4.20 released by December 31?No won
- Grok 4.20 released by February 14?No won
- Grok 4.20 released by January 15?No won
- Grok 4.20 released by January 31?No won
- Grok 4.20 released by January 9?No won
- Grok 4.20 released by March 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.