Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4fb17b6b6c8f8b2df77762163dbd4a08fc26ce044762e33b0caf13e1ed3615e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $232,819
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $141,709
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $232,819 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 1c | 55,889$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.35 | 1,780 | 7.4%132 W · 1,648 L | -23.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb7…1e0dbacked Yes | 1c | 19,155$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.17 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 0c | 6,806$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.12 | 1,060 | 8.4%89 W · 971 L | +29.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 5,083$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.26 | 2,160 | 3.9%85 W · 2,075 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab78…e3afbacked Yes | 3c | 3,531$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.98 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 2c | 3,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 2c | 3,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff0…20b6backed Yes | 1c | 2,619$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5830…f928backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 166 | 11.4%19 W · 147 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 3c | 2,481$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.98 | 112 | 8%9 W · 103 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -80%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb831…f31cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,850$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391f…cf8dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,472$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | -5.3wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d1…a249backed Yes | 1c | 1,440$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +5.6wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 10c | 1,424$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.96 | 562 | 8.9%50 W · 512 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 8c | 1,319$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.44 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 9c | 1,265$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 4c | 1,156$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.03 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe73…1c5fbacked Yes | 14c | 1,139$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf89…a739backed Yes | 1c | 926$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 107 | 15.9%17 W · 90 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcea5…0750backed Yes | 11c | 829.38$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.65 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 8c | 824.23$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.59 | 259 | 5.4%14 W · 245 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 10c | 732.63$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.01 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 8c | 729.53$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.22 | 211 | 4.7%10 W · 201 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes | 9c | 699.97$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 146 | 25.3%37 W · 109 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac28…0d06backed Yes | 2c | 692.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 93 | 7.5%7 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 9c | 633.63$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.03 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa9…c8e8backed Yes | 5c | 599.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6aad…3a85backed Yes | 12c | 574.32$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.92 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes | 6c | 500$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 413 | 10.7%44 W · 369 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…0232backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -61%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 3c | 499.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b27…7bfdbacked Yes | 10c | 443.5$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.61 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 7c | 413.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 491 | 6.7%33 W · 458 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 412.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 434 | 5.1%22 W · 412 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x804c…1658backed Yes | 6c | 400$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 103 | 21.4%22 W · 81 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b9…25dfbacked Yes | 13c | 397.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 7c | 391.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 691 | 5.5%38 W · 653 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x799e…2d5cbacked Yes | 10c | 387.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd365…d5d7backed Yes | 6c | 377.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 7cpaid | +193.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe155…45afbacked Yes | 9c | 375.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 209 | 24.9%52 W · 157 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc02…1061backed Yes | 14c | 366.56$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 5c | 350$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,040 | 13.7%142 W · 898 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes | 11c | 326.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 97 | 40.2%39 W · 58 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x986e…88d7backed Yes | 11c | 321.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 108 | 11.1%12 W · 96 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 212 | 11.8%25 W · 187 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…bd41backed Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 161 | 19.9%32 W · 129 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad2…e985backed Yes | 8c | 278.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 148 | 8.8%13 W · 135 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58cd…775abacked Yes | 10c | 245.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 386 | 14.2%55 W · 331 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb065…7effbacked Yes | 16c | 225.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 11c | 223.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce7…04eebacked Yes | 11c | 204.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedda…2e39backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6faa…787bbacked Yes | 13c | 199.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 10c | 175.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3147…61bdbacked Yes | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x560b…5bf9backed Yes | 10c | 156.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae5c…1216backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5898…3dd9backed Yes | 11c | 148.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -27%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c0…eb7abacked Yes | 9c | 139.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72b8…6253backed Yes | 11c | 131.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 231 | 16.9%39 W · 192 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5839…3d9fbacked Yes | 9c | 129.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c03…d9bcbacked Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…5692backed Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76c0…7cecbacked Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb1…17d7backed Yes | 16c | 101.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d6…e6d7backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 68 | 5.9%4 W · 64 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x454d…00e2backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ef…e04fbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc168…5024backed Yes | 11c | 99.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.