Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa869c02f6b1e61f620136469610466a3028d98920a9ee1213e37a5fa7341a141
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $166,025
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $120,026
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $166,025 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 1c | 23,595$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.19 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 1c | 22,491$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.29 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 2c | 17,002$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.18 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…1930backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 1c | 3,173$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 3,003$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.11 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 1c | 2,857$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.32 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,179$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 9c | 1,666$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.94 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 3c | 1,429$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.79 | 211 | 4.7%10 W · 201 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,259$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.64 | 259 | 5.4%14 W · 245 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 983.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 491 | 6.7%33 W · 458 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 555.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 691 | 5.5%38 W · 653 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7896…6653backed Yes | 9c | 552.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.71 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35be…e758backed Yes | 9c | 544.44$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…6bd7backed Yes | 8c | 493.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.94 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad2…e985backed Yes | 3c | 449.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 148 | 8.8%13 W · 135 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae80…ca34backed Yes | 8c | 423.33$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c19…e631backed Yes | 3c | 401.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 6c | 399.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 360 | 18.6%67 W · 293 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 5c | 299.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 261 | 5.4%14 W · 247 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 562 | 8.9%50 W · 512 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8011…7de8backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…6eadbacked Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcea5…0750backed Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1481…f6ebbacked Yes | 10c | 136.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe901…3139backed Yes | 9c | 122.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -80%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa4…6808backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.