Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa0db549b480b0cf3b1b90cccf1a452867071de9f5e8a46577fc723026c5e39e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $266,025
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $178,953
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $266,025 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x42b3…25babacked Yes | 2c | 15,581$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.95 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 2c | 14,946$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.81 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes | 10c | 13,000$1,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,273.67 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 0c | 11,061$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.76 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 2c | 9,540$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.49 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…b4c7backed Yes | 3c | 8,507$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.82 | 124 | 29.8%37 W · 87 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 4,322$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.7 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 1c | 4,014$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8032…7c6cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,798$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 243 | 26.7%65 W · 178 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x927d…74bdbacked Yes | 3c | 3,245$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 2c | 3,077$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.49 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 1c | 2,807$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.09 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 2,724$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 2,684$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.35 | 434 | 5.1%22 W · 412 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…6f10backed Yes | 7c | 2,528$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.04 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d4…2ba1backed Yes | 8c | 2,128$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20a6…ad1bbacked Yes | 3c | 2,099$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.81 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5898…3dd9backed Yes | 4c | 2,095$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.85 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -27%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes | 1c | 2,071$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 218 | 18.3%40 W · 178 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47ff…3cc4backed Yes | 2c | 2,001$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 4c | 1,974$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.59 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf667…2abcbacked Yes | 2c | 1,969$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.13 | 126 | 19%24 W · 102 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 1,964$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 491 | 6.7%33 W · 458 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 1c | 1,959$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa54e…7326backed Yes | 5c | 1,837$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4978…956bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,837$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 479 | 8.6%41 W · 438 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95b6…6194backed Yes | 2c | 1,821$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes | 3c | 1,784$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.35 | 125 | 28%35 W · 90 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…0775backed Yes | 4c | 1,739$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.13 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,701$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 259 | 5.4%14 W · 245 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c8…56e4backed Yes | 3c | 1,686$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4328…2cd2backed Yes | 2c | 1,676$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Yes | 9c | 1,591$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.19 | 54 | 16.7%9 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,591$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes | 4c | 1,493$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.66 | 146 | 25.3%37 W · 109 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 1c | 1,373$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 691 | 5.5%38 W · 653 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb3…16e7backed Yes | 2c | 1,289$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 119 | 18.5%22 W · 97 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…2c48backed Yes | 1c | 1,208$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 97 | 7.2%7 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 1c | 1,197$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 211 | 4.7%10 W · 201 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes | 6c | 1,134$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 384 | 4.7%18 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc8…fc00backed Yes | 4c | 1,124$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c0…c100backed Yes | 5c | 1,107$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.53 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4189…0c8fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,042$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes | 6c | 1,014$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e24…70a6backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 10c | 987.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9d…68dbbacked Yes | 2c | 918.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 122 | 13.9%17 W · 105 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c25…8d52backed Yes | 3c | 878.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 194 | 8.8%17 W · 177 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed Yes | 6c | 866.01$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.46 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 11c | 863.14$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.15 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 5c | 833.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 2c | 759.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 279 | 4.7%13 W · 266 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x010d…113fbacked Yes | 6c | 747.22$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0067…446fbacked Yes | 3c | 705.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…881bbacked Yes | 4c | 678.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d44…7ba3backed Yes | 2c | 657.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 57 | 14%8 W · 49 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x440b…8987backed Yes | 5c | 620.15$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7492…8652backed Yes | 6c | 589.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 5c | 581.35$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb364…d7a3backed Yes | 2c | 568.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4e…9a3dbacked Yes | 4c | 546.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8891…b5fcbacked Yes | 3c | 543.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c85…410dbacked Yes | 11c | 511.28$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.71 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecb…a693backed Yes | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 122 | 4.9%6 W · 116 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +213.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 261 | 5.4%14 W · 247 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23ff…1ea2backed Yes | 3c | 460.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 3c | 457.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes | 3c | 452.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 250 | 23.2%58 W · 192 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb61…ff59backed Yes | 12c | 424.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes | 5c | 419.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 416 | 10.6%44 W · 372 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3947…a5a9backed Yes | 10c | 414.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6a…c77cbacked Yes | 7c | 366.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +85.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x468e…552ebacked Yes | 6c | 360.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95cd…4f91backed Yes | 6c | 327.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x396a…d87ebacked Yes | 8c | 303.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…ebe8backed Yes | 12c | 301.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec4…6529backed Yes | 6c | 287.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8da8…0ee2backed Yes | 9c | 275.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94f4…ea54backed Yes | 4c | 272.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b58…09eabacked Yes | 5c | 237.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f24…b841backed Yes | 11c | 228.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae80…ca34backed Yes | 9c | 222.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15eb…706fbacked Yes | 11c | 218.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes | 8c | 216.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 5c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb907…8d5bbacked Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e5…ffcebacked Yes | 11c | 182.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22cf…f6e6backed Yes | 9c | 133.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf176…a9d1backed Yes | 9c | 125.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…0d2cbacked Yes | 9c | 125.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.