Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaaa03ef5a92c0b6566f2236408620a146b4c56f78eca563dc1a58327f4e3745c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $433,697
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $477,888
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $433,697 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 360 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 72c | 32,670$23,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,180.6 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 45c | 6,567$2,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,950.27 | 169 | 69.2%117 W · 52 L | +17.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +13%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 4,805$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.32 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 48c | 4,500$2,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,181.19 | 234 | 64.5%151 W · 83 L | +23.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 9c | 4,408$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,011.21 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…8808backed Yes | 49c | 3,797$1,858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,939.69 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed No | 21c | 3,676$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.84 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 24c | 3,612$876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,735.7 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…b4c7backed Yes | 77c | 3,596$2,761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$834.67 | 124 | 29.8%37 W · 87 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 64c | 3,583$2,306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,277.41 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…4c60backed No | 76c | 3,181$2,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,411.4 | 87 | 42.5%37 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf56b…f7c6backed Yes | 26c | 3,032$801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,230.96 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 50c | 2,203$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.7 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 58c | 2,117$1,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$894.47 | 238 | 19.3%46 W · 192 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 2,087$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,584.27 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x172e…34d5backed Yes | 23c | 1,954$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,506.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 29cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 28c | 1,950$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,413.1 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7354…430fbacked No | 39c | 1,913$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.12 | 188 | 77.1%145 W · 43 L | +12.3wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes | 23c | 1,821$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,394.46 | 125 | 28%35 W · 90 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f8…98e1backed No | 6c | 1,808$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.11 | 218 | 18.3%40 W · 178 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x002f…6a4ebacked Yes | 71c | 1,802$1,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.72 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf667…2abcbacked Yes | 29c | 1,795$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,277.94 | 126 | 19%24 W · 102 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 12c | 1,587$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,401.26 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 37c | 1,492$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$943.77 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d9…be50backed No | 29c | 1,455$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.71 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes | 25c | 1,415$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,055.28 | 146 | 25.3%37 W · 109 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc201…eeb2backed Yes | 48c | 1,382$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.2 | 133 | 13.5%18 W · 115 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 11c | 1,378$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.17 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a0…36aabacked Yes | 22c | 1,359$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,058.78 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 21c | 1,336$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.12 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc1…6ad6backed No | 26c | 1,308$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.34 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 11c | 1,290$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,152.59 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked No | 22c | 1,285$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.21 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd19…57d2backed Yes | 45c | 1,271$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693.07 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf885…37e8backed Yes | 65c | 1,236$798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.47 | 77 | 16.9%13 W · 64 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes | 22c | 1,230$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$958.69 | 416 | 10.6%44 W · 372 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cd…432cbacked Yes | 25c | 1,200$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x226a…6411backed Yes | 13c | 1,159$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,008.01 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed Yes | 77c | 1,093$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.49 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes | 29c | 1,072$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.18 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…54b3backed Yes | 19c | 1,058$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$858.01 | 70 | 25.7%18 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…0a3cbacked Yes | 37c | 1,030$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.86 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…e6e3backed Yes | 28c | 1,018$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734.17 | 154 | 13%20 W · 134 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e8…db25backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5331…69d8backed No | 73c | 1,000$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +132.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8974…bedebacked No | 10c | 1,000$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +42%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf640…bc3ebacked Yes | 80c | 1,000$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.3 | 105 | 23.8%25 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38b3…1e06backed Yes | 28c | 1,000$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720 | 212 | 15.1%32 W · 180 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3506…a7ecbacked Yes | 23c | 999.98$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.98 | 112 | 8.9%10 W · 102 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed Yes | 35c | 988.78$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.34 | 202 | 26.7%54 W · 148 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 76c | 978.31$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.21 | 195 | 50.3%98 W · 97 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x804c…1658backed Yes | 37c | 960.51$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.74 | 103 | 21.4%22 W · 81 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb79f…d749backed No | 1c | 955.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked No | 47c | 950$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.25 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 79c | 947.51$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.73 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 24c | 941.94$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.32 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad4a…ddb8backed No | 61c | 933.92$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.84 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 25c | 931.75$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700.93 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d44…7ba3backed Yes | 28c | 923.46$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.22 | 57 | 14%8 W · 49 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99fd…9028backed Yes | 72c | 900.21$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.75 | 121 | 12.4%15 W · 106 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c0…c100backed Yes | 38c | 879$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.51 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Yes | 32c | 865.99$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.66 | 233 | 21%49 W · 184 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7db5…cf18backed Yes | 70c | 850$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.5 | 886 | 10.3%91 W · 795 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 42c | 842.64$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.19 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c6c…0ed3backed Yes | 26c | 841.78$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d8…fbc5backed Yes | 14c | 822.36$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.47 | 90 | 12.2%11 W · 79 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -42%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe553…e95dbacked Yes | 26c | 808.16$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.16 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 52c | 791$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.92 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 42c | 788.01$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.01 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf721…7778backed No | 76c | 780.92$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.54 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b69…16d4backed Yes | 39c | 773.64$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.08 | 223 | 27.8%62 W · 161 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96ca…5a71backed Yes | 14c | 717.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.21 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe199…4a01backed Yes | 36c | 709.71$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.33 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc168…5024backed Yes | 27c | 699.99$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.99 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02d…aef8backed No | 72c | 689.79$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +123.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 33c | 665.59$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.99 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd396…0d42backed Yes | 26c | 665.15$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.16 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…77d1backed Yes | 53c | 644.1$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.71 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c85…410dbacked Yes | 62c | 628.24$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.87 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55bf…9ee3backed Yes | 25c | 606.01$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.01 | 85 | 27.1%23 W · 62 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…e492backed Yes | 11c | 600$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.2 | 179 | 24.6%44 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x986e…88d7backed Yes | 19c | 599.99$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.99 | 108 | 11.1%12 W · 96 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27c8…2257backed Yes | 34c | 560$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 77c | 553.71$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.85 | 315 | 65.1%205 W · 110 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33a…1e9fbacked No | 22c | 545.13$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.58 | 99 | 26.3%26 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe754…9baabacked No | 74c | 535.64$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe28f…be21backed Yes | 18c | 521.29$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.29 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e66…0d3abacked Yes | 25c | 510.02$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.02 | 334 | 15.6%52 W · 282 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac28…0d06backed Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 93 | 7.5%7 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed No | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…4362backed Yes | 26c | 500$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368 | 90 | 15.6%14 W · 76 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94f4…ea54backed Yes | 54c | 491.69$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.83 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x677f…c336backed No | 76c | 469.38$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1c…aebebacked Yes | 40c | 461.43$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.29 | 131 | 21.4%28 W · 103 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b3…25babacked Yes | 34c | 460$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.7 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5199…4d5fbacked Yes | 44c | 459.03$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.55 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c4…8129backed No | 16c | 449.81$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.39 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -16.1wins | -0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 32c | 412.84$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.22 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67bf…b296backed Yes | 76c | 412.81$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.7 | 360 | 18.9%68 W · 292 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04f5…a10ebacked Yes | 15c | 410$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.8 | 77 | 11.7%9 W · 68 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.