Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0da79b8dd062be822a4c83c93edf29104859e119f2b4ec33adfb05196cea998
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $375,667
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $317,846
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $375,667 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 227 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 1c | 53,983$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.77 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 7c | 19,075$1,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,403.56 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Yes | 0c | 17,500$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed Yes | 0c | 14,098$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 202 | 26.7%54 W · 148 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…b4c7backed Yes | 4c | 11,937$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.55 | 124 | 29.8%37 W · 87 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 1c | 9,911$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.93 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 6c | 7,092$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.63 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17fd…976fbacked No | 60c | 6,100$3,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,440 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd69c…3df2backed Yes | 40c | 6,100$2,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,440 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x018e…c9d6backed No | 60c | 6,066$3,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,426.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…9fcabacked Yes | 40c | 6,066$2,426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,426.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 4c | 5,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391f…cf8dbacked Yes | 2c | 4,649$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.59 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | -5.3wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb7…1e0dbacked Yes | 11c | 4,562$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.98 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7045…133ebacked Yes | 7c | 4,254$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8519…cb6cbacked Yes | 0c | 4,227$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb831…f31cbacked Yes | 25c | 4,181$1,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,047.06 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5421…f713backed No | 74c | 4,163$3,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,099.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 0c | 4,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf56b…f7c6backed Yes | 39c | 3,873$1,503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,503.44 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 24c | 3,780$895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$895.1 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…57b2backed Yes | 0c | 2,998$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 84 | 9.5%8 W · 76 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | +105%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa85…bcbdbacked No | 75c | 2,994$2,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8404…092fbacked No | 77c | 2,991$2,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 2,974$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.49 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac28…0d06backed Yes | 4c | 2,859$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.46 | 93 | 7.5%7 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 8c | 2,407$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.42 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 19c | 2,109$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.14 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f3…7e7fbacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.9 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6151…9848backed Yes | 16c | 1,900$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.99 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +77.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,894$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.39 | 434 | 5.1%22 W · 412 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,800$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 212 | 20.3%43 W · 169 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +610.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…e1e1backed Yes | 17c | 1,782$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.54 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,706$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.16 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7402…6a0cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,700$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 15c | 1,676$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.35 | 112 | 8%9 W · 103 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -80%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 9c | 1,500$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.5 | 238 | 19.3%46 W · 192 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…4362backed Yes | 28c | 1,462$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.65 | 90 | 15.6%14 W · 76 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 2c | 1,437$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcea5…0750backed Yes | 20c | 1,426$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.49 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cd…432cbacked Yes | 25c | 1,230$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.29 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes | 23c | 1,215$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.67 | 146 | 25.3%37 W · 109 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 75c | 1,152$863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.49 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 16c | 1,128$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.88 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 4c | 1,110$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.64 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc168…5024backed Yes | 24c | 1,100$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.4 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda1d…6192backed Yes | 43c | 1,053$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…8312backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab78…e3afbacked Yes | 28c | 999.99$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.3 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d1…a249backed Yes | 4c | 930$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +5.6wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf89…a739backed Yes | 12c | 926$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.52 | 107 | 15.9%17 W · 90 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes | 22c | 919.99$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.9 | 250 | 23.2%58 W · 192 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 2c | 911.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x804c…1658backed Yes | 13c | 871.99$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.25 | 103 | 21.4%22 W · 81 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8032…7c6cbacked Yes | 11c | 813.98$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 243 | 26.7%65 W · 178 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3c…2ce1backed Yes | 5c | 777.7$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.22 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 25c | 771.07$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.46 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34a6…558bbacked Yes | 22c | 703.18$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.7 | 181 | 23.8%43 W · 138 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes | 25c | 699.9$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.44 | 416 | 10.6%44 W · 372 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 29c | 656.65$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.29 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 623.52$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.85 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31f2…558dbacked Yes | 33c | 611.84$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes | 22c | 607$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.58 | 97 | 40.2%39 W · 58 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b69…16d4backed Yes | 34c | 586.08$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 223 | 27.8%62 W · 161 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee0…41bfbacked Yes | 26c | 562.42$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.44 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 30cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe599…0dd3backed Yes | 7c | 559.79$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.38 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 6c | 549.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0442…c517backed Yes | 4c | 543.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 91 | 35.2%32 W · 59 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb392…0b80backed Yes | 28c | 500$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb0…27f8backed Yes | 8c | 499.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 116 | 18.1%21 W · 95 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 3c | 499.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked No | 73c | 499.99$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 562 | 8.9%50 W · 512 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Yes | 20c | 494.1$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.94 | 233 | 21%49 W · 184 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Yes | 28c | 452.8$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 66c | 441.78$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.22 | 315 | 65.1%205 W · 110 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad9f…9971backed Yes | 6c | 430$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 352 | 12.8%45 W · 307 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes | 28c | 428.5$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.96 | 212 | 11.8%25 W · 187 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfb…64c1backed Yes | 7c | 412.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1005…a843backed Yes | 25c | 405.54$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.39 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedda…2e39backed Yes | 6c | 399.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…bfcabacked Yes | 10c | 394.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 137 | 17.5%24 W · 113 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6435…eed9backed Yes | 24c | 385.71$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 13c | 378.77$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.42 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42f9…5d7abacked Yes | 28c | 362.69$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.55 | 96 | 20.8%20 W · 76 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa47f…cf75backed Yes | 21c | 362.31$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.93 | 149 | 24.2%36 W · 113 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…3559backed Yes | 23c | 360.45$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.9 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdf…dd93backed Yes | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc75…a085backed No | 69c | 338.72$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.73 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbef7…0b4dbacked Yes | 9c | 334.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe155…45afbacked Yes | 30c | 332.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 209 | 24.9%52 W · 157 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd577…44d8backed Yes | 35c | 327.91$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.33 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1e…0f8abacked Yes | 5c | 324.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0612…bf7bbacked Yes | 31c | 323.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed Yes | 29c | 317.73$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.38 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…e737backed Yes | 31c | 313.42$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.99 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 24c | 304.98$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.59 | 526 | 19.8%104 W · 422 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5830…f928backed Yes | 12c | 300.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.09 | 166 | 11.4%19 W · 147 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3a…1550backed Yes | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.