Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01d369a6041e09a405cd0090a3a07e3a498da84c1b9be840d6129c153f0733db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,408
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,514
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,408 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 9c | 3,019$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.46 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ae…bad5backed Yes | 6c | 1,228$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.65 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa821…0bc8backed Yes | 13c | 332.7$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.78 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 23c | 323.93$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.9 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…989dbacked Yes | 5c | 302.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 21c | 240.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6319…47dfbacked Yes | 78c | 233.58$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 11c | 224.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 12c | 217.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 12c | 209.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 28c | 207.97$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.82 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4343…8deabacked Yes | 11c | 207.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 23c | 205.57$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.06 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…48d3backed Yes | 24c | 202.21$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.13 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +8.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 76c | 174.5$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.08 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a7…ecddbacked Yes | 73c | 157.53$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.72 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 13c | 152.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 13c | 144.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 49c | 127.7$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.61 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 17c | 124.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 79c | 121$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.41 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 36c | 110.06$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.82 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 23c | 99.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 22c | 98.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 16c | 92.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 76c | 90.54$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.89 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 14c | 81.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 53c | 80.63$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.87 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…07dfbacked Yes | 20c | 80.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…1d87backed Yes | 19c | 78.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…da58backed Yes | 69c | 77.8$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…80c0backed No | 54c | 74.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.55 | 30 | 83.3%25 W · 5 L | +5.7wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 19c | 71.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 77c | 70.33$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1906…c647backed No | 75c | 66.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 79c | 59.7$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 78c | 57.22$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 24c | 54.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 61c | 53.28$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 80c | 52.72$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 31c | 43.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5597…0c9fbacked No | 44c | 41.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.41 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0411…4fedbacked Yes | 72c | 41.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…7f8abacked No | 80c | 39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked No | 77c | 38.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked No | 46c | 37.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 36c | 35.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa23e…bcf5backed Yes | 77c | 28.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 72c | 26.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 39c | 25.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x826c…80c6backed Yes | 59c | 22.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 70cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…f74cbacked No | 78c | 21.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 19.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 72c | 19.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 72c | 19.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 58c | 18.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 67c | 16.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on July 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.