Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac995bf50a35381e6f2a9f20fb02752367d1817d69ec2e962f056b4419673dfc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $336,173
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $269,968
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $336,173 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 257 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 5c | 15,234$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810.43 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 1c | 11,776$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.52 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd66…b9b1backed No | 58c | 6,790$3,938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,851.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe69d…3d42backed Yes | 42c | 6,790$2,852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,851.77 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 6c | 6,673$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.05 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 8c | 6,230$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.17 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 2c | 5,517$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.69 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 11c | 5,000$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.69 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4c…e850backed Yes | 12c | 4,865$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -58%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 8c | 4,555$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.85 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 9c | 4,382$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.36 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 22c | 4,160$908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$907.86 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 9c | 4,000$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.41 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 23c | 3,941$909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$909.31 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf56b…f7c6backed Yes | 48c | 3,798$1,831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,830.9 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 11c | 3,675$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.12 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b3…25babacked Yes | 9c | 3,638$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.71 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 5c | 3,417$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.4 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 3,401$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.22 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes | 14c | 2,740$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.98 | 125 | 28%35 W · 90 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 20c | 2,537$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.83 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 6c | 2,305$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.49 | 434 | 5.1%22 W · 412 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c8…56e4backed Yes | 18c | 2,284$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.72 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 6c | 2,150$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 238 | 19.3%46 W · 192 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e43…395bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,109$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccbc…c4cabacked Yes | 24c | 2,031$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 19c | 2,016$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.24 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 11c | 2,000$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.37 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5331…69d8backed No | 72c | 2,000$1,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.99 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +132.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 67c | 1,872$1,254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.26 | 234 | 64.5%151 W · 83 L | +23.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8da8…0ee2backed Yes | 24c | 1,834$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.43 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes | 5c | 1,730$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.04 | 519 | 8.3%43 W · 476 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes | 28c | 1,670$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.76 | 146 | 25.3%37 W · 109 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd86…f6adbacked Yes | 7c | 1,566$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…b4c7backed No | 65c | 1,410$913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.79 | 124 | 29.8%37 W · 87 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8be…4002backed Yes | 19c | 1,333$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5898…3dd9backed Yes | 12c | 1,199$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.73 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -27%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5578backed Yes | 2c | 1,198$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 289 | 12.8%37 W · 252 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 2c | 1,193$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x226a…6411backed Yes | 37c | 1,159$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.38 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4978…956bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,143$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 479 | 8.6%41 W · 438 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Yes | 15c | 1,051$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.08 | 233 | 21%49 W · 184 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 1,050$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1c…aebebacked Yes | 8c | 1,037$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.08 | 131 | 21.4%28 W · 103 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94f4…ea54backed Yes | 14c | 1,023$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.08 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 562 | 8.9%50 W · 512 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc168…5024backed Yes | 13c | 999.99$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.5 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf667…2abcbacked Yes | 1c | 999.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 126 | 19%24 W · 102 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda1d…6192backed Yes | 52c | 954.89$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9d…68dbbacked Yes | 16c | 946.21$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.23 | 122 | 13.9%17 W · 105 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23ff…1ea2backed Yes | 8c | 935.54$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 887.45$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 491 | 6.7%33 W · 458 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bde…c710backed Yes | 11c | 882.34$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cd…432cbacked No | 52c | 805.19$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.3 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 3c | 771.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 211 | 4.7%10 W · 201 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab80…7923backed No | 65c | 771.67$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes | 27c | 759.69$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.7 | 198 | 19.7%39 W · 159 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 743.86$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.8 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bee…5628backed Yes | 51c | 738.39$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.81 | 97 | 16.5%16 W · 81 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c25…8d52backed Yes | 7c | 703.71$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 194 | 8.8%17 W · 177 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 698.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 691 | 5.5%38 W · 653 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9804…d512backed Yes | 4c | 694.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae5c…1216backed Yes | 4c | 689.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92d3…17adbacked Yes | 7c | 671.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 80c | 626.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.74 | 315 | 65.1%205 W · 110 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 36c | 599.99$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…e492backed Yes | 40c | 599.71$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.34 | 179 | 24.6%44 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x986e…88d7backed Yes | 20c | 596.46$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.22 | 108 | 11.1%12 W · 96 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 69c | 592.23$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.41 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce7…04eebacked Yes | 25c | 561.76$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 5c | 557.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 292 | 25%73 W · 219 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d8…fbc5backed Yes | 6c | 553.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 90 | 12.2%11 W · 79 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -42%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f24…b841backed Yes | 30c | 546.11$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.37 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6971…d4a4backed Yes | 8c | 542$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…ebe8backed Yes | 24c | 535.43$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d8…415cbacked No | 80c | 528.44$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.27 | 85 | 65.9%56 W · 29 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb20…2220backed Yes | 10c | 523.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes | 10c | 520.41$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.54 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 3c | 517.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 259 | 5.4%14 W · 245 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 8c | 505.26$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 9c | 503.73$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x565d…5a48backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes | 35c | 499.99$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.5 | 416 | 10.6%44 W · 372 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 20c | 498.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eea…726bbacked Yes | 39c | 497.88$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.14 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d44…7ba3backed Yes | 21c | 497.4$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.95 | 57 | 14%8 W · 49 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 13c | 495.24$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.64 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 4c | 493$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 8c | 487.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 10c | 478.85$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.08 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb3…16e7backed Yes | 10c | 476.09$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 119 | 18.5%22 W · 97 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0e…6369backed Yes | 42c | 470.91$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes | 11c | 468.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.33 | 250 | 23.2%58 W · 192 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b35…12b3backed No | 78c | 459.99$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.14 | 237 | 35.4%84 W · 153 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02ca…3f6ebacked Yes | 10c | 456.22$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.96 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…6f25backed Yes | 35c | 451.94$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 3c | 451.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 243 | 7%17 W · 226 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac28…0d06backed Yes | 10c | 450$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 93 | 7.5%7 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x804c…1658backed Yes | 12c | 445.31$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 103 | 21.4%22 W · 81 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.