AI · resolved market
Grok 4.20 released by January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54c2e442fb5b355e359f9ff6417264985ce784771d42f4b99aecdce259fa06e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $164,299
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $154,631
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $164,299 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 201 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6df1…ea12backed Yes | 59c | 7,133$4,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,230.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…9f09backed No | 74c | 6,566$4,881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,684.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90a7…9e54backed No | 54c | 6,183$3,323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,860.2 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 20c | 4,127$811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$811.06 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 19c | 3,519$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,850.95 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68c…66d6backed No | 54c | 2,864$1,533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,331.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37b6…6457backed No | 35c | 2,787$986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,800.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +182.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 25c | 2,781$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,095.83 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 33c | 2,566$846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$845.87 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -89.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40b1…d3c9backed Yes | 29c | 2,542$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741.65 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 40c | 2,345$935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,410.06 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 31c | 2,319$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.26 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 24c | 2,189$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,660.36 | 88 | 64.8%57 W · 31 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47c6…0a15backed Yes | 8c | 2,175$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.76 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d2…0d37backed No | 80c | 2,170$1,731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6768…692dbacked No | 46c | 2,130$984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,146.57 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe6…b39ebacked No | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,079.97 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…369fbacked No | 15c | 1,948$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,656.12 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…5df9backed No | 23c | 1,900$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,472.45 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +157.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9982…23c1backed Yes | 26c | 1,857$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.92 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa72c…f5a6backed No | 51c | 1,856$947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$908.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed Yes | 37c | 1,856$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.04 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x467c…b348backed Yes | 56c | 1,527$853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.51 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 12c | 1,419$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8296…fecabacked No | 47c | 1,378$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735.56 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb0…73c8backed Yes | 31c | 1,311$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd86e…ee3ebacked Yes | 16c | 1,264$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.32 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48f3…104fbacked No | 7c | 1,155$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,074.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 28cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…2bc2backed No | 68c | 1,140$779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.16 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 29c | 1,126$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.19 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29a6…06afbacked No | 48c | 1,036$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc22c…bfc7backed No | 33c | 1,035$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.28 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6d…b3febacked Yes | 9c | 999.98$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 43 | 4.7%2 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 77c | 988.34$758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.01 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…dc58backed Yes | 10c | 963.57$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.54 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4a…6cb1backed Yes | 80c | 962.71$766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766.22 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe23…6f64backed Yes | 15c | 953.82$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea4…f4acbacked Yes | 10c | 950$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc2…0933backed Yes | 10c | 933.46$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.2 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 8c | 900$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 86 | 5.8%5 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 42c | 832.31$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.2 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 56c | 828.22$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.87 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbea…e2b0backed Yes | 78c | 806$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 5c | 772.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked No | 32c | 770.8$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.74 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 7c | 767.35$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.85 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed No | 33c | 750.86$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.11 | 67 | 16.4%11 W · 56 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e8…403ebacked No | 12c | 743.18$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +175.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 19c | 652.08$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.89 | 94 | 35.1%33 W · 61 L | +13.1wins | +0.14per pick | 21cpaid | +167%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x500a…d063backed Yes | 26c | 605.95$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffef…d7dbbacked No | 13c | 561.52$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.98 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…6934backed No | 7c | 546.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +583%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…202dbacked No | 32c | 541.31$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.18 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 8c | 537.81$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.34 | 55 | 3.6%2 W · 53 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…b2d5backed Yes | 4c | 519.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -92.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes | 73c | 514$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.06 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 18c | 512.65$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.73 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb5…6e5bbacked No | 6c | 500$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +818.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1b…a11dbacked No | 12c | 476.57$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.97 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…495abacked Yes | 79c | 459.39$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x743a…ddcdbacked Yes | 11c | 428.6$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc100…4b42backed Yes | 60c | 416.75$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4429…efc2backed No | 50c | 408.7$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…5f94backed No | 21c | 402.35$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +209.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 19c | 400$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe336…44dcbacked No | 20c | 384.62$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.78 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +220%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 10c | 375.88$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.38 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f8…2752backed Yes | 74c | 360$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a80…729cbacked Yes | 56c | 343.85$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.11 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7525…1ab3backed No | 52c | 337.88$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked No | 28c | 319.97$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.88 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x337b…fb62backed Yes | 13c | 313.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b16…8d75backed Yes | 52c | 309$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f5…effcbacked No | 48c | 308.99$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked No | 9c | 308.96$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.15 | 72 | 4.2%3 W · 69 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes | 80c | 300$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -7.2wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x037c…2212backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4d…0645backed Yes | 76c | 292.48$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 46c | 279.11$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.65 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf614…689abacked No | 36c | 278.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.58 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b98…5cfabacked No | 10c | 267.24$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.1 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +3.0wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +283.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c7…2ddfbacked No | 16c | 260$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +315.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38c8…46cbbacked Yes | 71c | 260$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +116.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 24c | 239.84$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.14 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +19.9wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xa894…5184backed No | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a7…46c4backed No | 52c | 234.2$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.77 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f12…dcefbacked No | 43c | 230.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +130.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 10c | 228$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…33e2backed Yes | 31c | 223$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.46 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xece0…7cdfbacked No | 33c | 220.86$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63a4…9281backed No | 42c | 214.14$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.08 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x749f…9501backed No | 10c | 212.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.5 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…3ae6backed No | 24c | 202.94$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.41 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5304…47f8backed No | 52c | 201.66$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07e9…37b6backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x735d…78cfbacked Yes | 20c | 199.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 99 | 15.2%15 W · 84 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0764…6e11backed No | 25c | 198.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.81 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +123.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…a22abacked Yes | 56c | 198$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa76b…f8bcbacked Yes | 55c | 180$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1373…7fabbacked Yes | 63c | 175.56$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grok 4.20 released by January 31?this page
- Grok 4.20 released by December 31?No won
- Grok 4.20 released by February 14?No won
- Grok 4.20 released by February 28?Yes won
- Grok 4.20 released by January 15?No won
- Grok 4.20 released by January 9?No won
- Grok 4.20 released by March 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.