Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x755a68b54266fd2540c91035a8bfd5ee3a4cee4a1656f42da55b22394da0bd27
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $556,075
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $458,971
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $556,075 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 0c | 93,946$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.87 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 2c | 41,072$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.58 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c0…c100backed Yes | 1c | 13,559$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.02 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 10,268$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.97 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 2c | 8,860$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.49 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 0c | 8,823$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.42 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5a…4d52backed Yes | 2c | 8,105$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 2c | 7,705$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.49 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes | 1c | 5,498$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.83 | 218 | 18.3%40 W · 178 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes | 3c | 5,294$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.03 | 146 | 25.3%37 W · 109 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes | 1c | 5,274$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 342 | 3.5%12 W · 330 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes | 1c | 4,500$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 125 | 28%35 W · 90 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 2c | 4,296$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.55 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 3c | 3,803$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91d8…fbc5backed Yes | 2c | 3,705$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 90 | 12.2%11 W · 79 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -42%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x552c…be63backed Yes | 1c | 3,039$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 143 | 14%20 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x332f…fbb5backed No | 73c | 2,997$2,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,827$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5331…69d8backed Yes | 1c | 2,803$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +132.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe37b…0e27backed Yes | 1c | 2,736$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 17.2%11 W · 53 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55bf…9ee3backed Yes | 3c | 2,497$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.92 | 85 | 27.1%23 W · 62 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…54b3backed Yes | 2c | 2,125$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 70 | 25.7%18 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ca…3f6ebacked Yes | 5c | 2,125$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.25 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 4c | 2,015$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.78 | 562 | 8.9%50 W · 512 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes | 1c | 1,935$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 384 | 4.7%18 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d3…8e8fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,678$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 131 | 16.8%22 W · 109 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b27…7bfdbacked Yes | 2c | 1,538$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.21 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf707…a432backed Yes | 2c | 1,325$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,304$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 434 | 5.1%22 W · 412 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6971…d4a4backed Yes | 1c | 1,300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda6f…9382backed Yes | 1c | 1,244$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47ff…3cc4backed Yes | 1c | 1,231$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 4c | 1,186$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.81 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d44…7ba3backed Yes | 3c | 1,173$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 57 | 14%8 W · 49 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 1,152$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.63 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7a…b932backed Yes | 1c | 1,125$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 1c | 1,035$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 68 | 2.9%2 W · 66 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd345…9a15backed Yes | 18c | 1,018$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.55 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +115.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4638…489fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38b3…1e06backed Yes | 4c | 999.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 212 | 15.1%32 W · 180 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…e1e1backed Yes | 20c | 932.56$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.06 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c6c…0ed3backed Yes | 21c | 894.79$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 4c | 799.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 259 | 5.4%14 W · 245 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…5964backed Yes | 29c | 785.79$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…57b2backed Yes | 3c | 772.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 84 | 9.5%8 W · 76 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | +105%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04f5…a10ebacked Yes | 4c | 749.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 77 | 11.7%9 W · 68 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 720.54$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.05 | 491 | 6.7%33 W · 458 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 3c | 670$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Yes | 14c | 609.17$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.76 | 233 | 21%49 W · 184 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…1930backed Yes | 2c | 568.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5830…f928backed Yes | 2c | 566.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 166 | 11.4%19 W · 147 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 16c | 523.39$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.55 | 292 | 25%73 W · 219 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3a…1550backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 5c | 500$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 211 | 4.7%10 W · 201 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 475$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 691 | 5.5%38 W · 653 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 360 | 18.6%67 W · 293 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36e7…0b6bbacked No | 76c | 399.98$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 248 | 73%181 W · 67 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…bfcabacked Yes | 26c | 378.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 137 | 17.5%24 W · 113 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 78c | 371.66$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.44 | 315 | 65.1%205 W · 110 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2f…a285backed Yes | 16c | 362$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.92 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 5c | 305$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 279 | 4.7%13 W · 266 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3333…6d86backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 75 | 16%12 W · 63 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…bd41backed Yes | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 161 | 19.9%32 W · 129 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 73c | 299.99$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8690…ac15backed Yes | 15c | 299.97$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c98…6f55backed Yes | 24c | 259.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.31 | 228 | 24.1%55 W · 173 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 20c | 224.47$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.48 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 261 | 5.4%14 W · 247 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8114…085abacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 127 | 14.2%18 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6faa…787bbacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03dd…163bbacked Yes | 22c | 171.82$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 23c | 149.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad2…e985backed Yes | 17c | 140.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 148 | 8.8%13 W · 135 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e66…0d3abacked Yes | 22c | 134.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 334 | 15.6%52 W · 282 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 9c | 131.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 439 | 33%145 W · 294 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab6…fbeebacked Yes | 18c | 120.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb963…703bbacked Yes | 22c | 118.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb761…e8b9backed Yes | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5048…4b29backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7896…6653backed Yes | 23c | 104.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a63…b216backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4b…71f0backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 93 | 10.8%10 W · 83 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd42…3dd1backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6aad…3a85backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa4…6808backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cc…0540backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +66%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf369…17d3backed Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -45%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e1…d025backed No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae5c…1216backed Yes | 22c | 54.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb109…ecf4backed Yes | 26c | 53.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 73 | 20.5%15 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0384…639bbacked Yes | 27c | 49.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 261 | 67%175 W · 86 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8011…7de8backed Yes | 25c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5540…0328backed No | 76c | 31.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…e33ebacked No | 76c | 20.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcda1…3ba6backed No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fd…fe30backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.