Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed6306484d35e3b3c2401574dd0546888f91b19b84350385184ecef82e4cf2b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $518,445
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $356,781
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $518,445 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 253 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x42b3…25babacked Yes | 1c | 37,082$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.09 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 11c | 35,169$3,860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,859.95 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 1c | 29,341$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.78 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a01…ca6dbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 7c | 12,487$812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$811.82 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 9,874$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.21 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 6c | 8,005$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.9 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 3c | 7,714$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.78 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…54b3backed Yes | 5c | 7,695$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.95 | 70 | 25.7%18 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 2c | 5,900$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.5 | 238 | 19.3%46 W · 192 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 4c | 5,673$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.73 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 15c | 5,064$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.18 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes | 3c | 5,000$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 125 | 28%35 W · 90 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 1c | 4,683$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.52 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes | 6c | 4,437$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.46 | 146 | 25.3%37 W · 109 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 5c | 4,373$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.81 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Yes | 8c | 4,015$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.48 | 233 | 21%49 W · 184 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 2c | 3,830$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.82 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f3…7e7fbacked Yes | 10c | 3,173$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.95 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes | 6c | 3,159$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.76 | 218 | 18.3%40 W · 178 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 11c | 3,142$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.7 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf56b…f7c6backed Yes | 15c | 3,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 7c | 2,889$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.29 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…4c60backed Yes | 30c | 2,811$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$829.68 | 87 | 42.5%37 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe37b…0e27backed Yes | 1c | 2,668$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 64 | 17.2%11 W · 53 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 78c | 2,542$1,981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.41 | 169 | 69.2%117 W · 52 L | +17.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +13%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 14c | 2,499$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.38 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed Yes | 3c | 2,331$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.6 | 202 | 26.7%54 W · 148 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,321$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.14 | 212 | 20.3%43 W · 169 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +610.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,273$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.77 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 5c | 2,262$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.31 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22bc…68d5backed Yes | 17c | 2,190$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf707…a432backed Yes | 3c | 2,178$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.31 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38b3…1e06backed Yes | 9c | 2,000$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 212 | 15.1%32 W · 180 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 10c | 1,981$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.83 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 4c | 1,871$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.04 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,737$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.12 | 434 | 5.1%22 W · 412 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e28…340abacked Yes | 1c | 1,626$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf4e…e3a2backed Yes | 12c | 1,546$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.4 | 99 | 21.2%21 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 13cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked Yes | 20c | 1,525$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.91 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 5c | 1,506$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.05 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3903…0a7ebacked Yes | 17c | 1,501$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.88 | 342 | 3.5%12 W · 330 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x717e…ca8bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,500$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.95 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc201…eeb2backed Yes | 10c | 1,398$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.08 | 133 | 13.5%18 W · 115 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99fd…9028backed Yes | 8c | 1,300$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 121 | 12.4%15 W · 106 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c85…410dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,248$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa656…6db5backed Yes | 4c | 1,243$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23ff…1ea2backed Yes | 20c | 1,198$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.68 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 17c | 1,179$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.7 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 10c | 1,172$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.78 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26e2…1a63backed Yes | 2c | 1,152$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5b…4a17backed Yes | 6c | 1,100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 142 | 16.9%24 W · 118 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 13c | 1,074$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.64 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8930…393bbacked Yes | 24c | 1,060$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.15 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 20c | 1,050$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.04 | 292 | 25%73 W · 219 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…e6e3backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 154 | 13%20 W · 134 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3506…a7ecbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 112 | 8.9%10 W · 102 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf640…bc3ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 105 | 23.8%25 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c0…c100backed Yes | 10c | 999.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1c…aebebacked Yes | 11c | 957.22$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.42 | 131 | 21.4%28 W · 103 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d3…8e8fbacked Yes | 19c | 915$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.66 | 131 | 16.8%22 W · 109 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…8808backed Yes | 29c | 875.53$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.92 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47e4…28b8backed Yes | 12c | 857.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 83 | 16.9%14 W · 69 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +79.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb06…8778backed Yes | 28c | 844.8$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.71 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b69…16d4backed Yes | 5c | 830.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 223 | 27.8%62 W · 161 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d44…7ba3backed Yes | 18c | 813.31$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 57 | 14%8 W · 49 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b27…7bfdbacked Yes | 4c | 810.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c0…eb7abacked Yes | 14c | 809.14$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.5 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x986e…88d7backed Yes | 9c | 799.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.6 | 108 | 11.1%12 W · 96 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36e7…0b6bbacked No | 76c | 799.98$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193 | 248 | 73%181 W · 67 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes | 2c | 799.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 416 | 10.6%44 W · 372 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bee…5628backed Yes | 24c | 793.9$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.42 | 97 | 16.5%16 W · 81 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 10c | 791$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.56 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3643…65e3backed Yes | 2c | 768.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 18c | 743.25$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.57 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf885…37e8backed Yes | 15c | 700$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 77 | 16.9%13 W · 64 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6971…d4a4backed Yes | 5c | 694.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55f6…6c92backed Yes | 7c | 653.71$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.57 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 6cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 13c | 652.48$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.72 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 16c | 634.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 2c | 600$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5a…4d52backed Yes | 19c | 600$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…e492backed Yes | 4c | 599.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 179 | 24.6%44 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe553…e95dbacked Yes | 11c | 597.68$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe258…be54backed Yes | 5c | 575.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb533…9e2bbacked Yes | 3c | 573.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes | 29c | 570.97$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.71 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 72c | 564.57$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.68 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda6f…9382backed Yes | 5c | 561.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb556…889cbacked Yes | 24c | 537.21$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.63 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x804c…1658backed Yes | 12c | 530.07$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 103 | 21.4%22 W · 81 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 76c | 521$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.93 | 315 | 65.1%205 W · 110 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…55cabacked Yes | 24c | 520.61$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.76 | 117 | 30.8%36 W · 81 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…77d1backed Yes | 8c | 512.29$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.18 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes | 6c | 511.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 384 | 4.7%18 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed Yes | 8c | 508.1$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.57 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6a…c77cbacked Yes | 3c | 506.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +85.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cd…432cbacked Yes | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.