Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7f02a0b1fa330a50aa603cbb0fb3a770d4319ef752a973f62599cb277fa46a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,183
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,449
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,183 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 26c | 601.56$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.69 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…06d8backed Yes | 44c | 456.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.12 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 13c | 198.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa821…0bc8backed Yes | 53c | 184.06$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.17 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 56c | 184$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.45 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 69c | 181.34$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.74 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcad1…7cf9backed Yes | 63c | 152.63$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.95 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 148.25$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.77 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 53c | 126.21$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.07 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 75c | 121$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.75 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 62c | 117.7$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.75 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 48c | 112.87$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.72 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.5 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 92.79$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.09 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 46c | 86.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.87 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 12c | 84.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 34c | 84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 30c | 83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.47 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 36c | 82.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.49 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 48c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 50c | 78.72$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.57 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 31c | 73.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked No | 37c | 72.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 45c | 70.49$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.47 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 70c | 70.34$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.24 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 67.95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 67c | 67.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.79 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 47c | 67.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 36c | 64.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 60c | 63.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.87 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 62c | 57.57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 44c | 51.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 39c | 48.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf87b…071fbacked Yes | 55c | 45.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 44.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.02 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 35c | 41.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.18 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x786f…6674backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 27c | 36.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.87 | 93 | 38.7%36 W · 57 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cda…d7c6backed Yes | 44c | 36.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa687…53a5backed Yes | 38c | 36.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 74c | 35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 50c | 34.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 65c | 31.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1e…862ebacked No | 53c | 30.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83aa…35bbbacked No | 72c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 73c | 29.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 67c | 28.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 57c | 26.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 47c | 26.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 49c | 25.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce0…a730backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…acb7backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 68 | 69.1%47 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ae…bad5backed No | 64c | 24.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd55b…9469backed No | 74c | 23.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked No | 71c | 21.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 20.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d55…7cbabacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -6.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd009…91afbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb67…322fbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 63c | 19.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…1d87backed Yes | 69c | 18.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 73c | 17.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 68c | 15.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed No | 68c | 15.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x965b…e530backed No | 76c | 13.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 57 | 70.2%40 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 80c | 12.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on July 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.