Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f66c94f4b640bd3b97517ed66fc3424a486927c8a55a3c23031838f052a702c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $403,391
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $280,335
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $403,391 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes | 4c | 44,877$2,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,014.9 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 9c | 25,341$2,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,219.23 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 7c | 19,245$1,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,273.79 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 1c | 11,051$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.74 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 9c | 10,901$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.4 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42b3…25babacked Yes | 4c | 9,214$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.01 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 2c | 8,443$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.37 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 8,361$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.12 | 434 | 5.1%22 W · 412 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 7,790$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.25 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 4c | 7,787$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.17 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 2c | 6,486$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.19 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 5c | 6,146$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.2 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac28…0d06backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 93 | 7.5%7 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 5c | 4,926$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.63 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 1c | 4,004$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.92 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab78…e3afbacked Yes | 3c | 3,696$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.58 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 4c | 3,390$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.81 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 3c | 3,243$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.71 | 112 | 8%9 W · 103 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -80%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…6bd7backed Yes | 5c | 2,749$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.93 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 4c | 2,679$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.52 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe931…ea02backed Yes | 4c | 2,343$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 28cpaid | +132.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 6c | 2,273$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.57 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,250$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 238 | 19.3%46 W · 192 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 5c | 2,236$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.66 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb831…f31cbacked Yes | 9c | 2,083$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1c…aebebacked Yes | 7c | 2,036$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.82 | 131 | 21.4%28 W · 103 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 10c | 2,000$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.98 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa553…3c98backed Yes | 5c | 1,983$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.26 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe553…e95dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,875$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 7c | 1,617$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.57 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92d3…17adbacked Yes | 6c | 1,560$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Yes | 6c | 1,549$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.95 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc168…5024backed Yes | 3c | 1,501$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.03 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4978…956bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,402$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 479 | 8.6%41 W · 438 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3147…61bdbacked Yes | 3c | 1,355$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.89 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Yes | 5c | 1,211$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.74 | 233 | 21%49 W · 184 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcea5…0750backed Yes | 5c | 1,199$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.56 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff0…20b6backed Yes | 4c | 1,186$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5898…3dd9backed Yes | 5c | 1,184$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.15 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -27%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3a…1550backed Yes | 4c | 1,100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 2c | 1,096$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 1,068$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.68 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,038$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 198 | 19.7%39 W · 159 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe155…45afbacked Yes | 3c | 1,020$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 209 | 24.9%52 W · 157 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 2c | 1,010$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47ff…3cc4backed Yes | 4c | 1,003$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 146 | 25.3%37 W · 109 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 562 | 8.9%50 W · 512 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 2c | 970.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Yes | 8c | 966.39$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.64 | 80 | 31.3%25 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b69…16d4backed Yes | 8c | 906.23$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.7 | 223 | 27.8%62 W · 161 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 5c | 830.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.79 | 259 | 5.4%14 W · 245 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06d6…1bb8backed Yes | 5c | 829.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.85 | 61 | 18%11 W · 50 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 824.74$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.75 | 491 | 6.7%33 W · 458 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7680…d558backed Yes | 9c | 814.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 5c | 799.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 211 | 4.7%10 W · 201 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x915b…2729backed Yes | 5c | 781.14$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 122 | 18.9%23 W · 99 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x804c…1658backed Yes | 9c | 779.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.32 | 103 | 21.4%22 W · 81 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…8669backed Yes | 5c | 745.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 126 | 16.7%21 W · 105 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9804…d512backed Yes | 8c | 700$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.3 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x986e…88d7backed Yes | 6c | 699.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 108 | 11.1%12 W · 96 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 668.83$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 691 | 5.5%38 W · 653 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…4f3dbacked Yes | 6c | 664.59$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3c…2ce1backed Yes | 3c | 638.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed Yes | 5c | 586.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x552c…be63backed Yes | 6c | 567.61$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 143 | 14%20 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bee…5628backed Yes | 5c | 553.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 97 | 16.5%16 W · 81 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 5c | 539$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35bc…8180backed Yes | 3c | 538.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf89…a739backed Yes | 4c | 536$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 107 | 15.9%17 W · 90 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad3b…1385backed Yes | 8c | 530.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 10cpaid | +226.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee35…6c20backed Yes | 5c | 525.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ea…6bbcbacked Yes | 9c | 504.23$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2379…178ebacked Yes | 4c | 499.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e06…66febacked Yes | 8c | 484.89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca3f…0f89backed Yes | 9c | 473.66$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 79 | 16.5%13 W · 66 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa70e…b5eabacked Yes | 8c | 456.96$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd0…30f4backed Yes | 10c | 446.55$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.06 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe73…1c5fbacked Yes | 3c | 440.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b2…a32abacked Yes | 5c | 439.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae5c…1216backed Yes | 5c | 437.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 4c | 424.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 398 | 6.8%27 W · 371 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5f…b380backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 430 | 27%116 W · 314 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94f4…ea54backed Yes | 4c | 398.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes | 13c | 393.72$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.51 | 97 | 40.2%39 W · 58 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8114…085abacked Yes | 6c | 393.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 127 | 14.2%18 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c7…2371backed Yes | 3c | 388.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 7c | 349.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbebb…28b8backed Yes | 5c | 340$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 67 | 22.4%15 W · 52 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 8c | 333.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69d3…51c2backed Yes | 6c | 314.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad2…e985backed Yes | 5c | 312.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 148 | 8.8%13 W · 135 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes | 8c | 309.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 416 | 10.6%44 W · 372 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 5c | 309.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6e…d673backed Yes | 7c | 303.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05f3…d210backed Yes | 7c | 302.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x899c…d868backed Yes | 7c | 300.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e5…ffcebacked Yes | 9c | 299.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90db…b7aebacked Yes | 7c | 291.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…075ebacked Yes | 7c | 268.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.