Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c303e0a3ab6da4af7aed1862434a0fe98c11b69248fece132908f5e2eecfd87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $327,103
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $297,751
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $327,103 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 310 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f6d…b4c7backed Yes | 27c | 30,221$8,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,031.85 | 124 | 29.8%37 W · 87 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 27c | 27,162$7,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,441.1 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91d0…a256backed No | 78c | 15,000$11,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,300 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 21c | 11,171$2,328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,328.1 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5331…69d8backed No | 77c | 7,300$5,621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,679 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +132.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3841…cd5cbacked Yes | 1c | 6,200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 6cpaid | +314.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 34c | 5,813$1,977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,977.17 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 64c | 5,387$3,461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,925.89 | 169 | 69.2%117 W · 52 L | +17.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +13%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4501…744cbacked Yes | 41c | 5,311$2,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,166.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc08b…5226backed Yes | 22c | 5,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4942…2274backed Yes | 22c | 5,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf977…4f9abacked Yes | 22c | 5,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeceb…8d0dbacked No | 71c | 4,912$3,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,412.03 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb728…e183backed No | 75c | 4,449$3,349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,099.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed Yes | 5c | 3,590$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.61 | 202 | 26.7%54 W · 148 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf56b…f7c6backed Yes | 40c | 3,502$1,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,416.29 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 13c | 3,479$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.5 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed No | 72c | 3,412$2,467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$945.27 | 174 | 19%33 W · 141 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…4c60backed No | 67c | 3,379$2,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,115.06 | 87 | 42.5%37 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 30c | 3,284$981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980.76 | 112 | 8%9 W · 103 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -80%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36e7…0b6bbacked No | 65c | 2,435$1,587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$847.41 | 248 | 73%181 W · 67 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb831…f31cbacked Yes | 35c | 2,414$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.05 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…57b2backed Yes | 5c | 2,300$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.1 | 84 | 9.5%8 W · 76 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | +105%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 67c | 2,299$1,551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.35 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 69c | 2,286$1,583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702.5 | 80 | 31.3%25 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Yes | 34c | 2,109$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.67 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +43%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 47c | 2,099$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988.02 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes | 29c | 2,061$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.34 | 146 | 25.3%37 W · 109 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 21c | 2,000$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.5 | 238 | 19.3%46 W · 192 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391f…cf8dbacked Yes | 21c | 1,941$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.6 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | -5.3wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbd…f10dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,904$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.65 | 62 | 12.9%8 W · 54 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8930…393bbacked Yes | 33c | 1,824$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.33 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d1…a249backed Yes | 2c | 1,720$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +5.6wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b69…16d4backed Yes | 34c | 1,718$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.97 | 223 | 27.8%62 W · 161 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 36c | 1,704$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.31 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…dcdebacked No | 76c | 1,704$1,301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.07 | 212 | 22.2%47 W · 165 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab78…e3afbacked Yes | 30c | 1,692$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.19 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,673$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.37 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…ff45backed Yes | 30c | 1,666$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.8 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +116.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cd…432cbacked Yes | 22c | 1,601$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.67 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7354…430fbacked No | 62c | 1,600$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.99 | 188 | 77.1%145 W · 43 L | +12.3wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 29c | 1,456$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.16 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 24c | 1,445$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.8 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…e1e1backed Yes | 24c | 1,412$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.18 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Yes | 37c | 1,369$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.58 | 233 | 21%49 W · 184 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa905…fcf1backed No | 69c | 1,288$886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc168…5024backed Yes | 33c | 1,265$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.29 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe155…45afbacked Yes | 31c | 1,222$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 209 | 24.9%52 W · 157 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee0…41bfbacked Yes | 30c | 1,179$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.44 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 30cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb7…1e0dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,093$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.71 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…3c35backed Yes | 28c | 1,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 33c | 1,000$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.52 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 67c | 999.99$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.64 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38b3…1e06backed Yes | 23c | 999.99$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 212 | 15.1%32 W · 180 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7c…fac2backed Yes | 41c | 999.98$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda1d…6192backed Yes | 45c | 996.87$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 13c | 993$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.2 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88d4…ffb3backed Yes | 44c | 978.7$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.26 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +126.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 62c | 938.66$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.02 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0489…ddf7backed Yes | 32c | 935$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.25 | 199 | 27.6%55 W · 144 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf89…a739backed Yes | 33c | 926$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.96 | 107 | 15.9%17 W · 90 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59b8…26b2backed Yes | 30c | 900$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b04…6632backed No | 71c | 878.41$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.17 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +72%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…4362backed Yes | 28c | 874$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.72 | 90 | 15.6%14 W · 76 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7045…133ebacked Yes | 30c | 827.49$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 25c | 809.99$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7402…6a0cbacked Yes | 29c | 800$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd921…737bbacked Yes | 6c | 776.69$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 25c | 775.17$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcea5…0750backed Yes | 19c | 757.13$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.21 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e0…c5d3backed Yes | 26c | 750$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedda…2e39backed Yes | 28c | 727.09$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes | 25c | 700$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 416 | 10.6%44 W · 372 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Yes | 8c | 700$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 73c | 699.95$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.99 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…8808backed Yes | 35c | 695.21$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed No | 67c | 690$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.7 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…7518backed No | 74c | 672.64$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.64 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked No | 69c | 583.98$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.35 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…5964backed Yes | 34c | 582.8$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x804c…1658backed Yes | 32c | 574$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.04 | 103 | 21.4%22 W · 81 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bee…5628backed Yes | 42c | 556.99$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.56 | 97 | 16.5%16 W · 81 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbc…18a0backed Yes | 37c | 543.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 73c | 521.29$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139 | 315 | 65.1%205 W · 110 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb392…0b80backed Yes | 27c | 513.77$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.83 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b69…49dabacked Yes | 11c | 512.64$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.9 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 29c | 500$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked No | 70c | 499.99$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdf…dd93backed Yes | 21c | 499.98$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes | 29c | 499.96$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.63 | 212 | 11.8%25 W · 187 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x477b…7b63backed Yes | 38c | 495.22$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.18 | 98 | 28.6%28 W · 70 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…fba5backed No | 63c | 491.26$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…a26fbacked No | 72c | 471.16$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6d…2b09backed No | 66c | 468.24$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.81 | 250 | 23.2%58 W · 192 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa9…c8e8backed Yes | 26c | 466.17$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.56 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x871e…6566backed No | 59c | 460$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.6 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 34c | 435.85$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.18 | 526 | 19.8%104 W · 422 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d3…8e8fbacked Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 131 | 16.8%22 W · 109 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 68c | 429.44$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.34 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.