Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61be73d1b77aaeae22645d87834eab087cf766c444207c9a77cfcb5d8417635a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $362,425
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $341,146
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $362,425 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 385 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8496…fb5dbacked Yes | 0c | 54,000$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 55c | 10,683$5,845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,845.03 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42b3…25babacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 38c | 9,928$3,752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,752.32 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 56c | 6,603$3,689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,914.03 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf56b…f7c6backed Yes | 52c | 5,630$2,927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,927.03 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6369…dadbbacked Yes | 10c | 4,700$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.95 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…0a3cbacked No | 80c | 4,451$3,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890.11 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 10c | 4,156$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.34 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb7…1e0dbacked Yes | 17c | 4,050$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.43 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 48c | 4,012$1,938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,073.65 | 169 | 69.2%117 W · 52 L | +17.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +13%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc775…6b22backed Yes | 6c | 3,998$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.88 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +4.1wins | +0.20per pick | 9cpaid | +299.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 7c | 3,500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 42c | 3,046$1,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,759.72 | 234 | 64.5%151 W · 83 L | +23.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes | 16c | 2,563$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 198 | 19.7%39 W · 159 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 30c | 2,115$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.58 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 2,107$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.7 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes | 45c | 2,103$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950.26 | 125 | 28%35 W · 90 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed No | 41c | 2,014$822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,191.86 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes | 53c | 1,849$976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$976.01 | 146 | 25.3%37 W · 109 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 28c | 1,717$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.29 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9e…4580backed No | 77c | 1,547$1,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.38 | 56 | 25%14 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…8808backed Yes | 65c | 1,536$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb06…8778backed Yes | 64c | 1,406$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 49c | 1,406$694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711.22 | 195 | 50.3%98 W · 97 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 23c | 1,385$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.04 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 10c | 1,378$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.7 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 6c | 1,304$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.46 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 73c | 1,293$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.72 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c6c…0ed3backed Yes | 52c | 1,274$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc168…5024backed Yes | 53c | 1,200$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.53 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed No | 36c | 1,184$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.07 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x226a…6411backed Yes | 43c | 1,159$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.88 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes | 37c | 1,109$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.46 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ed…b5bcbacked No | 52c | 1,109$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.6 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 25c | 1,094$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.67 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 15c | 1,066$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.9 | 83 | 20.5%17 W · 66 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4d…0645backed No | 42c | 1,059$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.36 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 52cpaid | +101%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x34a6…558bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,036$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 181 | 23.8%43 W · 138 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92d3…17adbacked Yes | 10c | 1,026$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 20c | 1,017$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.84 | 292 | 25%73 W · 219 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3506…a7ecbacked Yes | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 112 | 8.9%10 W · 102 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38b3…1e06backed Yes | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 212 | 15.1%32 W · 180 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed Yes | 45c | 999.99$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445 | 202 | 26.7%54 W · 148 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 9c | 995.68$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.61 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…a5d4backed Yes | 70c | 991.97$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.37 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 24c | 975.44$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.09 | 238 | 19.3%46 W · 192 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d44…7ba3backed Yes | 7c | 974.23$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 57 | 14%8 W · 49 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad4a…ddb8backed No | 37c | 967.44$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 31c | 931.7$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.67 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3259…54b9backed Yes | 68c | 898.31$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.57 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…4c60backed Yes | 75c | 853.3$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639 | 87 | 42.5%37 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 7c | 849.98$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 10c | 811.64$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.66 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c6…d67ebacked Yes | 74c | 800$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9d…68dbbacked Yes | 44c | 797.07$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.06 | 122 | 13.9%17 W · 105 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 75c | 778.46$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.36 | 315 | 65.1%205 W · 110 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda1d…6192backed Yes | 65c | 772.49$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 9c | 765.41$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.54 | 259 | 5.4%14 W · 245 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5e…ef7abacked Yes | 53c | 763.15$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.94 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bee…5628backed Yes | 26c | 754.95$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.46 | 97 | 16.5%16 W · 81 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes | 44c | 749.98$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.39 | 416 | 10.6%44 W · 372 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 62c | 749.94$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.78 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 21c | 733.5$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.55 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…b4c7backed Yes | 58c | 718.61$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.19 | 124 | 29.8%37 W · 87 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x915b…2729backed Yes | 16c | 627.41$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.51 | 122 | 18.9%23 W · 99 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe199…4a01backed Yes | 64c | 625.15$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf667…2abcbacked Yes | 38c | 622.36$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.38 | 126 | 19%24 W · 102 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd345…9a15backed Yes | 46c | 617.53$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.87 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +115.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02b6…8f5fbacked No | 49c | 610.15$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.08 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x804c…1658backed Yes | 32c | 600$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.49 | 103 | 21.4%22 W · 81 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 9c | 599.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 491 | 6.7%33 W · 458 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…e492backed Yes | 43c | 599.97$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.41 | 179 | 24.6%44 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5898…3dd9backed Yes | 27c | 596.07$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.67 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -27%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 50c | 579.01$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.76 | 439 | 33%145 W · 294 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf33a…1e9fbacked No | 45c | 559.09$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.91 | 99 | 26.3%26 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e5…ffcebacked Yes | 51c | 550.26$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.12 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55bf…9ee3backed No | 59c | 510.13$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.13 | 85 | 27.1%23 W · 62 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x986e…88d7backed Yes | 44c | 509.99$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.7 | 108 | 11.1%12 W · 96 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd57e…3a19backed No | 26c | 500$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2616…8d3cbacked Yes | 56c | 500$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 9c | 500$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 211 | 4.7%10 W · 201 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad2…e985backed Yes | 11c | 494.41$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 148 | 8.8%13 W · 135 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 47c | 485$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.36 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08b0…2487backed Yes | 60c | 428.83$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1264…31e5backed Yes | 75c | 418.86$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.65 | 88 | 26.1%23 W · 65 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91d8…fbc5backed Yes | 15c | 406.95$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.64 | 90 | 12.2%11 W · 79 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -42%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e66…0d3abacked Yes | 30c | 405.04$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 334 | 15.6%52 W · 282 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae5c…1216backed Yes | 13c | 402.27$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 31c | 400$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 360 | 18.6%67 W · 293 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…4362backed Yes | 17c | 399.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 90 | 15.6%14 W · 76 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99fd…9028backed Yes | 57c | 399.98$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.99 | 121 | 12.4%15 W · 106 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 9c | 394.57$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 42c | 392.79$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.65 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f24…b841backed Yes | 55c | 392.11$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.32 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 47c | 383.35$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.95 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8157…f6ebbacked Yes | 58c | 380$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc201…eeb2backed Yes | 53c | 379.35$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.48 | 133 | 13.5%18 W · 115 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 8c | 356.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 691 | 5.5%38 W · 653 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.