Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x039f778c7a0cdb2b44867bdc3e370332165a73507fb37ecd67dcc75a79cb1e63
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $396,104
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $442,255
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $396,104 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 325 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 68c | 30,180$20,627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,552.21 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 56c | 15,710$8,735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,975.54 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 63c | 10,566$6,706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,859.94 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 31c | 8,317$2,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,561.06 | 169 | 69.2%117 W · 52 L | +17.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +13%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 19c | 7,940$1,533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,407.9 | 1,780 | 7.4%132 W · 1,648 L | -23.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 59c | 7,424$4,407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,016.96 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc295…dde9backed No | 30c | 6,706$1,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,994.86 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…b4c7backed Yes | 12c | 6,113$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,368.37 | 124 | 29.8%37 W · 87 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed No | 7c | 5,252$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.48 | 202 | 26.7%54 W · 148 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 11c | 5,227$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,673.52 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e0…c5d3backed No | 50c | 5,160$2,567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,566.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 49c | 3,796$1,842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,954.04 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 56c | 3,481$1,949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,531.94 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…8808backed Yes | 71c | 3,461$2,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,005.89 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 15c | 3,355$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,864.95 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f3…3a31backed Yes | 63c | 3,193$2,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,179.56 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b6…fa87backed No | 77c | 2,998$2,308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,308.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8974…bedebacked Yes | 65c | 2,975$1,947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,027.44 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +42%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 68c | 2,934$2,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$932.64 | 230 | 19.1%44 W · 186 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf56b…f7c6backed Yes | 9c | 2,899$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,629.84 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked No | 41c | 2,814$1,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,160.6 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Yes | 45c | 2,474$1,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,367.32 | 233 | 21%49 W · 184 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 65c | 2,400$1,571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.26 | 563 | 29.8%168 W · 395 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 58c | 2,322$1,358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$964.55 | 84 | 23.8%20 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes | 15c | 2,040$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,736.8 | 146 | 25.3%37 W · 109 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 8c | 1,999$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,836.23 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde00…24a1backed Yes | 73c | 1,943$1,416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.86 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 48c | 1,905$916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$915.89 | 112 | 8%9 W · 103 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -80%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 13c | 1,758$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,536.19 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 9c | 1,698$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,537.44 | 1,040 | 13.7%142 W · 898 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca3f…0f89backed Yes | 75c | 1,616$1,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.22 | 79 | 16.5%13 W · 66 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf667…2abcbacked Yes | 24c | 1,584$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,204.11 | 126 | 19%24 W · 102 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 64c | 1,437$924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.93 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 14c | 1,392$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,196.42 | 562 | 8.9%50 W · 512 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 14c | 1,376$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,181.73 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3538…c269backed Yes | 76c | 1,316$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.22 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3a…1550backed Yes | 10c | 1,200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,082 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 60c | 1,165$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.52 | 439 | 33%145 W · 294 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34ad…a1a1backed Yes | 18c | 1,149$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$937.02 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 16c | 1,122$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$938.01 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc168…5024backed Yes | 22c | 1,100$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$861.02 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 28c | 1,077$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.5 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88d4…ffb3backed Yes | 37c | 1,075$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.98 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +126.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 1,036$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$912.91 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 1,033$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.01 | 2,160 | 3.9%85 W · 2,075 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4501…744cbacked Yes | 61c | 1,026$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked No | 20c | 1,016$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.91 | 93 | 21.5%20 W · 73 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…55cabacked Yes | 68c | 1,010$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.74 | 117 | 30.8%36 W · 81 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59b8…26b2backed No | 26c | 1,000$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 18c | 1,000$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.6 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2379…178ebacked Yes | 8c | 999.97$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$919.97 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 8c | 987.25$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$906.75 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7045…133ebacked Yes | 23c | 983.11$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$754.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55bf…9ee3backed Yes | 26c | 953$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703 | 85 | 27.1%23 W · 62 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Yes | 47c | 930.11$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.01 | 80 | 31.3%25 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf89…a739backed Yes | 47c | 926$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.99 | 107 | 15.9%17 W · 90 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe931…ea02backed Yes | 22c | 919.5$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 28cpaid | +132.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9804…d512backed Yes | 12c | 874.75$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.78 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92d3…17adbacked Yes | 17c | 869.15$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.15 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b3…25babacked Yes | 13c | 865.22$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.28 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1c…aebebacked Yes | 55c | 848.82$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.37 | 131 | 21.4%28 W · 103 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 79c | 847.65$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.57 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8032…7c6cbacked Yes | 16c | 822.95$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.95 | 243 | 26.7%65 W · 178 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7402…6a0cbacked No | 24c | 800$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee0…41bfbacked Yes | 16c | 790.67$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.72 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 30cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x172e…34d5backed Yes | 46c | 773.75$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 29cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde03…e629backed Yes | 57c | 760.1$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.66 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab78…e3afbacked Yes | 19c | 756.66$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.01 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x804c…1658backed Yes | 34c | 750$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.05 | 103 | 21.4%22 W · 81 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 9c | 737.46$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.09 | 211 | 4.7%10 W · 201 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02d…aef8backed Yes | 67c | 709.39$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.1 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +123.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90db…b7aebacked Yes | 17c | 707.31$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes | 14c | 700$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604 | 413 | 10.7%44 W · 369 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcea5…0750backed Yes | 10c | 699.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.28 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d56…0ba5backed Yes | 9c | 699.97$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +970.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d3…8e8fbacked Yes | 15c | 669.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.4 | 131 | 16.8%22 W · 109 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73ed…2574backed Yes | 76c | 654.74$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.74 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 43c | 650$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.5 | 238 | 19.3%46 W · 192 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 61c | 630.93$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.18 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 46c | 625.91$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.02 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes | 57c | 613.04$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.61 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25f3…0a98backed Yes | 12c | 582.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.04 | 124 | 16.1%20 W · 104 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8630…91c9backed Yes | 14c | 572.99$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.25 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…6bd7backed Yes | 7c | 563.38$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.11 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bee…5628backed Yes | 19c | 559.48$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.5 | 97 | 16.5%16 W · 81 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2616…8d3cbacked Yes | 76c | 544.96$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.49 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa894…5184backed Yes | 56c | 524.4$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.51 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 25c | 517.57$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.89 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe553…e95dbacked Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7703…5596backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +170.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38b3…1e06backed Yes | 65c | 500$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 212 | 15.1%32 W · 180 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c4…8129backed No | 46c | 499.99$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -16.1wins | -0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0236…fe9fbacked Yes | 15c | 489.83$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.72 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Yes | 14c | 480.55$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.87 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +43%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 11c | 479$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.65 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e5…ffcebacked Yes | 39c | 438.35$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.01 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad3b…1385backed Yes | 14c | 431.02$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.73 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 10cpaid | +226.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7680…d558backed Yes | 42c | 426.65$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.56 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 17c | 425.58$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.47 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5898…3dd9backed Yes | 12c | 416.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.25 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -27%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.