Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbaf71342933a635097642fadf9ca93cb780aa4760b3f44890995de606412103b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,428
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,837
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,428 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed No | 64c | 1,544$981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980.58 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 52c | 918.74$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.72 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 35c | 472.82$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.12 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 51c | 430.03$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.68 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 57c | 306.94$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.17 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 42c | 282.68$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.28 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 8c | 276.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 53c | 258.48$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.44 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf64…9390backed No | 63c | 238.09$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes | 36c | 210.05$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.91 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 49c | 205.8$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.61 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 79c | 188.34$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.84 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 48c | 179.21$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.96 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked Yes | 36c | 166$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.24 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 49c | 164.1$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.1 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 73c | 154.91$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.67 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 30c | 152.77$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.01 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 38c | 142.98$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.98 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 62c | 136.69$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.44 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 49c | 130.04$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.69 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 61c | 122.77$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.59 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 51c | 122.1$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.85 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3609…3a0bbacked Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.07 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 49c | 87.87$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.88 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked No | 52c | 83.92$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.64 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 49c | 82.44$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.19 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 49c | 82.37$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 49c | 78.43$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 73.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 36c | 71.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.12 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 52c | 71$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.91 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…3ce8backed No | 51c | 70.95$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 52c | 70$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 37c | 70$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 59c | 68.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 68.22$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 49c | 63.03$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.43 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 51c | 58.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefc6…dde3backed No | 52c | 57.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 47c | 54.3$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 43c | 54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 41c | 52.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 57c | 51.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 62c | 50.69$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 26c | 50.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 35c | 49.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.09 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 37c | 48.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ee…0662backed Yes | 39c | 47.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Yes | 39c | 47.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 53c | 46.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 28c | 45.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 46c | 42.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1987…1d94backed Yes | 48c | 41.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 53c | 41.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7234…4c92backed No | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 46c | 39.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 48c | 39.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca84…6f8dbacked No | 51c | 38.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 50c | 36.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 51c | 36.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…c336backed Yes | 69c | 34.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d43…86e7backed Yes | 50c | 33.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 52c | 32.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe55…516ebacked Yes | 48c | 32.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 65c | 30.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 41c | 28.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…281bbacked Yes | 77c | 27.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 52c | 27.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 79c | 27.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 70c | 26.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 51c | 25.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 52c | 25.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 53c | 23.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed36…ac89backed No | 53c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…814abacked Yes | 47c | 21.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 61c | 21.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 62c | 21.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe17…474cbacked No | 54c | 20.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 138 | 62.3%86 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…764fbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 67c | 16.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 68c | 14.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.