TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7ffa…d06b

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
305
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: Tweets, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Tweets at 55 out of 100; worst Token Launches at 49.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT24442.6%104 W · 140 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 244 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on July 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$61.25
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on July 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.23
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.72
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on July 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.77
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+498.8%+$64.13
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.42
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+39.6%+$28.2
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on July 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.41
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on July 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.86
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.75
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on July 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.16
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on July 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+139.5%+$60.93
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on July 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.3
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.57
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$33
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.37
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on July 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.27
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.19
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on July 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+25%+$20
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on July 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+132.9%+$57.06
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on July 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT+111.4%+$41.1
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$40
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on July 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT+370.6%+$78.75
Showing 25 of 244 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2026, EDT3225%8 W · 24 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+47.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Tweets — the 32 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$26
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+759.1%+$138.66
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.1
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.86
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$11.5
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+596.8%+$253.32
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$10.5
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$50.81
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$35.93
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$44.5
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+568.4%+$255.37
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$33
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$22.09
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$13
Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$247Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$246.88
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$33.35
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+669.2%+$87
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+604.2%+$111.54
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$36.4
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$21.73
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$10.68
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$36.62
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$10.6
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$14.2
Showing 25 of 32 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 10, 2026, EDT1957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Belgium?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+37.5%+$19.1
Spain vs. Belgium: Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+260.5%+$36.13
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.26
Argentina vs. Egypt: Argentina O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.5
Argentina vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Cornersbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.1
Morocco to score first vs. Canada?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+150%+$30
Canada vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Cornersbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$19.6
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Morocco?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$17.2
Will Canada win on 2026-07-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.25
Australia vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Cornersbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.35
Australia vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.8
Switzerland vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Cornersbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+100%+$11
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Austria?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Will DR Congo win on 2026-07-01?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$13.8
Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 9.5 Total Cornersbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Exact Score: Any Other Score?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+50.2%+$10.02
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 12.5 Total Cornersbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$5.56
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Norway?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+25%+$5.6
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Cornersbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+67.4%+$40.38
All 19 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 17, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-30%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Cricket Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Cricket — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indiansbacked Kolkata Knight Riders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$9.6
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians - Who wins the toss?backed Kolkata Knight Riders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+100%+$10.15
All 2 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 11, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ranger FDV above $50M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$13
Over $50M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$11.09
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$10.95
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 23, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$78.52
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.