AI · resolved market
Grok 4.20 released by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb042910abb25d1114f6d1329f68f3c39bef802bd45c54212ea061089bfb790a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $152,957
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $145,754
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $152,957 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 192 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes | 11c | 12,502$1,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,367.61 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 8,750$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.76 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ce…beecbacked Yes | 19c | 8,500$1,594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,594.49 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 8c | 8,293$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.45 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes | 2c | 5,611$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.13 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3bf…1c60backed Yes | 11c | 5,499$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee4…276fbacked No | 76c | 4,038$3,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$964.4 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb5…7588backed Yes | 10c | 3,717$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes | 4c | 3,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…369fbacked No | 74c | 2,971$2,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$783.47 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,410$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53b4…0139backed Yes | 14c | 2,100$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.49 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Yes | 28c | 2,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.2 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 15cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 1,779$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 1,718$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.44 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc45…6805backed Yes | 30c | 1,644$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.82 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 5c | 1,517$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…87e0backed Yes | 22c | 1,507$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6422…a346backed Yes | 17c | 1,487$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,458$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.69 | 72 | 4.2%3 W · 69 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbae2…05f2backed Yes | 12c | 1,455$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4417…90e3backed No | 80c | 1,446$1,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes | 20c | 1,319$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.05 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56ba…8d6dbacked Yes | 17c | 1,311$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77fd…b6c8backed No | 79c | 1,215$955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.22 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,208$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 117 | 5.1%6 W · 111 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 14c | 1,109$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.41 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 80c | 1,103$882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.63 | 88 | 64.8%57 W · 31 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 22c | 1,014$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb9…3870backed Yes | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 13c | 999.99$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2163…ac09backed Yes | 4c | 916.86$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 74c | 893.18$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.55 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +11.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb5…4df8backed Yes | 23c | 857.66$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5354…710dbacked Yes | 12c | 849.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce2…5f90backed Yes | 3c | 822.31$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1d…1e79backed Yes | 4c | 792.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb36c…8715backed Yes | 16c | 750$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +146.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b3…6193backed Yes | 9c | 723$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.45 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 77c | 686.73$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.7 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked No | 79c | 666.45$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.52 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 71c | 661.17$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.74 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x18db…6347backed No | 67c | 653.66$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9041…cee2backed Yes | 16c | 638.06$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 3c | 577.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 19c | 562.48$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.1 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1a…d9abbacked Yes | 31c | 520.59$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8886…3913backed Yes | 4c | 518.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 6c | 505.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6d…b3febacked Yes | 4c | 504.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 43 | 4.7%2 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 10c | 499.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 29c | 499.98$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.99 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe005…14fdbacked No | 75c | 481.52$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.38 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd2…1f27backed Yes | 32c | 472.37$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.93 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed Yes | 27c | 464.43$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.11 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +8.0wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 12c | 464.14$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.58 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa323…2778backed No | 74c | 449.63$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x467c…b348backed No | 76c | 440.92$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.25 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 28c | 433.79$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.19 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -89.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79ec…c5a2backed No | 80c | 419.06$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 21c | 408.55$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.37 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed No | 78c | 400$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +44%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa899…f68dbacked Yes | 26c | 397.96$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.16 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed Yes | 23c | 390.52$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 3c | 354.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 48 | 6.3%3 W · 45 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x593b…b608backed Yes | 19c | 330$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 78c | 324.38$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.45 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x578f…f112backed No | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Yes | 19c | 299.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fa…77b5backed No | 69c | 299.99$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 73c | 292.48$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.97 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 24c | 290.7$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.24 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x749f…9501backed Yes | 16c | 280$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed Yes | 31c | 279.17$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ef…3655backed No | 80c | 266.1$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.35 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa40a…0615backed No | 75c | 265.45$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.45 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…a25ebacked Yes | 38c | 264.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc83…4edfbacked Yes | 38c | 261.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1206…eaeebacked Yes | 5c | 251.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 28c | 250$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 25c | 239.48$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd099…ada2backed No | 80c | 236$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfec9…1f25backed No | 71c | 234.35$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8330…b88fbacked No | 74c | 223$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.98 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4703…ce7fbacked Yes | 28c | 220.91$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Yes | 24c | 210.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +89.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0060…4cc4backed Yes | 28c | 209.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x854c…a964backed Yes | 25c | 204.91$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e3…67dcbacked No | 80c | 202$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…0220backed No | 74c | 200.19$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.24 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x332e…fd5dbacked No | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d01…d68ebacked Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d12…bdf6backed Yes | 38c | 196.4$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.01 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa772…b18cbacked Yes | 45c | 182.5$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x768b…de48backed No | 75c | 174.13$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x624e…b1a5backed Yes | 29c | 173.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d7…1b55backed No | 79c | 169.84$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa79f…53b7backed Yes | 25c | 169.68$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +276%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d69…0354backed Yes | 21c | 166$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0b…e18dbacked No | 79c | 153.56$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grok 4.20 released by December 31?this page
- Grok 4.20 released by February 14?No won
- Grok 4.20 released by February 28?Yes won
- Grok 4.20 released by January 15?No won
- Grok 4.20 released by January 31?No won
- Grok 4.20 released by January 9?No won
- Grok 4.20 released by March 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.